Beauty Leads in First Month of 618 Promotions; Consumer Brands Show Broad Divergence
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Beauty Leads in First Month of 618 Promotions; Consumer Brands Show Broad Divergence
Data tracked by Goldman Sachs shows weak online sales for most consumer categories in May 2026, but beauty grew 14% year-over-year driven by subsidies and the 618 campaign, with both domestic and international brands accelerating. Athletic apparel and home appliances showed significant divergence in performance.
- Beauty category full-channel GMV grew 14% year-over-year in May, accelerating from 11% in April, showing strong momentum in the early stages of 618
- International beauty brands like Estée Lauder and L'Oréal led growth, while local brands such as Forest Sub and Proya rebounded
- Athletic apparel brands showed divergent performance; Adidas, Li-Ning, and Anta accelerated, while outdoor brands slowed due to high base effects
- Most categories, including major appliances, pet food, and infant formula, still face pressure from year-over-year declines
- Expansion of platform and local government subsidies served as a key catalyst for the acceleration in the beauty category
Report interpretation
Overview
Goldman Sachs released its May 2026 Chinese Consumer Online Brand Tracking Report, summarizing category and brand sales data from platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin. The core conclusion is that while the overall online performance of the consumer sector was weak during the first month of the 618 mega-promotion, structural divergence was extremely pronounced. The beauty category defied the trend and accelerated, becoming the brightest spot, driven by subsidies and the 618 campaign. Athletic apparel brands saw mixed results due to different promotional rhythms for 618, while most categories, including major appliances, infant formula, and pet food, continued to decline year-over-year. The report provides investors with detailed brand-level data covering multiple categories such as beauty, infant formula, athletic apparel, home appliances, jewelry, and pet food.
Core views
Demand Side: Under traditional e-commerce metrics excluding Douyin, May consumer category performance was generally weak. Looking at Tmall/Taobao/JD.com combined, women's clothing was flat year-over-year, while all other categories recorded declines: sports shoes (-2%), beauty (-4%), dietary supplements (-6%), dairy products (-9%), sportswear (-11%), small kitchen appliances (-18%), infant formula (-19%), beer (-22%), pet food (-22%), and major appliances (-31%). The report notes that beauty and dietary supplement data on Tmall/Taobao may have experienced significant base adjustments from January to May 2025. Beauty Category: Including Douyin, full-channel beauty GMV grew 14% year-over-year in May, accelerating significantly from 11% in April and 9% in Q1. This acceleration was partly due to a relatively low base from the March 8th Women's Day festival in Q1, as well as expanded subsidies from platforms and local governments. The report points out that discounts under local subsidies during 618 were broader in scope, geographic coverage, and brand participation compared to Double 11, with maximum discounts reaching 20%, further driving sales. At the brand level, local brands rebounded: Forest Sub led with 110% YoY growth, Botanee grew 43%, Shanghai Jahwa grew 27%, MGP grew 22%, Proya grew 8%, and Giant Biogene grew 6%. Bloomage Biotech and Yatsen Holding declined 19% and 36%, respectively. Among international brands, Estée Lauder Companies grew 36% (driven by main brand Estée Lauder, La Mer, and MAC), L'Oréal Group grew 16% (driven by dermatological brands like Helena Rubinstein, SkinCeuticals, and La Roche-Posay, though mass-market lines faced competition from domestic brands), and Shiseido grew 11%. LG Household & Health Care, Amorepacific, and Kao faced pressure due to poor performance of brands like Whoo, Sulwhasoo, etc. Athletic Apparel: Brand performance in May showed clear divergence. Demand during the May Day holiday was soft, but 618 promotions provided support for some brands. The report suggests combining May and June data to eliminate interference caused by different 618 promotional rhythms. Outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Descente, as well as Lululemon, slowed down due to high bases. Conversely, Adidas, Li-Ning, Anta, Fila, Bosideng, and Salomon may have accelerated due to 618 promotions. The report also reminds that brands are implementing omnichannel strategies (including emerging channels like Poizon), so online data collected by data providers may deviate from actual growth. Other Categories: Infant formula sales on Tmall/Taobao/JD.com combined declined 19% year-over-year in May, worsening from the 14% decline in April, with significant high-base effects. Foreign brands like Mead Johnson, Wyeth, and Nan declined significantly. Domestic brands covered in pet food declined 6% year-over-year, a sharp slowdown from the 22% growth in Q1. Major appliances, jewelry, and other categories also faced pressure for year-over-year growth.
