China Online Beauty Market Growth Stayed Weak in April, and Tracked Companies Underperformed
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China Online Beauty Market Growth Stayed Weak in April, and Tracked Companies Underperformed
The report notes that April China beauty e-commerce market GMV rose only +1.3% YoY, while Bernstein-tracked beauty companies' aggregate GMV fell -10% YoY; L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Beiersdorf, and Henkel still gained share to varying degrees.
- April China beauty e-commerce market GMV grew +1.3% YoY, and the report notes that April contributes only about 4.9% of full-year sales.
- Bernstein-tracked beauty companies' aggregate GMV fell -10% YoY, significantly lagging the overall market and showing clear brand-level divergence and overall pressure.
- L'Oréal GMV grew +3% YoY with share up +161bps; Estée Lauder GMV grew +4% YoY with share up +144bps; LVMH, although down -7% YoY in GMV, still outperformed the tracked market and gained +116bps of share.
- Asian beauty companies were under considerable pressure, with Shiseido down -15% YoY, Proya down -21% YoY, and Giant Biogene down -22% YoY; Unilever B&PC fell -27% YoY and P&G Beauty fell -17% YoY.
Report interpretation
Overview
Bernstein's report tracks April performance in China's online beauty market, covering Tmall, Taobao, Douyin and other platforms as well as multiple global and Chinese beauty companies. The core conclusion is weak market-level growth: April China beauty e-commerce GMV rose only +1.3% YoY, while aggregate GMV for Bernstein-tracked beauty companies fell -10% YoY. Because April contributes only about 4.9% of full-year sales, the report also cautions investors against over-extrapolating from a single month, but the monthly print still points to unstable demand recovery and widening divergence among brands.
Core views
The report argues that China’s online beauty market still lacks a strong near-term recovery catalyst, with growth remaining low-single-digit and volatile. Among global leaders, L'Oréal and Estée Lauder maintained positive growth and expanded market share, while LVMH, despite a decline in GMV, still outperformed the tracked market on a relative basis; Beiersdorf was supported by La Prairie and Eucerin. In contrast, P&G Beauty, Unilever B&PC, and Asian beauty names such as Shiseido, Proya, and Giant Biogene were clearly under pressure. In luxury beauty, the report recommends a more defensive allocation amid uncertainty over the path of global luxury demand recovery, favoring high-quality names at reasonable valuations and companies with self-help improvement potential.
Analysis framework
The report uses an online-channel sales tracking framework and focuses on comparing total market performance with Bernstein-tracked companies across GMV, volumes, prices, market share changes, and 3-month trends. The analysis spans platform-level data, single-month YoY changes, 3-month trends, and brand and parent-company splits, while placing individual ratings and target prices into the context of European beauty, China cosmetics, and global luxury allocations.
Methodology notes
Measures beauty market sales performance using GMV on online platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin.
The report compares total market GMV growth with Bernstein-tracked company GMV growth; in April, the overall market was +1.3% while tracked companies were -10%, helping determine whether the brand mix is outperforming the market.
Uses basis-point changes to measure the increase or decrease in a company's or brand's share within a channel.
For example, L'Oréal gained +161bps of share, Estée Lauder gained +144bps, and LVMH gained +116bps, showing that even in a low-growth market some leaders can still capture share gains through their brand portfolios.
Compares single-month GMV growth with the 3-month trend to judge whether momentum is accelerating or slowing.
Estée Lauder's single-month GMV growth of +4% was below its 3-month trend of +21%, and Beiersdorf's +5% was below its 3-month trend of +23%, indicating that some companies' near-term momentum has slowed from earlier peaks.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- L'OréalChina online beauty tracked name; European beauty coverage stock
- Strengths
- April GMV grew +3% YoY, with share up +161bps; YSL, SkinCeuticals, and Maybelline performed well.
- Weaknesses
- Lancôme's April GMV fell -5% YoY, and some premium brands saw momentum slow.
- Comparison
- Rated Market-Perform, with a target price of €405; it was steadier than the tracked company's overall -10% performance.
- Risks
- Weak China beauty demand, brand-mix volatility, and a luxury beauty recovery that is slower than expected.
- Estée LauderGlobal beauty leader; China online beauty tracked name
- Strengths
- April GMV grew +4% YoY, with share up +144bps; Estée Lauder, Tom Ford, Jo Malone, and The Ordinary performed well.
- Weaknesses
- Single-month growth was below the 3-month trend of +21%, and La Mer's April GMV fell -15% YoY.
- Comparison
- It still posted positive growth in a low-growth market, but momentum slowed versus the earlier peak.
- Risks
- Volatility in premium skincare and luxury beauty demand, and uneven brand recovery.
- LVMHLuxury group; its beauty business is tracked in China online channels
- Strengths
- April GMV fell -7% YoY but still outperformed the tracked market's -10%; share increased +116bps; Dior Beauty and Guerlain drove share gains.
- Weaknesses
- Absolute GMV still declined; the report also notes that it may sell Fresh, Make Up For Ever, and Fenty to clean up the brand portfolio.
- Comparison
- Within the luxury framework, it sits between high quality and self-help, supported by Dior recovery, cost efficiency, and Louis Vuitton strength.
- Risks
- Uncertain recovery in global luxury demand, alcohol and spirits transformation, and family succession concerns.
- BeiersdorfEuropean beauty coverage stock; China online beauty tracked company
- Strengths
- April GMV grew +5% YoY, with share up +31bps; La Prairie and Eucerin delivered strong growth.
- Weaknesses
- Nivea GMV fell -13% YoY, and the single-month growth was below the 3-month trend of +23%.
- Comparison
- Rated Outperform, with a target price of €95.
