Online beauty GMV grew 5% YoY in July, with local leaders outperforming

Overview

Using Goldman Sachs' China cosmetics tracking framework, the report analyzes July 2026 online GMV, sales volume, average order value, brand concentration, price-band performance and platform structure across Tmall/Taobao, JD and Douyin, and evaluates industry and key brand trends alongside new products, cosmetics import/export data and Korean duty-free channel data. July is a seasonally soft month after the 618 shopping festival, and industry growth slowed, but leading local brands continued to deliver clear excess growth.

Core views

First, industry demand has not weakened across the board, but shows divergence by platform and brand: Douyin maintained double-digit growth, while Tmall/Taobao and JD were under pressure. Second, brand concentration continued to rise, with Douyin's top 20 and top 50 brands growing faster than the top 500 brands. Third, local premium and mass brands overall outperformed multinational brands in comparable tiers, led by MGP, Shanghai Jahwa and Forest Cabin. Fourth, divergence within multinational brands was significant, with Estee Lauder Group and L'Oreal relatively strong, while Japanese and Korean brands were generally under pressure. Fifth, given July's low sales weighting, one month's data should not be linearly extrapolated to the full year; stock selection remains focused on growth resilience, innovation initiatives and valuation.

Analysis framework

The report aggregates high-frequency data compiled by Moojing, Chanmama and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, cross-compares YoY GMV changes across Tmall/Taobao, JD and Douyin, and groups results by local versus multinational brands, brand concentration, and luxury, premium, masstige and mass price bands. At the brand level, it further breaks down group, core brand and platform contributions to identify sources of growth and relative performance.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingMulti-platform online GMV tracking

  Measure online demand using monthly GMV, sales volume and average selling price on Tmall/Taobao, JD and Douyin.

  This method is suitable for observing short-term trends and platform migration, but GMV is not equivalent to company-recognized revenue, and July accounts for only a low share of full-year sales.

• Competitive landscape analysisBrand concentration comparison

  Compare YoY growth rates of Douyin's top 20, top 50 and top 500 brands.

  Growth of leading brands exceeded that of the broader brand sample, showing traffic and sales continued to concentrate toward leading brands.

• Market segmentationCore SKU price-band classification

  Classify luxury, premium, masstige and mass brands based on retail prices of core SKUs in Tmall flagship stores.

  For skincare, the luxury tier is above Rmb 730, the premium tier is Rmb 490 to 730, the masstige tier is Rmb 150 to 490, and the mass tier is below Rmb 150; for color cosmetics, the corresponding thresholds are above Rmb 400, Rmb 260 to 400, Rmb 170 to 260 and below Rmb 170, with exceptions made for certain brands.

• Relative performance analysisComparison of local and multinational brands

  Compare online GMV growth rates of local and multinational brands at similar price positioning.

  In July, local premium and mass brands were relatively more resilient, while multinational masstige brands and some Japanese and Korean groups declined more noticeably.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (MGP, 1318.HK)

  Sector top pick and Buy-rated name

  Strengths

  July GMV grew 55% YoY, with balanced growth across platforms, extending the strong momentum during 618 and maintaining its leading position in local premium cosmetics.

  Weaknesses

  The market is focused on potential slowing in 1H26 net profit growth to a range above 20%.

  Comparison

  Its July growth led the major local and multinational cosmetics groups covered in the report.

  Risks

  High base, fluctuations in consumer demand, overly high growth expectations and intensifying competition among premium brands.

• Giant Biogene

  Maintain Buy view

  Strengths

  July GMV grew 10% YoY, with Comfy and Collgene growing 8% and 23%, respectively, and the medical aesthetics business having started offline operations in early August.

  Weaknesses

  July performance was below management's outlook for 2H26.

  Comparison

  Growth was below MGP, Shanghai Jahwa and Forest Cabin, but still better than some peers with flat or negative growth.

  Risks

  Execution of the medical aesthetics business, investment in new businesses, weaker-than-expected product sales and off-season data volatility.

• Forest Cabin

  Reiterate Buy

  Strengths

  July GMV grew 37% YoY, Douyin grew 46%, with strong growth performance and a more attractive valuation.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is relatively sensitive to the performance of online channels, especially Douyin.

  Comparison

  Among local brands, it ranked behind only MGP and Shanghai Jahwa, clearly outperforming the industry.

  Risks

  Rising platform traffic costs, a pullback in online growth and intensifying competition.

• Shanghai Jahwa

  Leading local brand

  Strengths

  July GMV grew 43% YoY, with outstanding performance from Douyin, Dr. Yu and Herborist.

