Imports at the Port of Los Angeles Remain Up YoY Over the Next Two Weeks, but Weakening Truck Loads Indicate the Front-Loading Effect Is Fading

Overview

The report uses weekly and monthly freight data to assess how tariffs, trade policy, and geopolitical developments affect freight flows from China and Asia to the US. Imports at the Port of Los Angeles and West Coast rail intermodal volumes have recently maintained YoY growth, but truck load availability and spot rates have declined markedly WoW, creating a divergence between resilient upstream imports and weaker downstream road transportation. Goldman Sachs believes this may reflect the fading of May–June front-loading, while continuing to monitor inventory restocking, peak-season timing, and a transportation-cycle recovery in 2026.

Core views

The latest high-frequency data show a divergence between rising vessel counts and weakening actual container volumes. From August 14–20, loaded container vessels from China to the US increased 1% WoW and 5% YoY, but YoY growth slowed from 10% in the prior week. Over the same period, TEUs fell 3% WoW and 0.5% YoY, versus 8% YoY growth in the prior week. The vessel data count confirmed cargo vessels that departed China for the US within the past 15 days with departure drafts exceeding 75% of maximum draft, while TEUs measure the container capacity actually utilized on those vessels. The divergence therefore indicates that the increase in vessel counts did not translate into equivalent growth in capacity utilization. Short-term planned import data at the Port of Los Angeles remain positive, although the weekly pattern may be highly volatile. Planned TEUs increased 3% WoW in the latest week, following increases of 12% and 1% in the preceding two weeks; they are expected to rise 26% WoW next week and then fall 12.5% two weeks out. On a YoY basis, growth is still projected at 12% and 11% over the next one and two weeks, respectively. The report believes the persistence of import volumes in August–September will help determine whether shippers are restocking inventories, whether the traditional peak season is beginning, and whether peak-season shipping was already pulled forward into the spring. How lower effective tariff rates affect import decisions also requires continued observation. Other Asian and port data indicate that trade flows are not uniformly aligned. On average, loaded vessels from mainland China to the US increased 7% YoY, while those from other parts of Asia declined 2%; TEUs increased 1% and 6%, respectively. The report defines other parts of Asia as Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Japan. Through the week ended August 16, throughput at major Chinese ports fell 1% WoW, better than the prior week's 9% decline, but remained down 8% YoY. These differences show that cargo origins and vessel loading patterns are changing, and no single metric is sufficient to determine the overall trade trend. Clear divergences have also emerged across transportation modes. Ocean container rates from China and East Asia to the West Coast of North America increased 1% WoW in the latest week after rising 9% in the prior week, and currently stand at 4.3 times their year-ago level. Goldman Sachs expects geopolitical events, potential surcharges, global capacity reallocation, and an early peak season to continue driving volatility. Asia-Pacific-to-North America air freight volumes declined 1% when comparing the latest two weeks with the preceding two weeks, while rates were flat. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air freight rates fell 21% MoM in July after rising 15% in June. West Coast rail intermodal volumes increased 4% YoY for two consecutive weeks, indicating continued support for some cargo flows from ports to inland destinations. Trucking data indicate that import resilience has not yet fully transmitted into road freight. West Coast truck spot rates excluding fuel fell 12.5% WoW in the latest week but remained up 19% YoY; the truck load availability index declined 9% WoW and 23% YoY. The report believes the sharp pullback in truck load availability and rates during July–August may indicate that the May–June front-loading undertaken to avoid tariffs is fading. However, as long as imports at the Port of Los Angeles continue to grow YoY and rail intermodal volumes remain positive, the West Coast trucking market may stabilize; if order activity recovers, rates and load volumes could rebound before year-end. Monthly data provide a longer-term context. Freight volumes at the three major ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland increased 12% YoY and 5% from May in June, significantly outperforming the historical seasonal MoM decline of 3%. The report notes that freight volume growth at these three ports typically has a strong relationship with growth in Asia-to-US TEUs. Based on the report's estimates, import trade value may have decreased by $1.82 billion YoY in July, compared with an estimated increase of approximately $1.55 billion YoY in June. The estimate uses approximately $2.3 trillion of ocean trade value in 2022 and approximately 44 million loaded TEUs at the 25 largest US ports to derive a value of approximately $52,000 per TEU, adjusts this to approximately $57,000 based on roughly 3% inflation over the past three years, and multiplies it by the YoY change in TEUs. Inventory signals are also mixed. The upstream business-to-business inventory index was 59 in July, slightly below 59.1 in June but still in expansion territory; the downstream retail inventory index fell from 66 in June to 46.3, moving into contraction. The inventory cost index rose from 75.9 to 77, indicating accelerating cost expansion. The report lists June inventory-to-sales ratios of 1.08, 1.48, and 1.19 for retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers, respectively, compared with 1.08, 1.47, and 1.15 in May, and concludes that there is not yet significant inventory accumulation comparable to that seen during President Trump's first term. The supply-chain congestion indicator remained at 2, while the bottleneck index fell 4% WoW, with overall fluidity approaching pre-pandemic levels. Current constraints therefore stem more from demand, inventory decisions, and trade policy than from widespread logistics congestion. At the transportation-stock level, Goldman Sachs believes tariff uncertainty in 2025, demand front-loading, and shippers' hesitation over production and inventory orders explain the transportation sector's weak performance and may cause fourth-quarter peak-season freight to fall below normal seasonal levels. The report remains optimistic about a medium- to long-term cyclical recovery but emphasizes that an earnings trough and upgrade cycle must depend on freight volume growth, particularly in higher-margin business-to-business, commercial, and manufacturing freight. Potential catalysts include Goldman Sachs economists' expectation of one rate cut in December 2026 and another in March 2027, following three cuts in 2025; the potential establishment of a more stable tariff-planning framework for shippers after April 2, 2026; increased US manufacturing investment, restoration of bonus depreciation policies, and growth in domestic freight from reshoring or nearshoring; and companies' adoption of "China+1 or +2" sourcing strategies, which may create long-term global logistics demand. The report previously upgraded trucking stocks, citing a lower probability of recession and consumer resilience. Freight forwarders EXPD and CHRW may benefit from trade volatility and surging customs-clearance demand, but YoY comparison bases for ocean freight rates will become more challenging, while the reopening of the Red Sea would increase effective capacity. UPS and FDX are both rated Buy, as their expedited logistics, air freight capabilities, and global networks can help shippers adjust their supply chains. Overall, the report's positive cyclical outlook coexists with recent weakness in trucking activity, and whether this translates into improved earnings will continue to depend on real orders and an inflection in freight volumes.

