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China Online Beauty July GMV Fell 13.2%, Signaling a Material Market Weakening

Institution
Bernstein
Date
2026-08-14
Authors
Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA, Luca Solca, Cristian Rios, Victoria Nice, CFA, Maria Meita, Henry Dennis, Simran Cheema, Eric Chen, CFA, Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA, Yolanda Zhang, Alix Turner
Company
China Online Beauty Market
Ticker
-
Industry
Beauty and Personal Care
Rating
Multiple names: Beiersdorf and Unilever rated Outperform; Henkel, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Procter & Gamble rated Market Perform
BearishHigh confidenceChina beauty e-commerce GMV declined 13.2% YoY in July, reflecting a weak market environment; however, several international premium beauty groups still delivered growth and gained share, highlighting significant brand and category divergence.
AuthorsCallum Elliott, CFA, ACA, Luca Solca, Cristian Rios, Victoria Nice, CFA, Maria Meita, Henry Dennis, Simran Cheema, Eric Chen, CFA, Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA, Yolanda Zhang, Alix Turner
Target priceMultiple names; see rating snapshot
Business segmentsBeauty、Personal Care、Online Retail
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesBernstein(Other)

AI summary card

China Online Beauty July GMV Fell 13.2%, Signaling a Material Market Weakening

Despite weak industry demand, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, LVMH, Henkel, and Beiersdorf achieved growth and gained share on the strength of core brands, while P&G Beauty and Unilever BPC remained under pressure.

Bernstein maintains Outperform ratings on Beiersdorf with a €95 target price and Unilever with target prices of €66.90/£58; it maintains Market Perform ratings on Henkel, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Procter & Gamble.
China Beauty E-commerceGMVMarket SharePremium BeautyBrand Divergence
  • China's beauty e-commerce market GMV declined 13.2% YoY in July, while tracked beauty companies' GMV fell 3.8% YoY; however, July accounted for only about 3.5% of full-year sales.
  • L'Oréal GMV grew 9% and gained 100 basis points of share; Estée Lauder grew 5% and gained 103 basis points; LVMH grew 7% and gained 121 basis points.
  • Henkel Beauty Care grew 18% and Beiersdorf grew 14%, both materially outperforming the weak market.
  • P&G Beauty GMV declined 27%, while Unilever BPC sales declined 18%; although both gained share, their core brands remained under pressure.

Report interpretation

Overview

After tracking brand sales data across Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin, Bernstein noted a significant downturn in China's beauty e-commerce market in July 2026, with GMV down 13.2% YoY. The decline for tracked companies was smaller than that of the market, but the overall demand environment remained weak. International premium and professional beauty brands performed relatively well, indicating that consumer demand and market share continue to concentrate in brands with strong brand equity and product innovation capabilities.

Core views

Market performance in July was very weak, but conditions did not deteriorate uniformly across the industry. L'Oréal, driven by Kérastase, Lancôme, SkinCeuticals, and Yves Saint Laurent; Estée Lauder, supported by Estée Lauder, The Ordinary, and Le Labo; and LVMH, supported by Guerlain and Dior, all delivered growth and share gains. Henkel and Beiersdorf also performed strongly. By comparison, P&G Beauty's Olay and SK-II, and Unilever BPC's AHC and Pond's, were the principal drags.

Analysis framework

The analysis focuses on sales, GMV, volume, price, and market-share changes across China's mainstream e-commerce platforms, comparing one-month, trailing three-month, trailing six-month, and year-to-date trends at the market, company, and brand levels.

Methodology notes

  • Channel Data TrackingGMV and Sales Growth Comparison

    Compares overall market performance with sales and GMV growth for covered companies and brands.

    Used to identify companies' relative growth performance versus the industry and changes in demand.

  • Competitive Landscape AnalysisMarket Share Changes

    Measures changes in brand and company share within China's online beauty market in basis points.

    Share gains may reflect relative competitiveness, but do not necessarily indicate growth in absolute sales.

  • Brand Portfolio AnalysisBrand Contribution Breakdown

    Identifies the specific brands driving or weighing on company performance.

