China’s March solar export volume surged 90% YoY, with both the policy window and geopolitical demand lifting shipments

Overview

This report is BofA Securities’ monthly Solar Flow trade data tracking, focusing on import and export changes in Chinese solar products and markets such as Southeast Asia, the US, Japan, and India. The report notes that China’s total exports of solar wafers, cells, and modules reached 66GW in March 2026, up 90% YoY and clearly accelerating from February. Growth was broad-based across multiple regions, mainly driven by Europe and Asia, possibly related to front-loaded shipments ahead of China’s cancellation of solar export tax rebates from April; meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East may have strengthened energy security demand in some markets.

Core views

The report’s core view is that China’s solar exports saw an unusually strong rebound in March, with substantial growth in modules, cells, and wafers, indicating that global demand and policy timing jointly drove a short-term shipment peak. On the module side, exports to Europe reached 14.5GW, up 72% YoY; exports to APAC reached 14.7GW, up 65% YoY; and the Americas also turned from a YoY decline in February to +113% YoY in March. On the cell side, Indonesia, India, and new destinations such as Kenya and Ethiopia contributed incremental demand. On the wafer side, the shares of India and Laos rose noticeably. On the policy side, the launch of the IEEPA tariff refund process may improve the trade environment for some Chinese PV companies exporting from Southeast Asia to the US.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly customs and industry data tracking approach, breaking down export volume, export value, YoY growth, regional distribution, destination countries, product segments, and supply chain nodes. The analytical focus is not on earnings forecasts for a single company, but on identifying the impact of policy changes, geopolitics, regional demand, and supply chain migration on the solar value chain through trade data.

Methodology notes

• Trade data trackingSolar Flow monthly tracking

  Track monthly import and export volumes and values of solar products in China and related markets

  The report is based on China Customs, InfoLink, and related public trade data, and observes export volume, export value, and YoY changes across segments including modules, cells, wafers, polysilicon, inverters, and transformers.

• Regional breakdownDestination country and regional contribution analysis

  Assess sources of demand through regional and country shares

  The report breaks module exports down into regions such as Europe, APAC, Americas, Middle East, and Africa, and further examines growth contributions from countries including the Netherlands, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

• Policy event analysisAssessment of export tax rebates, IEEPA, and trade tariff impacts

  Link changes in trade data to policy windows and tariff events

  The report believes the March export acceleration may be related to front-loaded shipments ahead of China’s cancellation of solar export tax rebates in April, and it highlights the impact of CBP’s launch of the IEEPA tariff refund process on Chinese PV manufacturers exporting from Southeast Asia to the US.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Chinese PV module manufacturers

  Directly benefit from March growth in export volume and export value

  Strengths

  Module exports reached 41GW, up 74% YoY, with strong demand from Europe and APAC, while growth in the Americas rebounded from negative growth in February to +113% YoY in March.

  Weaknesses

  The strong March growth may include policy-driven front-loaded shipments, creating downside risk in subsequent months.

  Comparison

  Compared with +12% YoY module export growth in February, March clearly accelerated; cumulative 3M26 growth was +25% YoY.

  Risks

  The cancellation of export tax rebates, US trade policy, AD/CVD investigations, and regional demand volatility may constrain sustainability.

• Cell export chain

  Driven by demand from Indonesia, India, and emerging destinations

  Strengths

  March cell exports reached 15GW, up 112% YoY, with export value up 186% YoY; Indonesia accounted for 27% of export value.

  Weaknesses

  Destination concentration has increased, and volatility could be high if policy changes occur in major markets.

  Comparison

  Cell exports were up 23% YoY in February, and accelerated significantly in March; 3M26 was up 48% YoY.

  Risks

  Changes in Southeast Asia and US trade rules, rules-of-origin reviews, and tariff risks.

• Wafer export chain

  Supported by demand growth from India and Laos

  Strengths

  March wafer exports reached 10GW, up 141% YoY; exports to India rose 696% YoY, and Laos’ share of export value increased from 3% a year ago to 14%.

  Weaknesses

  Export value growth of 40% YoY lagged export volume growth of 141% YoY, indicating continued pressure on pricing or product mix.

  Comparison

  Compared with modules and cells, wafers saw stronger volume growth but weaker value growth.

  Risks

  Falling prices, changes in overseas capacity, and demand pullback after downstream restocking ends.

