Japan CCL and semiconductor substrate materials demand: August CCL exports point to resilient ABF demand but a potential slowdown in BT substrates

Overview

Goldman Sachs reviews August 2026 Japanese CCL trade data for signals on semiconductor-substrate demand. The report finds robust demand for ABF materials used in AI-related computing, but interprets the monthly trade deterioration as a potential warning for BT substrates and Mitsubishi Gas Chemical's second-half volumes.

Core views

Japan's August 2026 CCL export data were mixed. Export volume fell 2% year on year and 15% month on month, while export value rose 30% year on year but declined 24% sequentially. Goldman Sachs notes that July export value had surged 20% month on month to a record high, so some August pullback was likely normal. Even so, the magnitude of the decline left a softer-than-expected impression. With export volume broadly flat year on year but export value up 30%, the report infers that average selling prices continued to benefit from favourable product mix and earlier price increases. The much steeper fall in export value than in volume from July to August, however, suggests that the sequential mix shifted away from higher-value-added products. The institution attributes the weaker area principally to BT substrates. It estimates that CCL demand for BT substrates was relatively soft and says smartphone-related demand may be peaking after a period of strength. Rising memory prices have lifted device costs and may be beginning to weigh on end-market demand. Given Mitsubishi Gas Chemical's high share in BT materials for semiconductor package substrates, Goldman Sachs says investors should watch whether the August data signal a broader BT-demand slowdown and a weaker second-half volume-growth path for the company. By contrast, demand for ABF substrates appears robust, particularly for GPUs, ASICs and CPUs. The report says Resonac's exposure is more concentrated in ABF substrate materials, although trade statistics offer only a limited read on its underlying demand because substantial shipments—such as Shimodate plant shipments to a major Japanese package-substrate maker and Taiwan shipments to leading Taiwanese substrate makers—are outside the export data. Goldman Sachs' channel checks nevertheless indicate very strong demand for AI-server GPUs and ASICs as well as CPUs, supporting its view that Resonac continues to benefit from ABF-material demand.

Analysis framework

The report uses Japan Ministry of Finance CCL trade statistics to compare export volumes and values year on year and month on month, then interprets the gap between value and volume as evidence on pricing and product mix. It separates demand by substrate application—BT versus ABF—and supplements the trade-data read with channel checks, while noting that some Resonac shipments are not captured by exports.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  End-market and application-based demand analysis for BT and ABF substrate materials.

  Goldman Sachs links CCL export trends to demand in smartphones and AI-related computing, distinguishing softer BT-substrate demand from robust ABF-substrate demand.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Comparison of export volume and export value to infer average selling price and product-mix effects.

  The report interprets relatively flat year-on-year volume alongside a 30% rise in value as support from mix and price hikes, while the sharper monthly fall in value signals weaker high-value mix.

• Other

  EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC correlation valuation methodology.

  For the two covered companies, target prices are based on a materials-sector cash-return multiple derived from the relationship between EV/GCI and forecast CROCI/WACC, with company-specific discounts or premiums to the sector average.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182.T)

  High market-share exposure to BT materials for semiconductor package substrates makes its second-half volume growth sensitive to a broader BT-demand slowdown.

  Strengths

  High market share in BT materials for semiconductor package substrates.

  Weaknesses

  Potentially softer BT substrate demand, including smartphone-related demand.

  Comparison

  More exposed to BT materials than Resonac, which is more exposed to ABF substrate materials.

  Risks

  Semiconductor-material demand outlook, methanol pricing environment and foreign-exchange swings.

• Resonac Holdings (4004.T)

  More exposed to ABF substrate materials and positioned to benefit from strong demand for AI-server GPUs, ASICs and CPUs.

  Strengths

  Strong underlying demand for ABF substrate materials according to channel checks.

  Weaknesses

  Export statistics provide only a limited read because significant shipments are not captured.

  Comparison

  More exposed to ABF materials than Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, which has high BT-material exposure.

  Risks

  A slowdown in semiconductor demand, yen appreciation and a decline in graphite-electrode earnings.

Key data

• August 2026 CCL export volume-2% YoY; -15% MoMWeight-basis exports declined.
• August 2026 CCL export value+30% YoY; -24% MoMValue rose year on year but fell sharply after July's record-high level.
• July 2026 CCL export value+20% MoMThe prior month's increase took export value to a record high.
• Mitsubishi Gas Chemical target price¥4,70012-month target price; Neutral rating.
• Resonac target price¥25,06012-month target price; Buy rating.

Impact & implications

The report differentiates semiconductor-material exposures: a potential BT-substrate slowdown could pressure Mitsubishi Gas Chemical's second-half volume outlook, while resilient AI-server-related ABF demand remains supportive for Resonac. The trade data are an incomplete indicator for Resonac because important shipments do not enter the export figures.

Risks

• For Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, risks include changes in semiconductor-material demand, methanol prices and foreign-exchange movements.
• For Resonac, risks include weaker semiconductor demand, yen appreciation and lower graphite-electrode earnings.

What to watch

• Whether August weakness develops into a broader slowdown in BT substrate demand.
• Mitsubishi Gas Chemical's second-half volume-growth trajectory.
• Sustained demand for ABF materials used in AI-server GPUs, ASICs and CPUs.
• Smartphone-related demand as higher memory prices raise device costs.