China online consumer demand remained weak in March, with sportswear and leading brands relatively ahead

Overview

This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' China Consumer Connection online brand tracker updates for March 2026 and 1Q26. It covers the performance of multiple consumer categories and brands across online channels such as Tmall, Taobao, JD, and Douyin. The core conclusion is that most broad consumer categories continued to weaken in March versus January-February, and 1Q26 remained weak overall. Relative exceptions were sportswear, some women's apparel, leading beauty brands, outdoor and niche sports brands, and some domestic leaders in pet food.

Core views

First, at the category level, most categories declined yoy in March, with sportswear among the few categories posting positive growth. Second, looking at 1Q26, sportswear and women's apparel performed relatively well, but dairy, white goods, supplements, pet food, infant formula, and sports shoes remained under pressure. Third, the beauty industry showed clear divergence: Mao Geping, Forest Cabin, Shanghai Jahwa, and Botanee outperformed most domestic peers, while among multinational groups Estee Lauder, LG H&H, L’Oreal, and Shiseido showed more resilience. Fourth, sportswear slowed in March due to the timing mismatch of the Lunar New Year and the post-holiday pullback, but outdoor, niche, and certain international brands continued to show good momentum. Fifth, online data are highly informative, but because of omnichannel strategies and the expansion of emerging platforms, they cannot be mechanically equated with total brand sales.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses Moojing and other online crawler data to compare yoy GMV and sales for Alibaba, JD, and some brands on Douyin, broken down by category, platform, brand, and quarterly basis. The analysis focuses on the trend change in March versus January-February, cumulative 1Q26 performance, domestic versus multinational brand comparisons, platform mix changes, and brand share changes.

Methodology notes

• Online consumer data trackingMoojing online sales tracker

  Estimate sales from e-commerce platform page data

  Moojing uses web crawlers to track SKUs, sales volumes, and prices on platforms such as Alibaba and JD to estimate online sales at the industry, store, and brand levels. The report notes that this data may differ from actual operating results.

• Channel analysisTmall/Taobao/JD/Douyin platform split

  Split GMV growth by platform

  The report observes Tmall, Taobao, JD, and Douyin either separately or in combination to identify platform structure changes and the sources of brand growth.

• Brand comparisonDomestic vs. MNC brands

  Compare domestic and multinational brand performance

  The report compares yoy growth, share changes, and trend resilience between domestic and multinational brands in areas such as beauty, mother-and-baby, and pet food.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China consumer sector

  Macro and industry demand indicator

  Strengths

  Rising e-commerce penetration gives online data strong tracking value for consumer trends.

  Weaknesses

  Most categories remained weak in March and 1Q26 yoy, indicating insufficient broad-based consumer demand.

  Comparison

  Sportswear and some women's apparel were materially better than weak categories such as dairy, white goods, supplements, and pet food.

  Risks

  Online samples cannot fully represent all-channel sales, and platform promotion timing, Lunar New Year timing shifts, and base effects can distort yoy comparisons.

• Sportswear and outdoor brands

  Relatively favored category

  Strengths

  Sportswear remained positive in 1Q26, and momentum at Arc’teryx, Descente, Kolon, Salomon, On, and Lululemon remained intact.

  Weaknesses

  March slowed on a post-holiday pullback, and brands such as Nike lagged.

  Comparison

  adidas performed better than Nike, and outdoor and niche brands outperformed some traditional sports brands.

  Risks

  Online data may understate all-channel performance, and if post-holiday demand weakness persists, short-term growth may continue to slow.

• Beauty brands

  Clear brand divergence

  Strengths

  Mao Geping, Forest Cabin, Shanghai Jahwa, Botanee, as well as Estee Lauder, LG H&H, L’Oreal, and Shiseido, showed relatively strong performance.

  Weaknesses

  Brands or groups such as Proya, Giant Biogene, Bloomage, Perfect Diary, Amore, and Kose remained under downward pressure.

  Comparison

  Leading multinational groups were generally more resilient than many domestic brands, but some leading domestic brands grew faster.

  Risks

  Changes in Women's Day promotion timing, platform migration, and brand marketing spending can cause monthly data volatility.

• Mother-and-baby and infant formula

  Under pressure category

  Strengths

  Some brands such as Bellamy's, A2, and Biostime still posted growth.