    Used to assess whether growth is concentrated in a small number of brands or categories, and to evaluate growth quality.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • L'Oréal
    A major international participant in China's online beauty market
    Strengths
    July GMV grew 9%, with share up 100 basis points; premium brand portfolio momentum remains strong.
    Weaknesses
    Still faces an overall market decline and volatility in China demand.
    Comparison
    Performed better than the market and most tracked companies.
    Risks
    Weaker premium consumption demand, intensifying brand competition, and changes in channel promotions.
  • Estée Lauder
    A major international participant in China's online beauty market
    Strengths
    July GMV grew 5%, with share up 103 basis points; Estée Lauder, The Ordinary, and Le Labo drove growth.
    Weaknesses
    Dr. Jart+, Jo Malone London, and La Mer lost share; structural challenges remain at the global level.
    Comparison
    Outperformed the overall market, though growth was below that of some stronger peers.
    Risks
    Continued declines in U.S. department-store channels, reliance on a small number of brands for growth, and difficulty in further accelerating the global recovery.
  • LVMH
    A participant in China's online premium beauty market
    Strengths
    July growth of 7% and a 121-basis-point share gain; Guerlain and Dior remained strong.
    Weaknesses
    The group remains affected by weak middle-class consumer demand in its broader luxury-goods business.
    Comparison
    Significantly outperformed China's weak online beauty market.
    Risks
    A slowdown in premium consumption, sustainability of Dior's recovery, and execution risk in adjusting brand price and mix.
  • Beiersdorf
    A participant in China's online beauty market
    Strengths
    July sales grew 14%, with share up 61 basis points; Chantecaille, La Prairie, Coppertone, and Nivea performed well.
    Weaknesses
    Eucerin and Maestro sales declined.
    Comparison
    Ranked among the strongest performers during the month.
    Risks
    Volatility in demand for premium brands and uneven performance across brands.
  • Henkel
    A participant in China's online beauty market
    Strengths
    Beauty Care sales grew 18%, with share up 46 basis points; Shiseido Professional performed particularly well.
    Weaknesses
    Schwarzkopf's share declined slightly.
    Comparison
    Monthly growth led most international peers and the market.
    Risks
    Growth concentrated in a small number of brands, channel competition, and weak market demand.
  • Procter & Gamble
    A participant in China's online beauty market
    Strengths
    Despite a 27% decline in July GMV, it still gained 20 basis points of share; SK-II had previously stabilized and regained share in China.
    Weaknesses
    Both Olay and SK-II declined during the month, while Beauty year-to-date GMV fell 21%.
    Comparison
    Performed materially worse than international beauty peers that grew in the market.
    Risks
    An unstable recovery in core brands, category competition, and weak consumer demand.
  • Unilever
    A participant in China's online beauty and personal care market
    Strengths
    Vaseline, Dove, and Lux grew and gained share, while Rexona returned to growth.
    Weaknesses
    BPC sales declined 18%, with AHC and Pond's weighing materially on performance.
    Comparison
    Absolute sales performance was weak, but share still increased by 85 basis points.
    Risks
    Brand portfolio divergence, continued weakness in key drag brands, and promotional competition in the market.

Key data

  • July GMV Growth in China's Beauty E-commerce Market-13.2%YoY; July is a relatively smaller sales month during the year.
  • July GMV Growth for Tracked Beauty Companies-3.8%Outperformed the overall market, but growth remained negative.
  • July Sales as a Share of Full-Year SalesApproximately 3.5%The report notes that a single month has limited representativeness for full-year performance.
  • L'Oréal July GMV Growth and Share Change+9%, +100 basis pointsCeraVe, Lancôme, SkinCeuticals, Helena Rubinstein, and Kérastase performed notably well.
  • Estée Lauder July GMV Growth and Share Change+5%, +103 basis pointsYear-to-date GMV grew 24%, with share up 161 basis points.
  • LVMH July GMV Growth and Share Change+7%, +121 basis pointsGuerlain and Dior grew by approximately 20% to 25%.
  • Henkel Beauty Care July Sales Growth and Share Change+18%, +46 basis pointsShiseido Professional and Schwarzkopf drove growth.
  • Beiersdorf July Sales Growth and Share Change+14%, +61 basis pointsChantecaille, La Prairie, and Nivea made significant contributions.
  • P&G Beauty July GMV Growth-27%Olay declined 46%, while SK-II declined 13%.
  • Unilever BPC July Sales Growth-18%AHC declined 60%, while Pond's declined 29%.

Impact & implications

In the short term, weak demand for online beauty in China will continue to weigh on industry growth expectations; however, the data reinforce the importance of premiumization, product innovation, and strong brand portfolios. Investors should distinguish between the overall market downturn and companies' relative share performance: companies gaining share are not necessarily unaffected by market declines, while share gains amid falling sales do not necessarily indicate improving fundamentals.

Risks

  • China beauty e-commerce demand remains weak, causing further declines in industry GMV.
  • July has a small sales base, so one-month data may not fully represent full-year trends.
  • Changes in platform methodologies, promotional timing, and channel mix may affect YoY and market-share comparisons.
  • Corporate growth is highly dependent on individual brands, and reversals in brand momentum could quickly affect overall performance.
  • Changes in premium consumption, price and mix, and the competitive landscape may undermine the sustainability of market-share gains.

What to watch

  • Whether China beauty e-commerce GMV improves in August and subsequent months, and the growth differential between tracked companies and the market.
  • Whether L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and LVMH's premium brands can sustain sales growth and share expansion.
  • Whether P&G's Olay and SK-II, and Unilever's AHC and Pond's, show signs of improvement.
  • Changes in the breakdown between volume and price growth, to determine whether growth is driven by genuine demand or price factors.
  • The impact of major promotion periods, platform traffic, and promotional strategies on market size and brand shares.
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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