Analysis framework

The report first uses daily or weekly indicators—including vessel counts, TEUs, planned port imports, ocean and air freight rates, rail intermodal volumes, and the trucking market—to assess the immediate direction of trade flows. It then validates the trend using monthly port volumes, implied trade value, inventory indexes, and inventory-to-sales ratios. Finally, it connects changes in freight volumes, capacity, and pricing with tariff events, rate-cut expectations, manufacturing investment, and supply-chain restructuring to infer the potential effects on the transportation cycle and various transportation subsectors. The report explicitly notes that weekly data are noisy and should be assessed using multiple indicators and trends over several weeks rather than drawing conclusions from a single week's change.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  High-Frequency Multi-Indicator Freight Tracking

  The report combines data at different frequencies—including vessels, TEUs, planned port imports, freight rates, rail intermodal volumes, and truck load availability—to cross-validate the immediate impact of tariffs on trade volumes, demand, and pricing, while emphasizing multi-week trends to reduce single-week noise.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposition of Freight Volumes, Capacity Utilization, and Pricing

  Vessel counts represent the number of voyages, TEUs reflect actual container capacity utilized, and freight rates and truck spot rates reflect pricing. Separating the three helps determine whether growth in vessel counts genuinely translates into improved freight volumes and pricing.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Transmission Among Freight Volumes, Transportation Supply, and Rates

  The report uses imports and orders as proxies for transportation demand and vessel, air, and truck capacity as proxies for supply, analyzing how supply-demand changes affect ocean, air, and truck pricing and when they might create an inflection in the transportation cycle.

