May MLCC exports declined in line with seasonality, supported by Taiwan on the IT side, while the automotive side weakened month over month

Overview

This report tracks Japan customs MLCC export data for May 2026 and uses the export destination mix to infer demand for IT and automotive applications. Total export volume and export value in May pulled back after a strong April and were affected by Japan's Golden Week, but overall remained consistent with historical seasonal patterns. In terms of trend, export value in yen terms continued to grow, the US dollar trend remained mildly upward, and the 3-month moving average year-over-year growth stayed in double digits.

Core views

The core view is that IT applications remain solid, especially supported by exports to Taiwan; automotive applications saw a notable month-over-month decline in Europe and the United States, weaker than seasonality, warranting caution over a weakening trend line. At the stock level, the report maintains a constructive view on MLCC stocks, with Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden as top picks, and a stronger preference for Murata Manufacturing because its advanced production technology, quality capabilities, and product roadmap position it to benefit more from expanding AI-related MLCC demand.

Analysis framework

The report uses Japan customs trade statistics for May 2026, breaking down total volume, value, and ASP by export destination, and treats Mainland China, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, China, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India as markets with high IT application exposure, while Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States are treated as markets with high automotive application exposure. The analysis also compares year-over-year, month-over-month, and past 10-year seasonal month-over-month patterns, while observing yen-based, US dollar-based, and 3-month moving average trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry TrackingJapan customs MLCC trade statistics

  Tracking MLCC demand by export destination

  By examining Japan's MLCC export volume, export value, and ASP to different countries and regions, the report indirectly observes changes in end-application demand.

• Demand BreakdownDestination-to-application mapping

  Proxy indicators for IT and automotive applications

  The report treats major Asian destinations as markets with high IT application exposure, and Europe and the United States as markets with high automotive application exposure, using regional changes to infer relative strength across applications.

• Cycle and Seasonality10-year seasonal month-over-month comparison

  Assessing whether a one-month pullback exceeds normal seasonality

  The month-over-month decline in total exports in May was broadly in line with historical seasonality, but the decline in automotive-related exports was significantly larger than the average May month-over-month pullback over the past 10 years.

• Volume-Price AnalysisExport volume, export value, and ASP

  Distinguishing trends in demand volume, value, and pricing

  The report examines volume, value, and average selling price simultaneously, noting that May ASP declined slightly month over month, but the mild upward trend remains intact.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Murata Manufacturing (6981.T)

  Top MLCC pick, rated OW by J.P. Morgan

  Strengths

  The report believes its advanced production technology, quality capabilities, and leading product roadmap make it the best positioned to benefit from expanding AI-related MLCC demand.

  Weaknesses

  The share price has already risen substantially since April and may enter a range-bound phase in the short term; the probability of price hikes in Jul-Sep is low.

  Comparison

  Compared with Taiyo Yuden, the report has a stronger preference for Murata Manufacturing.

  Risks

  AI server demand materializes more slowly than expected, MLCC supply-demand tightening is not obvious, price increases are delayed, and automotive application demand weakens.

• Taiyo Yuden (6976.T)

  Top MLCC pick, rated OW by J.P. Morgan

  Strengths

  As an MLCC-related stock, it is expected to benefit from IT application demand and expanding demand for high-end MLCCs used in AI servers.

  Weaknesses

  The report lists it as a top pick but with a lower preference than Murata Manufacturing; it also faces the issue that short-term share prices already reflect a substantial portion of growth expectations.

  Comparison

  Compared with Murata Manufacturing, the report does not describe equally strong advantages in production technology, quality capabilities, and product roadmap.

  Risks

  If the timing of MLCC price hikes is delayed, demand growth is lower than expected, or the automotive application trend declines, earnings and valuation may come under pressure.

• MLCC-related stocks

  A group of assets in the electronic components sector affected by Japan MLCC exports and AI server demand

  Strengths

  The IT application trend is still upward, exports to Taiwan are strong, and high-end MLCCs for AI servers may tighten supply-demand conditions.