  Weaknesses

  March infant formula online sales fell 20% yoy, and Feihe, Yili, Wyeth, and Nutrilon were weak.

  Comparison

  Some multinational brands were more resilient than domestic brands, but brand-level divergence was large.

  Risks

  High bases, demographic and demand pressures, and platform structure changes may continue to weigh on growth.

• Pet food

  Structurally divergent category

  Strengths

  China Pet Foods continued to lead in March and 1Q26, with growth contributions from Wanpy, Toptrees, and Zeal.

  Weaknesses

  Gambol weakened, and overall global brands softened.

  Comparison

  Domestic covered brands generally outperformed global brands, though domestic brands also diverged internally.

  Risks

  Single-brand growth depends on core SKUs and platform performance, and market share could be affected if competition intensifies.

• Home appliances and consumer durables

  Weak tracking category

  Strengths

  The leading robot vacuum brands and some small kitchen appliance brands performed relatively better than the industry, and Morphy Richards was strong in small kitchen appliances.

  Weaknesses

  Major categories such as white goods, kitchen appliances, and small appliances generally posted double-digit yoy declines in March.

  Comparison

  Haier and Hisense were roughly in line with industry declines, Gree was relatively weaker after strength in 2M26, and Ecovacs and Roborock outperformed the industry.

  Risks

  Weak demand, promotion timing, and base differences may continue to affect online data.

Key data

• March sportswear year-over-year growth+9% yoyCombined Tmall, Taobao, and JD basis; one of the few major categories to grow in March.
• March white goods year-over-year growth-30% yoyOne of the main lagging categories in March.
• March dairy year-over-year growth-32% yoyAmong the weakest declines in the listed major categories.
• 1Q26 sportswear year-over-year growth+26% yoyA leading performer among major categories in 1Q26.
• 1Q26 women's apparel year-over-year growth+6% yoyAchieved positive growth in 1Q26.
• 1Q26 dairy year-over-year growth-33% yoyA relatively large decline among the categories listed for 1Q26.
• March beauty online GMV-11% yoyCombined Tmall, Taobao, and JD basis; weakened further from -2% in January-February.
• 1Q26 beauty GMV+6% yoyIncluding channels such as Douyin, 1Q26 beauty GMV grew yoy as Douyin growth offset declines on Tmall, Taobao, and JD.
• Mao Geping March growth+101% yoyA leading domestic beauty brand in terms of growth.
• Forest Cabin 1Q26 growth+49% yoyOne of the strongest domestic beauty brands on a cross-channel basis in 1Q26.
• Estee Lauder 1Q26 growth+29% yoyA relatively strong performer among multinational beauty groups.
• China Pet Foods March growth+54% yoyContinued to lead among domestic pet food brands, with faster growth than in January-February.

Impact & implications

For investment judgment, the report shows that China's online consumer recovery remains uneven: broad consumer category demand is weak, but structural opportunities are concentrated in sportswear, outdoor and niche sports brands, leading beauty brands, selected pet food leaders, and brands with strong platform and channel adaptability. Investors need to distinguish between broad industry weakness and brand share gains, especially with the impact of emerging channels such as Douyin and Dewu and offline channels on traditional platform data.

Risks

• Moojing and other online data are based on platform crawlers and price-volume estimates, and may differ from brands' actual operating sales.
• Online sales penetration varies by category, so online trends cannot fully represent all-channel demand.
• Later and extended Lunar New Year timing, changes in Women's Day promotion dates, and platform classification adjustments can affect monthly yoy comparability.
• Brands are advancing multi-channel strategies across Douyin, Dewu, and offline channels, and the Tmall, Taobao, and JD basis may understate or misread some brands' actual growth.
• The report is an industry data tracker and does not constitute a full earnings forecast or valuation conclusion for any single stock.

What to watch

• Whether online consumer demand in April and 2Q26 remains weak after March or begins to recover.
• Share changes for adidas, Nike, Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and outdoor/niche brands within sportswear.
• The sustainability of growth for strong beauty brands such as Mao Geping, Forest Cabin, Estee Lauder, LG H&H, L’Oreal, and Shiseido.
• The diversion effect of emerging channels such as Douyin and Dewu on traditional Tmall, Taobao, and JD data.
• Whether weak categories such as mother-and-baby, dairy, white goods, supplements, and pet food begin to improve in demand.
• The impact of promotion timing, base effects, and category classification changes on yoy data.