US consumer products: beauty, personal care, consumer health and laundry: US Nielsen data show L’Oréal accelerating in beauty while Henkel loses laundry share

Overview

This is a US Nielsen tracked-channel update for European consumer-products companies. Goldman Sachs highlights volume-led acceleration at L’Oréal, softening trends at Beiersdorf, broad pressure at Haleon and Reckitt, and continued share losses for Henkel in a growing US laundry market.

Core views

US beauty and personal-care sales increased 2.6% year on year in the four weeks to September 5, composed of a 2.8% volume decline and 5.6% price/mix growth. Skincare rose 5.3% and accelerated sequentially against an easier comparison, while body care rose 5.5%; makeup and hair care grew about 3%. Wellbeing remained weak, declining 2.7%. Goldman Sachs cautions that Nielsen covers only about 40% of the US beauty market and excludes online sales, estimated at 28% of US beauty, as well as beauty specialists such as Sephora and Ulta, which tend to outperform tracked channels. L’Oréal, for which the US represents an estimated 25% of sales, grew 3.7% in the four-week period despite a tougher comparison. Growth was volume-led: volume rose 4.0% and price/mix was broadly flat. L’Oréal Paris grew 8.0%, NYX 2.2%, and La Roche-Posay accelerated to 32.2%; Maybelline declined 3.7% as volume fell 14.3%, while CeraVe declined 2.5%. The report notes that Nielsen tends to understate L’Oréal’s reported growth because it misses premium products such as Kérastase and retail-channel gains by e-commerce and beauty specialists. Other beauty results were weaker or mixed. Beiersdorf, whose US business is estimated at 10% of sales, declined 6.3%, with volume down 11.9% and price/mix up 6.4%. Eucerin fell 4.3%, Aquaphor rose 1.5% but slowed, Nivea remained weak at -3.5%, and Coppertone declined 20.6% despite US sunscreen growth of 9.8%. Unilever’s US Beauty, Wellbeing and Personal Care business, estimated at 12% of group sales, grew 1.6% on 3.2% price/mix; Dove rose 3.9%, TRESémme 0.8%, Liquid I.V. 5.3% with 7.3% volume growth, and Vaseline 17.7%, while Axe fell 11.3% with volume down 9.1%. In consumer health, category results varied: toothpaste grew 2.2%, GI care 1.3%, topical pain relief 0.8%, and denture care 2.3%, whereas internal pain relief fell 4.9%, nicotine replacement 7.9%, upper respiratory 8.5%, vitamins/minerals/supplements 1.7%, and sexual health 1.3%. Haleon’s US sales, around 30% of group sales, declined 2.5% with volume down 1.4%. Its toothpaste sales increased 5.7%, led by Parodontax at 18.1% and Sensodyne at 5.2%, but upper-respiratory sales fell 10% with share loss, nicotine-replacement sales fell 11.7%, and VMS fell 5% as Emergen-C and Caltrate declined. Haleon gained share in internal pain relief despite a 3.9% sales decline, but underperformed in GI care. Goldman Sachs again notes that Nielsen does not capture e-commerce, which has been outperforming for Haleon. Reckitt’s US sales excluding Essential Home, representing roughly 31% of sales, fell an estimated 7.8%, with volume down 2.1%. The company lost share in infant formula, where sales fell 9.6%; sexual health, down 3.7%; VMS, down 18.1%; household cleaning, down 6.8%; and dish care, down 8.3%. It gained share in upper respiratory despite sales falling 7.9%. In household products, cleaners and supply were flat for the market and dish care rose 0.7%, while laundry care increased 2.4% and detergent 1.2%. Henkel, for which the US represents about 26% of sales, underperformed the growing US laundry market. Total laundry sales rose 2.4% and detergents 1.2%, but Henkel’s total laundry sales fell 2.4% and detergent sales fell 2.9%, demonstrating category-share loss. All rose 1.0%, but Persil declined 5.2% and Purex 8.4%. P&G outperformed with total laundry sales up 3.9%, while private label declined 4.3% and also lost share. The report notes that the top three players hold more than 75% combined share and that detergent represents about 60% of the tracked US laundry market. The report provides valuation frameworks for its covered companies. L’Oréal’s €435 target is a 50/50 blend of a DCF worth €431 per share, using a 7.1% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth, and a 28x P/E approach worth €438. Beiersdorf’s €82 target includes an 85% blended DCF/P-E component and 15% M&A valuation; its DCF uses an 8.4% WACC and 2% terminal growth. Haleon’s 450p target equally blends a DCF using an 8.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth with a 19x P/E valuation. Reckitt’s 5,600p target combines an 85% DCF/multiples component with 15% M&A valuation, while Henkel’s unchanged €75 target equally blends a DCF using a 9.0% WACC and 1% terminal growth with a 13x P/E valuation.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs uses Nielsen four-week and 12-week tracked-channel data to separate sales growth into volume and price/mix, compare company and brand performance with category growth, and identify share gains or losses. It then relates US trends to each company’s estimated US sales exposure and provides company-specific DCF, trading-multiple and, where applicable, M&A-based target-price frameworks.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Nielsen sales growth is separated into volume and price/mix growth.

  The report uses this split to distinguish demand or unit-volume changes from pricing and product-mix effects across categories, companies and brands.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Discounted-cash-flow valuations using stated WACC and terminal-growth assumptions.

  For covered companies, the report estimates intrinsic values by discounting future cash flows and blends those results with other valuation approaches.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Target P/E multiples applied to Q5-Q8 EPS estimates.