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  Estimating Implied Import Trade Value from TEUs

  The report divides 2022 ocean trade value by loaded TEUs at the 25 largest US ports to estimate cargo value per TEU, adjusts it for approximately 3% inflation over three years, and multiplies the adjusted per-container value by the YoY change in TEUs to estimate the YoY change in monthly import value.

• Event Dynamics and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Transmission of Tariff and Geopolitical Events

  The report examines how tariff implementation, changes to Red Sea routes, potential surcharges, US manufacturing policies, and rate-cut expectations alter shippers' ordering, front-loading, supply-chain location decisions, effective capacity, and transportation pricing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US West Coast Trucking

  Growth in imports at the Port of Los Angeles and rail intermodal volumes may help stabilize the trucking market, but fading front-loading is pressuring recent load availability.

  Strengths

  Spot rates excluding fuel remain up 19% YoY, while planned imports maintain YoY growth over the next two weeks.

  Weaknesses

  Spot rates fell 12.5% WoW, while load availability declined 9% WoW and 23% YoY.

  Comparison

  Truck load availability is significantly weaker than rail intermodal volumes, which increased 4% YoY.

  Risks

  May–June front-loading continues to recede without orders and inventory restocking taking over.

• UNP/BNSF West Coast Rail Intermodal

  Rail intermodal carries freight from West Coast ports to the US interior and serves as an indicator of how import resilience transmits into domestic transportation.

  Strengths

  Increased 4% YoY in the latest week, consistent with the prior week's growth rate.

  Comparison

  Rail intermodal volumes maintained positive growth, while West Coast truck load availability fell 23% YoY over the same period.

  Risks

  If port import growth cannot be sustained, rail intermodal volumes may also lose support.

• EXPD, CHRW

  Trade volatility and surging customs-clearance demand may benefit freight forwarders.

  Strengths

  Have business capabilities that address customs-clearance and supply-chain adjustment demand.

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparison bases for ocean freight rates will become more challenging.

  Comparison

  The report distinguishes them from parcel delivery companies that rely on expedited logistics and global networks.

  Risks

  If the Red Sea reopens, additional effective capacity may pressure ocean freight pricing.

• UPS, FDX

  Expedited logistics, air freight, and global networks can help shippers adjust their supply chains; both companies are rated Buy.

  Strengths

  Possess expedited logistics, air freight capabilities, and large global networks.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional freight forwarders, the report places greater emphasis on their expedited logistics and global network advantages.

  Risks

  Air capacity, jet fuel prices, and geopolitical events may cause volatility in freight volumes and rates.