Analysis framework
Goldman Sachs employs an online brand tracking methodology, collecting brand and category sales data from mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin via third-party data sources (Mojing Market Intelligence), updated monthly. The analytical主线 is: first observe overall trends at the category level (e.g., combined Tmall/Taobao/JD.com and full-channel including Douyin metrics), then drill down to the brand level, comparing the performance of local versus foreign brands, and finally explain the driving logic behind the data by integrating external factors such as platform strategies, promotional rhythms, and subsidy policies. The report emphasizes several key judgment points in its analysis: first, the difference in data scope—traditional e-commerce (Tmall/Taobao/JD.com) and full-channel metrics including Douyin may present completely different trends, which is particularly evident in the beauty category (traditional scope declined 4%, full-channel scope grew 14%); second, the interference of base effects, with the report repeatedly reminding readers to pay attention to base changes in the same period of 2025; third, monthly fluctuations caused by differences in 618 promotional rhythms, suggesting that May-June data be evaluated together; fourth, online data may not fully reflect brands' actual growth under omnichannel strategies. This progressive, multi-dimensional cross-validation analytical framework helps readers understand the consistent logic behind seemingly contradictory surface data—the overall consumption remains under pressure, but policy subsidies and promotional nodes create significant incremental opportunities in specific categories (such as beauty).
Methodology notes
Consumer demand is disturbed by promotional rhythms and policy subsidies
The report explains why the beauty category accelerated against the trend of overall weak consumption by breaking down factors such as the 618 promotional rhythm, the base effect of the March 8th festival, and the expansion of local subsidies. Essentially, it analyzes short-term demand-side external catalysts rather than supply-side structural changes.
GMV broken down by platform and channel dimensions
The report splits GMV for each brand and category across three major platforms: Tmall/Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin, facilitating observation of which channel drives growth and whether there is a cannibalization relationship between channels.
Rising online penetration makes online sales an important leading indicator of overall trends
The appendix notes that online penetration for some categories has reached 30%-35%, with most categories averaging 10%-15% and still rising. Therefore, online sales trends are increasingly important for judging overall consumption directions.
Tracking changes in brand market share
The report continuously tracks changes in market share for each brand on major e-commerce platforms, using them as leading indicators to judge brand competitiveness and corporate strategic execution. Rising market share usually implies阶段性 dominance in brand power or product strength.
Monthly prosperity fluctuations caused by high base effects and promotional rhythms
The report repeatedly warns that volatility in year-over-year growth rates for some categories and brands is due to different bases in the same period of 2025 (high bases lead to deceleration, low bases lead to acceleration) and differences in 618 promotional rhythms across months. Investors need to smooth out monthly noise to determine the true direction of prosperity.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Estée Lauder (EL.US)Leader in beauty category, GMV grew 36% YoY in May, strong performance of high-end brand matrix
- Strengths
- Estée Lauder main brand, La Mer, and MAC all recorded strong growth, occupying a leading position in the high-end beauty field
- Weaknesses
- Clinique declined 21% YoY, Bobbi Brown dipped slightly by 1%, facing pressure for some brands
- Comparison
- Led growth among MNCs, significantly outperforming Shiseido (+11%) and L'Oréal (+16%), and far better than LG H&H (-34%) and Amorepacific (-31%)
- Proya Cosmetics (603605.SS)Local beauty leader, GMV grew 8% YoY in May, core brands grew 15%, acceleration during 618
- Strengths
- Core brand Proya stable growth, sub-brands showed divergence but overall fundamentals remained robust, Douyin growth reached 64% during 618
- Weaknesses
- Mass-market products face dual competition from international brands and local competitors
- Comparison
- Growth rate is slower compared to Botanee (+43%) and Forest Sub (+110%), but volume is larger and growth stability is better
- Giant Biogene (2367.HK)Driven by Comfy brand growth, group overall grew 6% in May, accelerated to 13% in early 618