  Weaknesses

  Performance may vary significantly across brands and platforms.

  Comparison

  July growth ranked among the top major local groups, below only MGP.

  Risks

  Sustainability of high growth, uneven brand recovery and reliance on promotions.

• Bloomage Biotechnology Corp. (688363.SS)

  Neutral performance

  Strengths

  Medrepair grew 138% YoY, and Biohyalux grew 2%.

  Weaknesses

  Group-level overall GMV was broadly flat, while QuadHA and Biomeso declined 30% and 29%, respectively.

  Comparison

  Clearly lagged MGP, Shanghai Jahwa, Forest Cabin, Giant Biogene and Proya Group.

  Risks

  Divergence among core brands, continued declines in some brands and insufficient ramp-up of new products.

• Multinational cosmetics brand portfolio

  Divergent performance and overall relatively weaker than local brands

  Strengths

  Estee Lauder Group and L'Oreal grew 15% and 9%, respectively, with strong performance from core brands La Roche-Posay, Skinceuticals, Clinique and Estee Lauder.

  Weaknesses

  Shiseido, Amore, Kose and LG H&H all recorded YoY declines, with some core brands under pressure.

  Comparison

  Overall lagged local premium and mass brands, but European and US leaders outperformed most Japanese and Korean groups.

  Risks

  Weak demand in the China market, competition from local brands, aging core brands and declines in traditional e-commerce channels.

Key data

• July 2026 online beauty GMVUp 5% YoYA clear slowdown from 11% YoY growth in 2Q26.
• Douyin GMVUp 18% YoYContinued to contribute incremental industry growth, but Douyin's share among the tracked company sample declined by 1 percentage point versus 2Q26.
• Tmall/Taobao GMVDown 9% YoYSales volume fell 11.3% in the same period, while average selling price rose 2.6%.
• JD GMVDown 19% YoYConsistent with overall pressure on traditional e-commerce platforms.
• MGPUp 55% YoYDouyin grew 67%, while Tmall/Taobao and JD grew 40% and 26%, respectively.
• Shanghai JahwaUp 43% YoYDouyin grew 80%, while Dr. Yu and Herborist grew 44% and 85%, respectively.
• Forest CabinUp 37% YoYMainly driven by 46% YoY growth on Douyin.
• Giant Biogene and Proya GroupUp 10% and 9% YoY, respectivelyGiant Biogene was supported by growth in Comfy and Collgene; Proya Group saw Flowerknows and Off & Relax offset declines in its core brand.
• Multinational brand performanceEstee Lauder Group grew 15%, L'Oreal grew 9%Shiseido, Amore, Kose and LG H&H declined 4%, 13%, 23% and 33%, respectively.
• July seasonal weightingAround 5% of Tmall/Taobao full-year GMVBased on 2025 tracking data, one-month performance has limited representativeness for full-year judgment.

Impact & implications

The online beauty market is shifting from broad-based growth to structural growth, with platform traffic, brand concentration and local brand upgrading becoming the main drivers. For investors, local leaders with GMV growth significantly above the industry, multi-platform operating capabilities and new product catalysts are more likely to gain earnings expectation and valuation support; multinational companies reliant on traditional platforms, with weak core brands or continued contraction in China, face greater earnings pressure. However, July is a seasonally soft month, and short-term YoY data need to be validated against subsequent new product performance, margins and management guidance.

Risks

• July is a seasonally soft month after 618, and one-month GMV volatility may amplify bias in trend assessment.
• Third-party platform GMV data may differ from company-recognized revenue, returns and offline sales metrics.
• Consumer demand or the macro environment may be weaker than expected.
• Changes in platform traffic rules, promotional intensity and channel share may affect comparisons across brands.
• Progress in new businesses such as new products and medical aesthetics may fall short of expectations.
• Intensifying competition between local and multinational brands may push up marketing investment and compress margins.

What to watch

• Whether industry GMV can re-accelerate in August 2026 and subsequent months after 618.
• Whether MGP can sustain high growth across multiple platforms and deliver on earnings expectations.
• Initial sales and execution progress of Giant Biogene's offline medical aesthetics business.
• Forest Cabin's platform expansion beyond Douyin and room for valuation re-rating.
• Whether the relative strength of Estee Lauder Group and L'Oreal can continue.
• Whether China businesses of Shiseido, Amore, Kose and LG H&H show improvement.
• Changes in GMV share between Douyin and Tmall/Taobao.
• Rising brand concentration and the resilience of mass brands relative to luxury brands.