Big Three Telecom Operators Launch AI Token Plans; April 5G Base Station Deployment Up 16% YoY
AI summary card
Big Three Telecom Operators Launch AI Token Plans; April 5G Base Station Deployment Up 16% YoY
Goldman Sachs report notes Chinese telecom operators have launched AI token subscription plans, which may boost ARPU; April 5G base station deployment reached 51k units, cumulative total hits 5 million stations, with strong overseas demand maintained.
- Big Three operators officially launched AI token plans targeting both ToC and ToB customers
- April 5G base station deployment reached 51k units, up 16% YoY, cumulative total hits 5 million stations
- Fiber optic cable export value up 287% YoY, reflecting strong overseas demand
- 5G user growth accelerated, adding 8 million new users in April
- China Mobile/Unicom 5G penetration rates reach 66%/71%
- CCL export prices up 67% YoY, PCB net export value up 40% YoY
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on two key developments in China's telecom industry: first, the Big Three operators (China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom) officially launched AI token subscription plans with fees for individual and enterprise customers; second, tracking April 2026 5G base station deployment and industry chain export data. Goldman Sachs views the AI token plans positively, believing they will drive customer ARPU spending growth, while noting telecom operators' competitive advantages in integrated solutions and security.
Core views
Regarding AI token plans, all three operators introduced differentiated pricing strategies. China Mobile adopted pay-as-you-go (¥1/400k tokens) or package plans (¥5.99-24.99/month); China Unicom offers personal versions starting at ¥15/month and enterprise versions at ¥198/month; China Telecom charges ToC users ¥9.9-49.9/month and ToB users ¥39.9-299.9/month. The report believes these plans will help increase customer ARPU spending, with telecom operators having advantages in integrated solutions and security, expecting more AI applications and feature expansions to support AI token user adoption. For 5G infrastructure, April 2026 saw 51k new 5G base stations deployed, up 16% YoY (vs. 44k units in April 2025), reaching a cumulative total of 5 million stations by April. The first four months of 2026 added 171k units, completing 32% of the full-year estimated additions (consistent with 2025's pace). The report forecasts 540k new macro base stations for full-year 2026 (vs. 588k in 2025). Note: Since March 2023, MIIT adjusted indoor 5G base station statistical methodology (from BBU to RRU), making YoY data not directly comparable. Industry chain export data showed divergence. April fiber optic cable production fell 16% YoY, but export volume rose 9% and export value surged 287%, indicating improved overseas demand; fiber preform imports rose 97% YoY to 33 tons, with average price up 57% MoM. BTS export volume fell 9% but export value rose 3%, with unit price down 4% MoM to $6,707. CCL export prices rose 67% YoY, PCB export value up 29% YoY and net export value up 40% YoY, continuing growth momentum.
Analysis framework
The report employs multi-dimensional data tracking: first, at operator level, tracking AI token pricing strategies, 5G user numbers and penetration rate changes; second, at infrastructure level, tracking 5G base station deployment progress and full-year completion estimates; third, at industry chain level, tracking production, export volume and price changes for upstream/downstream products like fiber optic cables, BTS, CCL, PCB. By comparing YoY/MoM data and completion progress, it assesses industry vitality and overseas demand strength.
Methodology notes
Judging supply-demand dynamics through production vs. export volume/price comparisons
The report compares domestic production (e.g., fiber optic cable production down 16% YoY) with export data (export volume up 9%, export value up 287%) to determine stronger overseas than domestic demand, helping readers understand how to identify demand sources from volume-price breakdowns.
5G user penetration tracking
The report tracks China Mobile/Unicom's 5G penetration rates (66%/71%), a key indicator for assessing 5G business maturity and future ARPU uplift potential, with higher penetration meaning larger 5G user bases and stronger monetization potential.
ARPU driver analysis
The report links AI token subscription plans to ARPU (average revenue per user) growth, a core telecom financial metric, where new services (like AI tokens) can directly drive ARPU growth through subscription fees or usage-based charges.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- China MobileBeneficiary: AI token plans to drive ARPU growth, 66% 5G penetration
- Strengths
- Largest 5G user base (668 million), flexible AI token pricing (¥1/400k tokens or packages at ¥5.99-24.99/month)
- Comparison
- 66% 5G penetration lags Unicom's 71%
- China UnicomBeneficiary: AI token plans to drive ARPU growth, 71% 5G penetration
- Strengths
- Highest 5G penetration (71%), enterprise AI token pricing starts at ¥198/month
- Comparison
- 71% 5G penetration exceeds Mobile's 66%
- China TelecomBeneficiary: AI token plans to drive ARPU growth, 71% 5G penetration
- Strengths
- Broad ToC/ToB pricing coverage (ToC ¥9.9-49.9/month, ToB ¥39.9-299.9/month)
Key data
- April 5G base station deployment51k unitsUp 16% YoY, vs. 44k units in April 2025
- Cumulative 5G base station deployment5 million stationsAs of April 2026
- Jan-Apr 2026 new base stations171k unitsCompleting 32% of full-year estimate
- April telecom service revenue¥1550 billionUp 2% YoY
- April 5G user growth+8 millionvs. +19 million in April 2025
- Fiber optic cable export valueUp 287% YoYApril 2026, export volume up 9% YoY
- CCL export pricesUp 67% YoYApril 2026, up 9% MoM
- PCB net export valueUp 40% YoYApril 2026, vs. +55% in March
- China Mobile 5G penetration66%As of 1Q26, 668 million cumulative 5G users
- China Unicom 5G penetration71%As of 1Q26, 314 million cumulative 5G users
Impact & implications
The report believes AI token plans will create new revenue growth points for Chinese telecom operators, boosting customer ARPU spending through subscription or usage-based fees. Operators' advantages in integrated solutions and security should drive AI token user adoption. 5G base station deployment meets expectations, maintaining full-year forecast of 540k new macro base stations. Divergent industry chain export data shows stronger overseas than domestic demand, with fiber optic cables, CCL, and PCB exports maintaining growth, though base station production down 19% YoY warrants attention.
What to watch
- AI token user adoption progress and ARPU uplift effects
- Full-year 5G base station deployment completion (estimated 540k new additions)
- Fiber optic cable, CCL, PCB export volume and price changes
- 5G user growth and penetration rate changes