- Strengths
- Comfy brand grew 22% in May, further accelerated during 618, management confident in full-year guidance
- Weaknesses
- Collgene growth was slow (+4%), overall growth lower than some peers
- Comparison
- Growth rate lower than peers like Proya and Botanee, but trend improved during 618, and was singled out by Goldman Sachs as 'better than worried'
- Li-Ning (2331.HK)Athletic apparel brand accelerating, May data possibly pulled by 618 promotions
- Strengths
- Online growth improved in May compared to April, brand supported by promotions during 618
- Comparison
- Belongs to the accelerating camp in May along with Anta, Fila, and Adidas, while outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Descente slowed down
- Anta Sports (2020.HK)Anta and Fila brands both accelerated in May, 618 promotion was an important factor
- Strengths
- Dual-brand performance of Anta and Fila was robust, benefiting from promotional rhythm during 618
- Comparison
- Belongs to the accelerating camp with Li-Ning and Adidas, while outdoor brands like Descente slowed due to high bases
- Bosideng (3998.HK)Online growth accelerated significantly in May, supported by 618 promotions
- Strengths
- YoY growth jumped significantly from -3% in April to 39% in May, significant pulling effect from 618 promotions
- Comparison
- Growth rate was quite prominent in the athletic apparel sector in May
Key data
- Beauty Full-Channel GMV YoY Growth (May)14%Accelerated from 11% in April, significantly faster than the 9% in Q1, driven by subsidies and 618
- Combined Tmall/Taobao/JD.com Beauty GMV YoY Growth (May)-4%Traditional e-commerce metrics still declined, but Douyin channel growth of 30% largely compensated
- Estée Lauder Companies Beauty GMV YoY Growth (May)36%Driven by Estée Lauder main brand (+39%), La Mer (+42%), and MAC (+53%)
- L'Oréal Group Beauty GMV YoY Growth (May)16%Dermatological brands performed strongly; mass-market lines face pressure from domestic competition
- Forest Sub Beauty GMV YoY Growth (May)110%Highest growth among local brands, partly benefiting from a low base
- Combined Tmall/Taobao/JD.com Infant Formula GMV YoY Growth (May)-19%Worsened from -14% in April, with significant high-base effects
- Combined Tmall/Taobao/JD.com Major Appliances GMV YoY Growth (May)-31%Weakest performing among most categories, with a significant year-over-year decline
Impact & implications
The report believes that May data reflects that the Chinese consumer industry still faces overall demand pressure, but the 618 mega-promotion and policy subsidies are creating structural opportunities. The beauty category is currently the clearest highlight: on one hand, subsidies from platforms and local governments have increased (discounts up to 20%, expanded coverage), directly stimulating sales; on the other hand, international brands remain strong in high-end and dermatological tracks, while local brands have rebounded after previous adjustments, indicating that the competitiveness of domestic goods has not diminished. For athletic apparel, the report advises investors not to judge based on single-month data alone; combining May and June data is necessary to reflect the true pulling effect of 618, and online data may underestimate brands' actual growth under omnichannel strategies. For categories under continuous pressure such as infant formula, major appliances, and pet food, the report does not provide clear turning point judgments but conveys cautious signals through data. Overall, this tracking report provides investors with rich brand-level data granularity, helping to identify which brands and categories are gaining or losing market share in an environment of consumer divergence.
Risks
- Online data is collected by third-party data providers via web crawling technology, which may deviate from actual sales, especially under omnichannel strategies where online data may underestimate brands' actual growth
- 618 promotional rhythms vary by brand, causing large monthly data fluctuations; combining May and June data reflects true trends more accurately
- Changes in the same period of 2025 base may cause distortion in year-over-year growth rates for multiple categories (such as beauty and dietary supplements)
What to watch
- Brand sales data for the complete 618 cycle (May-June) to eliminate the impact of differing promotional rhythms
- Continuity and changes in coverage of local subsidy policies after 618, especially their support strength for the beauty category
- Sustainability of the rebound of local brands in the beauty category, and whether international brands can maintain their competitive advantages in the high-end track
- Actual omnichannel growth of athletic apparel brands and the degree of difference with online third-party data