US tariff impact on China-US trade flows and US freight transportation Report Interpretation

Overview

This weekly tracker assesses how US tariff uncertainty is affecting global supply chains and US freight transportation through vessel, container, port, rail, truck and air-cargo indicators. Goldman Sachs sees near-term improvement in indicated LA imports and retains a constructive medium-term view on transport volumes, while emphasizing that individual weekly readings are volatile.

Core views

The immediate signal is improving planned import activity at the Port of Los Angeles. Planned TEUs were up 12% sequentially in the latest week after +2% and -12% moves in the prior two weeks. Port Optimizer data indicates a further 22% week-on-week increase for August 14, followed by a slight 1% decline two weeks out; year-on-year growth is expected to be +24% and then +18%. Goldman Sachs says August trends should help show whether shippers are restocking, whether peak season began early, and how lower effective tariff rates are influencing import decisions amid geopolitical uncertainty. China-to-US high-frequency flow data remains mixed rather than uniformly strong. Laden vessels were down 1% week on week but up 3% year on year for July 31-August 6, decelerating from +8% year-on-year growth in the preceding week. China-to-US TEUs were unchanged sequentially but down 8% year on year, versus a 3% year-on-year decline previously. Chinese major-port throughput fell 1% week on week after a 17% increase, but was up 21% year on year versus +12% previously. The report therefore treats the data collectively and over multiple weeks rather than as a decisive single-week signal. Other freight indicators point to firmer pricing and selective volume strength. China/East Asia-to-US West Coast ocean container rates increased 11% week on week and 220% year on year, although Goldman Sachs expects volatility as global capacity shifts amid geopolitical events, surcharges and an earlier peak season. West Coast intermodal volumes rose 6% year on year after +4% in the prior week. West Coast truckload spot rates excluding fuel fell 6% week on week but were up 43% year on year, while truckload load availability declined 9% week on week and 29% year on year. Asia-Pacific-to-North America air-cargo weights and rates were unchanged on a two-week-over-two-week basis; the firm is monitoring air-capacity constraints in Gulf states and higher jet-fuel prices. Lagged data supports the case that West Coast import activity improved in June. The Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland together recorded volume growth of about 12% year on year and roughly 5% sequentially from May to June, above the historical seasonal sequential decline of about 3%. Goldman Sachs notes a strong relationship between Big Three port growth and China, Asia and Asia ex-China TEU growth. Using an estimated value per loaded TEU of about $57,000—derived from 2022 ocean trade and loaded-container data, then adjusted for roughly 3% annual inflation—the firm estimates July imports could have declined $1.82 billion year on year after an estimated June increase of about $1.55 billion. Inventory evidence is mixed. Upstream B2B inventories expanded at an index reading of 59.0 in July versus 59.1 in June, while downstream retail inventories contracted at 46.3 after 66.0. The inventory-cost index rose to 77.0 from 75.9, indicating faster cost expansion. Inventory-to-sales ratios for May fell versus April for retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers, to 1.08, 1.47 and 1.15 respectively, which the report notes does not show the build seen in the prior tariff period. For transport equities, Goldman Sachs argues that an eventual earnings bottom and upgrade cycle depends principally on volume growth, particularly higher-margin B2B, commercial and manufacturing flows. It remains positive on a cycle-recovery story into 2026, supported by a potentially more stable post-April 2 tariff planning environment, expected US manufacturing investment, bonus-depreciation incentives, possible reshoring or nearshoring, and supply-chain diversification. The firm also notes that rate-cut cycles have typically benefited transport shares and cites its economists' expectation of one rate cut in December 2026 and another in March 2027, following three cuts in 2025. Freight forwarders including EXPD and CHRW could benefit from volatility and customs-brokerage demand, while UPS and FedEx are identified as Buy-rated parcel beneficiaries because of fast-cycle logistics, air-freight exposure and global networks.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs triangulates weekly and daily freight indicators—laden vessels, TEUs, port plans, container rates, rail traffic, truck conditions and air cargo—with monthly port and inventory data. It compares sequential, year-on-year and historical seasonal changes, then links freight volumes and pricing to tariff-driven shipper behavior, inventory decisions and the prospective transport earnings cycle.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Freight supply-demand tracking through volumes, available capacity and freight rates.

  The report uses vessels, TEUs, port imports, truck availability and ocean or truck pricing to judge changes in transport demand and capacity conditions.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Tariff and sourcing changes flowing through imports, inventories, manufacturing and freight operators.

  Goldman Sachs links shipper ordering and inventory behavior to ocean, port, rail, truck, air-freight and parcel activity.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Separating freight-volume movements from freight-rate movements.

  The tracker compares TEU and vessel changes with ocean, truck and air-rate trends to distinguish demand signals from pricing effects.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• EXPD

  Freight forwarder that could benefit from trade volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to customs-brokerage demand during volatile trade conditions.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside CHRW as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Challenging year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons.

• CHRW

  Freight forwarder that could benefit from trade volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to customs-brokerage demand during volatile trade conditions.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside EXPD as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Challenging year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons.

• UPS

  Buy-rated parcel company identified as a potential beneficiary of supply-chain shifts.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics, air-freight capability and a large global footprint.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside FedEx as a parcel beneficiary.

• FDX

  Buy-rated parcel company identified as a potential beneficiary of supply-chain shifts.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics, air-freight capability and a large global footprint.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside UPS as a parcel beneficiary.

Key data

• Planned Port of LA TEUs+22% WoW next week; +24% YoY next week; +18% YoY two weeks outPort Optimizer forward indications for weeks ending August 14 and August 21.
• China-to-US laden vessels-1% WoW; +3% YoYWeek ending August 6; year-on-year growth slowed from +8% in the prior week.
• China-to-US TEUs0% WoW; -8% YoYLatest 15-day rolling-period measure.
• Ocean container rates to US West Coast+11% WoW; +220% YoYChina/East Asia to US West Coast in the most recent week.
• West Coast intermodal traffic+6% YoYUp from +4% year on year in the preceding week.
• West Coast truckload spot rates ex-fuel-6% WoW; +43% YoYLoad availability was -9% week on week and -29% year on year.
• Big Three West Coast port volumes+12% YoY; about +5% sequentially from May to JuneSequential growth was above historical seasonality of about -3%.
• Estimated July import-value change-$1.82bn YoYFollowing an estimated June increase of about +$1.55bn year on year.

Impact & implications

The report interprets improving forward LA import plans and firm transport pricing as potential evidence of freight stabilization, but not yet a clean or uninterrupted volume recovery. A sustained pickup in higher-margin commercial and manufacturing freight would be central to the earnings-recovery case for transport stocks.

Risks

• Trade-policy and geopolitical uncertainty can keep shipper ordering and freight flows volatile.
• Global capacity shifts, potential surcharges and an earlier peak season could make ocean rates choppy.
• A Red Sea reopening could add effective capacity, and year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons may become difficult.
• Weekly data is noisy, subject to revisions and should not be treated as conclusive in isolation.

What to watch

• August import patterns for evidence of restocking or an early peak shipping season.
• The effect of lower effective tariff rates on import decisions.
• Whether China-to-US vessel and TEU trends stabilize after recent year-on-year deceleration.
• Ocean capacity, geopolitical developments, air-freight capacity and jet-fuel-price effects.
• Progress toward higher-margin B2B, commercial and manufacturing freight-volume growth.