Key data

• Loaded Vessels from China to the USWoW +1%, YoY +5%August 14–20; prior week was +10% YoY and +1% WoW
• China-to-US TEUsWoW -3%, YoY -0.5%August 14–20; prior week was +8% YoY
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los AngelesLatest week WoW +3%; next week +26%; two weeks out -12.5%YoY growth over the next one and two weeks is expected to be +12% and +11%, respectively
• Loaded Vessels from Mainland China and Other Parts of AsiaYoY +7% / -2%Other parts of Asia include Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Japan
• TEUs from Mainland China and Other Parts of AsiaYoY +1% / +6%Comparison based on average growth rates presented in the report
• Throughput at Major Chinese PortsWoW -1%, YoY -8%Through August 16; prior week was -9% WoW and -8% YoY
• Freight Rates from China and East Asia to the West Coast of North AmericaWoW +1%, 4.3x YoYIncreased 9% WoW in the prior week
• West Coast Rail Intermodal VolumesYoY +4%Also increased 4% YoY in the prior week
• West Coast Truck Spot RatesWoW -12.5%, YoY +19%Truckstop.com spot rates excluding fuel
• West Coast Truck Load AvailabilityWoW -9%, YoY -23%Indicates a marked recent weakening in trucking activity
• Asia-Pacific-to-North America Air FreightVolume -1%, rates flatThrough August 13, comparing the latest two weeks with the preceding two weeks
• Shanghai-to-Los Angeles Air Freight RatesJuly MoM -21%Increased 15% MoM in June
• Supply-Chain Congestion Indicator2The bottleneck index fell 4% WoW, with fluidity approaching pre-pandemic levels
• Freight Volumes at the Three Major US West Coast PortsYoY +12%, MoM +5%June's MoM performance relative to May exceeded the historical seasonal rate of -3%
• Change in Implied Import Trade ValueJuly approximately -$1.82 billion YoY; June approximately +$1.55 billion YoYDerived from the YoY change in TEUs and estimated cargo value of approximately $57,000 per container
• Estimated Cargo Value per TEUApproximately $57,000Estimated using approximately $2.3 trillion in 2022 ocean trade value, 44 million loaded TEUs, and roughly 3% inflation over three years; the 2022 base value was approximately $52,000
• Upstream and Downstream Inventory Indexes59 / 46.3July; June values were 59.1 and 66, respectively, with upstream still expanding and downstream shifting into contraction
• Inventory Cost Index77Higher than 75.9 in June, indicating accelerating cost expansion
• Retailer, Manufacturer, and Wholesaler Inventory-to-Sales Ratios1.08 / 1.48 / 1.19June; May values were 1.08, 1.47, and 1.15, respectively
• Goldman Sachs Economists' Rate-Cut ForecastOne cut in December 2026 and one in March 2027Following three rate cuts in 2025

Impact & implications

The report believes YoY growth in imports at the Port of Los Angeles and rail intermodal volumes may provide some support for West Coast freight, but the WoW declines in truck load availability and spot rates indicate that the earlier tariff-related front-loading is weakening. For the transportation industry to achieve sustained earnings upgrades, inventory restocking and real orders must drive freight volume growth, particularly in higher-margin business-to-business, commercial, and manufacturing freight. Over the medium term, rate cuts, US manufacturing investment, reshoring or nearshoring, and supply-chain diversification may support transportation demand, but increased effective ocean capacity and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to affect the path of recovery.

Risks

• Tariffs and global trade policy remain uncertain and may continue to disrupt shippers' production, ordering, and inventory decisions.
• Weekly freight data are noisy and may be revised, so a single week's change may not represent a sustained trend.
• May–June front-loading may continue to recede, pressuring West Coast truck load availability, rates, and peak-season demand.
• Geopolitical events, potential surcharges, and global capacity reallocation may cause sharp volatility in ocean and air freight prices.
• If the Red Sea reopens, additional effective ocean capacity may intensify YoY pressure on freight rates.
• Tariff-related demand front-loading and shipper hesitation in 2025 may cause fourth-quarter peak-season freight to fall below normal seasonal levels.

What to watch

• Monitor whether import volumes persist through August–September to determine whether shippers have begun restocking and whether peak-season shipping was already pulled forward into the spring.
• Track whether the planned 26% WoW increase in Port of Los Angeles TEUs next week and 12.5% decline two weeks out materialize, while monitoring whether YoY growth remains at 12% and 11%.
• Watch whether West Coast truck load availability, spot rates, and order activity stabilize and recover before year-end alongside growth in imports and rail intermodal volumes.
• Track Asia-Pacific-to-North America air freight volumes and rates, as well as changes in Gulf-region air capacity and jet fuel prices.
• Monitor the impact of geopolitical events, surcharges, Red Sea routes, and adjustments to global ocean capacity on container rates.
• Observe whether freight volume growth increasingly comes from higher-margin business-to-business, commercial, and manufacturing freight, thereby supporting transportation-industry earnings upgrades.