U.S. Tariff Impact Tracker: Imports May Pull Back Before Rebounding, but Trends Remain Highly Volatile

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' U.S. Tariff Impact Tracker, focused on the effects of tariff policy and trade uncertainty on U.S. imports, global supply chains, and transportation stocks. The report argues that China-to-U.S. cargo flows remain weak in the near term, weekly data are noisy, and the timing mismatch around Lunar New Year, trade policy windows, shippers' front-loading, and geopolitical conflict all contribute to unstable import pacing and freight-rate trends.

Core views

The core views are: first, the year-over-year declines in cargo vessels and TEU from China to the U.S. have widened, indicating import demand has not yet stabilized; second, planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles point to a short-term dip followed by a rebound, but year-over-year comparisons may turn negative; third, transport demand remains constrained by tariff uncertainty, but if rate cuts, U.S. manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and supply chain restructuring emerge in 2026, transport volumes could enter a cyclical recovery; fourth, increases in air and ocean freight rates must be distinguished between those driven by real import demand and those driven by capacity constraints, surcharges, and fuel costs.

Analysis framework

The report cross-validates high-frequency weekly and selected monthly data, including the number of cargo vessels from China to the U.S., TEU, planned import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, throughput at major Chinese ports, ocean container rates, WorldACD air cargo weight and rates, West Coast intermodal rail, truck load availability, truck spot rates, supply chain congestion indicators, monthly data for the three major West Coast ports, and inventory-related indicators.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency trade trackingUS Tariff Impact Tracker

  Observe the impact of tariffs on import and transport demand using weekly and monthly freight data

  This framework combines vessel, TEU, port, air freight, trucking, rail, and inventory indicators to reduce noise in any single weekly data point and to identify trend changes caused by tariffs, Lunar New Year timing shifts, and shippers' front-loading.

• Transport cycle analysis2026 Trade and Transport Scenario Roadmap

  Treat transport volume recovery as a key condition for earnings and valuation recovery

  The report argues that whether transportation stocks have bottomed and entered an earnings revision cycle depends mainly on freight volume growth, especially higher-margin B2B, commercial, and manufacturing-related flows.

• Import value estimationTEU implied trade value change

  Estimate year-over-year changes in import value using year-over-year changes in TEU

  Based on 2022 U.S. ocean trade and loaded TEU data for the top 25 ports, the report estimates value per TEU at roughly $52,000, adjusts it to about $57,000 for roughly 3% inflation, and then multiplies by TEU year-over-year changes to estimate monthly import value changes.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Transportation stocks overall

  Affected by tariffs, import demand, freight rates, and the transport volume cycle

  Strengths

  Could benefit in 2026 from rate cuts, manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and supply chain restructuring.

  Weaknesses

  Current import data and weekly freight flows remain unstable, and the transport volume trough has not yet been fully confirmed.

  Comparison

  Compared with any single weekly data point, a cross-check of ocean freight, air freight, trucking, and port indicators better captures the trend.

  Risks

  Changes in tariff policy, geopolitical conflict, energy prices, and weakening consumer demand could all drag on volumes.

• Ocean containers and ports

  Directly reflect export trends from China/Asia to the U.S. and import trends on the U.S. West Coast

  Strengths

  Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles provide a leading indicator, and rates are still rising on a week-over-week basis.

  Weaknesses

  Cargo vessels and TEU from China to the U.S. are both negative year over year, and the Port of Los Angeles is expected to turn negative year over year over the next two weeks.

  Comparison

  Vessel year-over-year trends from Mainland China are weaker than those from Asia ex-Mainland China, while TEU year-over-year trends are weak in both cases.

  Risks

  If the Red Sea or other lanes reopen and add effective capacity, rates may come under pressure; if demand is insufficient, the weekly rebound may not be sustainable.

• Air freight

  May benefit from supply chain adjustments and demand for fast logistics

  Strengths

  Air cargo weight and rates from Asia Pacific to North America are still rising, and Asia Pacific to Europe is also showing higher weight and rates.

  Weaknesses

  The increase in rates may stem from fuel prices and capacity constraints rather than real demand improvement.

  Comparison

  Air freight is more sensitive than ocean shipping to geopolitical conflict and airport capacity shifts, with a stronger short-cycle logistics profile.

  Risks

  The estimate that about 15% of air capacity is affected remains dynamic; flight recoveries and fuel-price changes could quickly alter rates.

• Trucking

  Reflects U.S. domestic freight flows and the inland transmission of West Coast imports

  Strengths

  West Coast truck spot rates excluding fuel are up 18% year over year, and load availability is up 41% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  Load availability fell 12% week over week, showing that near-term demand remains uneven.

  Comparison

  The report argues that trucking may benefit from lower recession odds and consumer resilience.