- Risks
- Weak mass brands, the sustainability of dermatological brand growth, and channel-demand volatility.
- P&G BeautyGlobal beauty and personal care company; China online beauty tracked name
- Strengths
- Despite declining GMV, it still gained +64bps of share; SK-II provided some support.
- Weaknesses
- April GMV fell -17% YoY, Olay fell -25% YoY, and overall performance was weak.
- Comparison
- It underperformed both the overall market and L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Beiersdorf.
- Risks
- Aging core brands, online channel competition, and pricing and promotion pressure.
- Unilever B&PCPersonal care and beauty business; European coverage name
- Strengths
- It still gained +39bps of share in April.
- Weaknesses
- GMV fell -27% YoY, with AHC down -52%, Pond's down -34%, and Dove down -8%, showing broad-based weakness.
- Comparison
- Rated Outperform, with a target price of €66.90/£58, but its China online beauty monthly performance was weak.
- Risks
- Pressure on the brand portfolio, weak Asian beauty demand, and an uncertain recovery pace.
- ShiseidoChina cosmetics coverage name; Asian beauty company
- Strengths
- The report provides a clear coverage rating and target price, making comparison with peers straightforward.
- Weaknesses
- April GMV fell -15% YoY, and Asian beauty names remained under pressure overall.
- Comparison
- Rated Underperform, with a target price of 1931 JPY.
- Risks
- China demand recovery that is slower than expected, intensifying brand competition, and lower channel sales.
- ProyaChina cosmetics coverage name
- Strengths
- A local brand with strong awareness in China, and the report keeps a Market-Perform rating.
- Weaknesses
- April GMV fell -21% YoY, and short-term online performance was under pressure.
- Comparison
- Rated Market-Perform, with a target price of 62 RMB.
- Risks
- Slower online growth, intensifying competition, and lower promotional efficiency.
- Giant BiogeneChina cosmetics coverage name
- Strengths
- Rated Outperform with a target price of 45 HKD, indicating a still-positive view on medium-term relative performance.
- Weaknesses
- April GMV fell -22% YoY, and monthly sales were weak.
- Comparison
- It is rated above Shiseido and Proya within the China cosmetics coverage.
- Risks
- Volatility in efficacy skincare demand, online channel competition, and expectation revisions due to high monthly volatility.
Key data
- April GMV growth of China's beauty e-commerce market+1.3%The report says April China beauty e-commerce market GMV grew +1.3% YoY.
- April GMV growth of Bernstein-tracked beauty companies-10%The tracked companies materially underperformed the overall market.
- April sales contribution4.9%The report notes that April is a relatively small month in the full year, contributing about 4.9% of sales.
- L'Oréal April performanceGMV +3%, share +161bpsYSL, SkinCeuticals, and Maybelline performed strongly, while Lancôme weakened on the month.
- Estée Lauder April performanceGMV +4%, share +144bpsEstée Lauder, Tom Ford, Jo Malone, and The Ordinary contributed well, while La Mer weakened on the month.
- LVMH April performanceGMV -7%, share +116bpsAlthough growth was negative, it still outperformed the tracked market; Dior Beauty and Guerlain drove share gains.
- Beiersdorf April performanceGMV +5%, share +31bpsLa Prairie and Eucerin supported growth, while Nivea remained relatively weak.
- P&G Beauty April performanceGMV -17%, share +64bpsSK-II provided some support, while Olay was weak.
- Unilever B&PC April performanceGMV -27%, share +39bpsAHC, Pond's, and Dove were all under pressure.
- Henkel Beauty Care April performanceGMV +2%, share +119bpsSchwarzkopf drove share gains, but GMV still declined.
- China cosmetics coverage ratingsShiseido Underperform; Proya Market-Perform; Giant Biogene OutperformCorresponding target prices are 1931 JPY, 62 RMB, and 45 HKD, respectively.
Impact & implications
From an investment perspective, the April data reinforces the view that the recovery in China online beauty demand remains unstable. Investors should distinguish among weak overall market growth, underperformance by tracked companies, and share improvement at selected brands. Global leaders that can expand share in a low-growth environment may offer relative defensiveness; however, the declines in Asian beauty and some personal care brands suggest that competitive, channel, and demand pressures remain. For luxury allocation, the report favors high-quality companies with reasonable valuations or self-help pathways rather than a simple bet on a rapid macro demand rebound.
Risks
- April is a relatively small month in the full-year sales base, so single-month data may not represent the full-year trend.
- The recovery path for China online beauty demand remains uncertain, and the low-growth environment may persist.
- GMV, volumes, and pricing trends have been volatile since 2024, which may affect the stability of trend judgments.
- Some companies gained share but still posted negative GMV growth, so share improvement does not necessarily mean profitability improvement.
- Global luxury demand is affected by the macro environment, geopolitics, and short-term investor trading, which can amplify volatility.
- The report covers multiple companies, and some disclosures note Bernstein or related parties have investment banking, market-making, or other service relationships with certain companies.
What to watch
- Whether China online beauty GMV improves in May and during the 618 promotion season.
- Whether Douyin's incremental contribution versus Tmall/Taobao continues to support the overall market measure.
- Whether L'Oréal's YSL, SkinCeuticals, and Maybelline can sustain share gains.
- Whether Estée Lauder's La Mer and premium skincare momentum recovers.
- Progress on LVMH beauty portfolio adjustments, including the potential sale of Fresh, Make Up For Ever, and Fenty.
- Whether the declines at P&G Beauty, Unilever B&PC, Shiseido, Proya, and Giant Biogene are only short-term volatility.
- Recovery in global luxury demand, consumer macro confidence, and changes in the geopolitical environment.