  The report derives a multiples-based value by applying stated P/E assumptions to forward earnings estimates, often alongside DCF.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• L’Oréal (OREP.PA)

  Covered company benefiting from accelerating US tracked-channel growth.

  Strengths

  Sales grew 3.7%; L’Oréal Paris and La Roche-Posay were key growth drivers.

  Weaknesses

  Maybelline fell 3.7% and CeraVe fell 2.5%.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the 2.6% US beauty and personal-care market growth.

  Risks

  China recovery, US beauty slowdown, digital share loss, FX volatility and consumer demand.

• Beiersdorf (BEIG.DE)

  Covered company with deteriorating US beauty trends.

  Strengths

  Aquaphor remained positive at 1.5%.

  Weaknesses

  Sales fell 6.3%; Coppertone fell 20.6% while the US sunscreen market grew 9.8%.

  Comparison

  Underperformed the US beauty market.

  Risks

  NIVEA and derma growth, portfolio performance, M&A, input costs, tariffs and FX.

• Haleon (HLN.L)

  Covered consumer-health company with mixed category performance.

  Strengths

  Toothpaste sales grew 5.7%, led by Parodontax and Sensodyne; it gained share in internal pain relief.

  Weaknesses

  Total sales fell 2.5%; upper respiratory, nicotine replacement and VMS underperformed.

  Comparison

  Outperformed in toothpaste but underperformed in GI care and upper respiratory.

  Risks

  Lower growth, competition, downtrading, FX, M&A and litigation.

• Reckitt (RKT.L)

  Covered company facing broad sales and share pressure in tracked US categories.

  Strengths

  Gained share in upper respiratory despite category weakness.

  Weaknesses

  Sales ex Essential Home fell 7.8%; lost share in infant formula, VMS, household cleaning, dish care and sexual health.

  Comparison

  Underperformed in several categories despite modest market growth in some household segments.

  Risks

  Emerging-market macro conditions, downtrading or share loss, investment decisions, commodity-price changes and portfolio M&A.

• Henkel (HNKG_p.DE)

  Covered company losing share in US laundry.

  Strengths

  All brand sales rose 1.0%.

  Weaknesses

  Total laundry sales fell 2.4%, detergent sales fell 2.9%, and Persil and Purex declined.

  Comparison

  Underperformed the 2.4% total laundry market and P&G’s 3.9% growth.

  Risks

  Consumer-division recovery, competition from P&G and L’Oréal, M&A, Adhesives Technologies resilience and potential business separation.

• Unilever Plc (ULVR.L)

  Covered industry participant, not rated.

  Strengths

  Dove, Liquid I.V. and Vaseline grew, with Vaseline up 17.7%.

  Weaknesses

  Overall US Beauty, Wellbeing and Personal Care growth was 1.6%; Axe declined 11.3%.

  Comparison

  Growth trailed the 2.6% beauty and personal-care market.

Key data

• US beauty and personal-care sales growth+2.6%Four weeks to September 5; volume -2.8% and price/mix +5.6%.
• L’Oréal US tracked sales growth+3.7%Four weeks; volume +4.0% and broadly flat price/mix.
• La Roche-Posay sales growth+32.2%Four-week US tracked sales growth.
• Beiersdorf US tracked sales growth-6.3%Four weeks; volume -11.9% and price/mix +6.4%.
• Haleon US tracked sales growth-2.5%Four weeks; volume -1.4%.
• Reckitt US sales ex Essential Home-7.8%Goldman Sachs estimate for the four-week period; volume -2.1%.
• US total laundry sales growth+2.4%Four weeks; detergent sales rose 1.2%.
• Henkel total US laundry sales growth-2.4%Four weeks, indicating share loss against category growth.

Impact & implications

The update points to differentiated underlying US demand and competitive positions rather than a uniform consumer-products trend. Goldman Sachs emphasizes L’Oréal’s relative momentum and Henkel’s laundry underperformance, while noting that channel coverage gaps—especially e-commerce and beauty specialists—can make Nielsen results incomplete indicators of reported company growth.

Risks

• For L’Oréal, Goldman Sachs cites a slower China recovery after Daigou policy changes, a US beauty slowdown, digital-channel share loss, FX volatility and weaker consumer demand.
• For Beiersdorf, stated risks include changes in NIVEA, derma and portfolio growth, M&A outcomes, input-cost inflation, tariffs and FX.
• For Haleon, stated risks include weaker growth or pricing, more intense competition, private-label or generic downtrading, FX, M&A and litigation.
• For Reckitt, stated risks include emerging-market macro conditions, downtrading or market-share loss, investment decisions, commodity-price movements and value-creating or destructive M&A.
• For Henkel, stated risks include a stronger Consumer division recovery, less competitive pressure, accretive M&A, resilient Adhesives Technologies performance and a value-unlocking business split.

What to watch

• Whether US beauty growth remains supported by skincare and body care while wellbeing stays weak.
• Whether L’Oréal’s volume-led momentum, particularly at L’Oréal Paris and La Roche-Posay, persists.
• Whether Beiersdorf can stabilize Nivea, Eucerin and Coppertone trends.
• Whether Haleon and Reckitt recover share in weak consumer-health categories.
• Whether Henkel’s laundry sales and detergent trends improve relative to the market and P&G.
• How e-commerce and beauty-specialist performance differs from Nielsen-tracked brick-and-mortar channels.