• Inverters and transformers

  Affected by improved export demand as supporting segments of PV systems

  Strengths

  Inverter export value rose 20% YoY, with notable growth in Japan and Australia; transformer export value rose 37% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  The report discloses less core data than for modules, cells, and wafers, making profit elasticity harder to assess.

  Comparison

  Growth was lower than for wafers and cells, but still indicates improving overseas installation-related demand.

  Risks

  Regional order volatility, price competition, and uncertainty in project delivery timing.

• Chinese PV companies exporting from Southeast Asia to the US

  May benefit positively from the IEEPA tariff refund process

  Strengths

  CBP has launched the IEEPA tariff refund process, which may help companies recover previously paid related tariffs and improve cash flow.

  Weaknesses

  Uncertainty remains around the refund pace, scope of eligible companies, and final implementation.

  Comparison

  Compared with relying solely on direct exports from China, this route is more affected by US trade policy and Southeast Asia supply chain compliance.

  Risks

  AD/CVD, FEOC, CBP review, rules of origin, and weaker US import demand.

Key data

• China total solar exports66GW, +90% YoYIncludes wafers, cells, and modules, based on March 2026 data; February export volume was +18% YoY, and cumulative 3M26 growth was +35% YoY.
• Module export volume41GW, +74% YoYModule export value in March 2026 was US$3.6bn, up 69% YoY.
• Europe module exports14.5GW, +72% YoYEurope was one of the main regions driving module export growth in March, with 3M26 up 34% YoY.
• APAC module exports14.7GW, +65% YoYAPAC was another major incremental region, with 3M26 up 7% YoY.
• Cell export volume15GW, +112% YoYCell export value in March 2026 was US$914mn, up 186% YoY; Indonesia accounted for 27% of export value.
• Wafer export volume10GW, +141% YoYWafer export value in March 2026 was US$247mn, up 40% YoY; exports to India increased to +696% YoY.
• Inverter export value+20% YoYGrowth was mainly driven by Japan at +308% YoY and Australia at +264% YoY.
• Transformer export value+37% YoYChina’s transformer export value continued to grow in March 2026.
• 3M26 module regional mixEurope 36%, Asia 31%The report charts show that Europe and Asia together accounted for the majority share of three-month module export value.
• US solar importsIn February 2026, module import volume was -18% YoY and cell import volume was -32% YoYThere is a timing gap between the US import side and China’s export side, and the share of the four Southeast Asian countries remains a key focus.

Impact & implications

For investment research, the March export surge indicates that the short-term shipment resilience of China’s PV supply chain is stronger than prior trends, especially in modules, cells, and wafers. However, the growth may include front-loaded demand ahead of the cancellation of export tax rebates, so data for April and beyond will determine whether this round of high growth is sustainable. If IEEPA tariff refunds proceed smoothly, they may improve cash flow and trade friction pressures for exports to the US via Southeast Asia; conversely, AD/CVD, FEOC, CBP enforcement, and geopolitical conflicts may still affect order timing, regional pricing, and supply chain allocation.

Risks

• The March export surge may include front-loaded shipments ahead of the cancellation of export tax rebates, and subsequent months may see a payback-driven decline.
• There is uncertainty around US trade policy, AD/CVD, FEOC, CBP enforcement, and IEEPA-related processes.
• Middle East conflict and energy security demand may boost short-term demand, but the geopolitical events themselves may also disrupt logistics, costs, and order timing.
• Export volume growth significantly outpaced export value growth in some categories, suggesting that pricing pressure or product mix changes still warrant attention.
• Demand in destination countries is changing rapidly; for example, some markets such as Pakistan still show YoY declines, and regional growth is not balanced.
• The Southeast Asia supply chain’s exports to the US are heavily affected by tariffs, rules of origin, and compliance reviews.

What to watch

• China’s solar export data for April and beyond, to verify sustainability after front-loaded shipments ahead of the tax rebate cancellation.
• Whether module exports to Europe, APAC, and the Americas can sustain March’s strong growth.
• Whether import growth in destinations such as Indonesia, India, and Laos for cells and wafers is sustainable.
• The actual execution pace, refund amounts, and scope of beneficiary companies for CBP’s IEEPA tariff refunds.
• Whether US module and cell import volumes recover from the YoY declines seen in February, and changes in the shares of the four Southeast Asian countries.
• The gap between export value growth and export volume growth for modules, cells, and wafers, to assess pricing and profitability pressure.
• The follow-through impact of Middle East energy security demand on solar installations and import orders.