Japan silicon wafer trade data and global silicon wafer market: Record Japanese silicon-wafer exports reinforce Goldman Sachs' constructive view on wafer demand and supply conditions

Overview

This Japan Chemicals data update interprets August 2026 Japanese silicon-wafer trade statistics as evidence of sustained demand for advanced semiconductors. Goldman Sachs argues that strong shipments, improving prices, rising utilization and constrained capacity support its continued constructive stance on wafer producers SUMCO and Shin-Etsu Chemical.

Core views

Japan's Ministry of Finance data showed silicon-wafer export value up 23% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month in August 2026, reaching a new all-time high. Export volume on a weight basis rose 13% year-on-year and was flat sequentially. Goldman Sachs notes that shipment volumes have delivered double-digit annual growth since June, which it interprets as evidence that major wafer manufacturers are operating at high utilization levels. The export-value increase was not solely volume-driven: the firm sees average selling prices improving through favorable foreign-exchange movements, selective spot-price increases and a richer product mix. The report attributes steady growth in 300mm wafer demand to memory and logic/foundry applications as well as expanding AI-server demand across a broad set of semiconductors, including power devices. Destination data support that assessment: volumes shipped to Taiwan rose 20% year-on-year, highlighting strength in leading-edge logic and AI-related demand; exports to China also grew 20%; and shipments to South Korea increased 9%, consistent with resilient memory demand including high-bandwidth memory. Taken together, robust shipments across major Asian markets point, in Goldman Sachs' view, to healthy expansion in advanced-semiconductor demand. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts global wafer-manufacturer utilization excluding China to rise to approximately 95% in 2026 and approach full utilization in 2027. Because industry supply capacity is expected to expand only modestly in both the near and medium term, the firm believes supply-demand conditions could tighten further in 2028. On this basis, it reiterates Buy ratings on SUMCO and Shin-Etsu Chemical. For SUMCO, Goldman Sachs maintains a ¥5,500 12-month target price based on the average FY12/27-FY12/28 relationship between the materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC estimates, using a 0.7x cash-return multiple. For Shin-Etsu Chemical, it maintains a ¥9,510 12-month target price based on the FY3/28-FY3/29 average relationship between materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC estimates, also using a 0.7x cash-return multiple and a 20% premium to the sector average.

Analysis framework

The report begins with Ministry of Finance trade data, separating export value, shipment volume and destination trends. It then links shipment strength to wafer-manufacturer utilization and end-demand from memory, logic/foundry, AI servers and power devices, before combining utilization forecasts with limited expected capacity additions to form a supply-demand outlook. Company target prices use the stated relationship between materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC estimates.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Wafer supply-demand analysis using trade volumes, utilization rates, end-market demand and capacity additions.

  The report treats sustained shipment growth as a demand signal, forecasts rising utilization, and compares this with limited supply expansion to assess the potential for tighter wafer-market conditions.

• Valuation methods

  Materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC correlation using a cash-return multiple.

  Goldman Sachs derives the two companies' target prices from stated fiscal-year-average relationships between EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC estimates, applying a 0.7x cash-return multiple and, for Shin-Etsu Chemical, a 20% sector premium.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SUMCO

  Explicitly Buy-rated wafer producer positioned to benefit from stronger wafer demand and potentially tighter supply-demand conditions.

  Strengths

  High industry utilization and growing 300mm-wafer demand are supportive in the report's thesis.

  Comparison

  Target price methodology uses the materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC relationship.

  Risks

  A slowdown in semiconductor demand, yen appreciation, and greater-than-expected increases in depreciation and other fixed costs.

• Shin-Etsu Chemical

  Explicitly Buy-rated company positioned to benefit from stronger wafer demand and potentially tighter supply-demand conditions.

  Strengths

  High industry utilization and growing 300mm-wafer demand are supportive in the report's thesis.

  Comparison

  Target price methodology uses the materials-sector EV/GCI and CROCI/WACC relationship, with a 20% premium to the sector average.

  Risks

  Deterioration in semiconductor supply-demand conditions and negative earnings effects from swings in PVC, caustic-soda and foreign-exchange prices.

Key data

• Japan silicon-wafer export value+23% YoY; +12% MoM in August 2026Reached a new all-time high.
• Japan silicon-wafer export volume+13% YoY; flat MoM in August 2026Double-digit year-on-year growth has continued since June.
• Taiwan shipment volume+20% YoYLinked by the report to leading-edge logic and AI-related demand.
• China shipment volume+20% YoYExports remained solid.
• South Korea shipment volume+9% YoYPoints to resilient memory-related demand, including HBM.
• Ex-China global wafer-manufacturer utilizationApproximately 95% in 2026; approaching full utilization in 2027Goldman Sachs forecast.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs considers the trade data consistent with strengthening advanced-semiconductor demand and improving wafer pricing. With utilization expected to rise and capacity growth limited, the firm believes the backdrop for silicon-wafer suppliers could become tighter by 2028 and supports its continued Buy ratings on SUMCO and Shin-Etsu Chemical.

Risks

• For SUMCO, Goldman Sachs identifies weaker semiconductor demand, yen appreciation, and higher-than-expected depreciation and other fixed costs as key risks.
• For Shin-Etsu Chemical, Goldman Sachs identifies deterioration in semiconductor supply-demand conditions and adverse PVC, caustic-soda and foreign-exchange movements as key risks.

What to watch

• Silicon-wafer export volumes and values, particularly whether double-digit year-on-year shipment growth persists.
• Shipment trends to Taiwan, China and South Korea as indicators of logic, AI-related and memory demand.
• The path of ex-China wafer-manufacturer utilization toward approximately 95% in 2026 and near-full utilization in 2027.
• Industry capacity additions and whether they remain limited enough to tighten supply-demand conditions in 2028.