  Risks

  If demand air pockets emerge after import front-loading, freight demand in 2H25 or later could come under pressure.

• Express parcels UPS, FDX

  May benefit from fast logistics, air freight, and global networks supporting supply chain shifts

  Strengths

  The report discloses that both UPS and FDX are Buy, and their global networks and fast-cycle logistics capabilities are advantages.

  Weaknesses

  These businesses are highly exposed to macro consumer demand and fuel costs.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional ocean shipping, express parcels and air freight are better suited to supply chain switching and emergency replenishment.

  Risks

  If consumer demand weakens or enterprise inventory adjustments end, parcel volume growth may fall short of expectations.

• Freight forwarders EXPD, CHRW

  May benefit from higher volatility and stronger customs brokerage demand

  Strengths

  Trade policy changes and supply chain restructuring may increase customer demand for forwarding and customs brokerage services.

  Weaknesses

  Negative year-over-year ocean freight rates would create revenue pressure and tougher comparisons.

  Comparison

  The report discloses CHRW as Neutral and EXPD as Sell.

  Risks

  If rates keep falling or the reopening of the Red Sea adds effective capacity, forwarding-related revenue may come under pressure.

Key data

• Cargo vessels from China to the U.S.-2% WoW, -18% YoYFor the week ended April 9, the year-over-year decline widened from -15% in the prior week.
• China to U.S. TEU-5% WoW, -13% YoYFor the week ended April 9, the prior week showed -8% YoY.
• Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles+12% WoW, then expected -4% WoW, then +20% WoW two weeks laterThe next two weeks are expected to average about -11% YoY, versus +6% this week.
• Throughput at major Chinese ports-3% WoW, +7% YoYFor the week ended March 31, compared with +4% WoW and +9% YoY in the prior week.
• Ocean freight rates from China/East Asia to the North America West Coast+2% WoW, flat YoYThe prior week rose 11% WoW, and the two-week average YoY rate is about +4%.
• Asia Pacific to North America air cargo weight and rates+7% and +12%WorldACD two-week-over-two-week data, as of March 29.
• West Coast intermodal rail-2% YoYA slight improvement from -3% YoY in the prior week.
• West Coast truck load availability-12% WoW, +41% YoYShows that truck supply-demand balance and load opportunities remain volatile.
• West Coast truck spot rates excluding fuel+3% WoW, +18% YoYBased on the latest weekly data from Truckstop.com.
• Supply chain congestion trackerHeld at 2, bottleneck index -4% WoWOverall fluidity remains close to the pre-pandemic baseline, but slightly above baseline.
• Monthly volume at the three major West Coast ports+1% YoY, -5% MoM from January to FebruaryThe three ports are LA, Long Beach, and Oakland; the month-over-month decline was better than the usual seasonal -8%.
• LMI inventory indicatorsUpstream inventory 58.2, downstream inventory 60.4, inventory cost 76.2March versus February data all showed expansion, with the inventory cost index rising from 67.8 to 76.2.

Impact & implications

For investors, tariff uncertainty may temporarily pressure shipper plans and cause repeated front-loading and destocking/restocking cycles, resulting in pronounced volatility in ocean freight, air freight, trucking, and port data. The medium-term opportunity for transportation stocks still depends on whether freight volumes truly recover; if rate cuts, manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and China Plus 1/2 strategies generate more domestic and regional cargo flows, the sector could benefit, but if import demand weakens or higher energy costs weigh on consumer demand, the recovery pace may be delayed.

Risks

• The tariff policy path remains uncertain, and the arrangement after the 150-day expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs is still unclear.
• Weekly high-frequency data are highly volatile, and Lunar New Year timing shifts and shippers' front-loading may distort short-term trends.
• Geopolitical conflict may affect ocean and air freight rates through capacity constraints, surcharges, fuel, and energy costs.
• Higher rates do not necessarily mean real demand improvement; they may simply reflect cost or capacity disruptions.
• If rising energy costs weigh on U.S. consumer demand, overall freight demand could be hit more broadly.
• If the Red Sea or other lanes reopen and add effective capacity, ocean freight rates may face downward pressure.

What to watch

• Whether cargo vessels and TEU from China to the U.S. continue to worsen or stabilize over the next few weeks.
• Whether the decline next week and rebound two weeks later in planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles can translate into sustained import demand.
• The U.S. policy path before and after Sec. 122 tariff expiration, and changes in enterprise ordering plans.
• The source of rising ocean and air freight rates: real demand, capacity constraints, fuel costs, or surcharges.
• Whether West Coast intermodal rail, truck load availability, and truck spot rates improve in tandem.
• Whether LMI inventory, inventory cost, and inventory-to-sales ratios show signs of restocking or destocking.
• Whether U.S. manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and China Plus 1/2 strategies bring more domestic cargo flows.