  Weaknesses

  Exports related to automotive applications have weakened significantly in Europe and the United States, and sector stocks have already priced in a substantial amount of earnings growth expectations in advance.

  Comparison

  IT applications are stronger than automotive applications; Taiwan is stronger than South Korea and Mainland China, with the latter two showing basically flat export value in US dollar terms.

  Risks

  Regional monthly volatility, misjudging seasonality, insufficient verification of AI demand, unsuccessful price negotiations, and continued weakness on the automotive side.

Key data

• Japan total MLCC export volume83.837 billion units, +7.0% year over year, -9.9% month over monthThe month-over-month decline in May was basically in line with the seasonal pullback over the past 10 years.
• Japan total MLCC export valueUS$411 million, +8.5% year over year, -11.8% month over monthIn yen terms, it was ¥65.035 billion, +18.6% year over year and -12.3% month over month.
• Total ASP0.49 US cents, +1.4% year over year, -2.1% month over monthPrices declined slightly month over month, but the report believes the mild upward trend remains in place.
• Export volume related to IT applications68.595 billion units, +8.7% year over year, -6.6% month over monthThe decline was better than total exports and also better than the historical seasonal pullback.
• Export value related to IT applicationsUS$300.2 million, +13.0% year over year, -7.3% month over monthThe report believes the IT application trend line continues to move upward in both yen and US dollar terms.
• Export value to Taiwan, ChinaUS$69.4 million, +19.2% year over year, +17.3% month over monthTaiwan was the main driver of May IT application growth in US dollar terms.
• Export volume related to automotive applications8.603 billion units, -7.2% year over year, -22.4% month over monthThe month-over-month decline was significantly larger than the average May seasonal decline over the past 10 years.
• Export value related to automotive applicationsUS$63.1 million, -16.3% year over year, -25.1% month over monthBoth Europe and the United States recorded large month-over-month declines, and April's strength did not continue.
• Export value to Germany and the NetherlandsUS$30.8 million, -23.2% year over year, -24.5% month over monthExports related to automotive applications in Europe declined significantly.
• Export value to the United StatesUS$32.4 million, -8.6% year over year, -25.7% month over monthExports related to automotive applications in the United States also declined sharply month over month.
• Murata Manufacturing rating and target priceOW, target price ¥15,200, implied return of 28.5% in the valuation tableThe report describes it as the more preferred top MLCC pick.
• Taiyo Yuden rating and target priceOW, target price ¥22,500, implied return of 19.6% in the valuation tableAlso a top MLCC pick maintained by J.P. Morgan.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, the May data reinforces the view that MLCC demand has not reversed simply because of a one-month month-over-month pullback, but the structural divergence is clear: IT and AI server-related demand are more supportive, while automotive-related exports warrant caution. The report believes MLCC stocks have already risen rapidly since April and may enter a range-bound phase in the short term; the probability of price hikes in Jul-Sep is low, with the next key observation point in Oct-Dec, when tight supply of high-end, cutting-edge AI server MLCCs and progress in 2027 price negotiations may become clearer.

Risks

• Automotive application demand reflected in exports to Europe and the United States is far below seasonality, and the trend line may weaken.
• MLCC stocks have already risen sharply since April and may enter a range-bound phase in the short term.
• The probability of MLCC price hikes in Jul-Sep is low; if price negotiations or AI server demand progress more slowly than expected, earnings realization may be delayed.
• Monthly data in regions such as India and the Philippines are highly volatile, and one-month readings may mislead trend judgments.
• J.P. Morgan has disclosure items involving market making/liquidity, client relationships, and potential investment banking compensation with Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden, or related entities.

What to watch

• The 3-month moving average trend in Japan customs MLCC export volume, export value, and ASP after Jun 2026.
• Whether export value to Taiwan in US dollar terms can continue to grow, to validate AI server and IT application demand.
• Whether automotive application exports in Europe and the United States are just a one-month pullback or the start of a gradual decline.
• Tight supply of high-end, cutting-edge MLCCs and progress in 2027 price negotiations in Oct-Dec 2026.
• Range-bound trading, earnings revisions, and valuation digestion for Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden after their sharp gains.