Japan's April MLCC exports strengthened; Morgan Stanley raised its 2026-2028 global MLCC shipment value forecasts

Overview

This is a Morgan Stanley research update on Japan's electronic components sector and MLCC cycle, centered on Japan's April capacitor output, MoF trade statistics, and global MLCC market forecasts. The report points out that April METI production data and MoF export data diverged in direction: Japan's domestic MLCC production value in U.S. dollar terms declined year over year, but export value increased both year over year and month over month. Based on this, the research team raised its 2026-2028 global MLCC shipment value forecasts and emphasized that demand for AI/data center-related small-size, high-capacitance MLCCs may continue to expand.

Core views

The core views of the report include: first, AI servers, data centers, and next-generation GPUs will increase demand for small-size, high-capacitance, high-reliability MLCCs; second, Murata Manufacturing has differentiated advantages in miniaturization, effective capacitance retention, and high-frequency stability, and may obtain premiums on high-value-added products; third, unit prices of comparable products may still decline moderately, and industry opportunities are more likely to come from mix improvement and premiumization rather than across-the-board price increases; fourth, the divergence between METI production statistics and MoF trade statistics has not yet been clearly explained and requires validation from subsequent data.

Analysis framework

The report uses an industry data tracking and forecast revision approach, combining METI production statistics, MoF trade statistics, regional and customs-port export breakdowns, monthly sales of major Taiwanese manufacturers, and MLCC supply chain information to assess changes in MLCC demand, ASP, and product mix. The analysis focuses not on the valuation of a single company, but on judging the direction of industry conditions through production value, export value, shipment volume, ASP, and application demand.

Methodology notes

• Industry cycle trackingMETI production statistics

  Japan domestic output, production value, and ASP

  The report uses METI data to observe April production value, year-over-year and month-over-month changes, and ASP for Japan's MLCCs and aluminum electrolytic capacitors, in order to gauge conditions on the domestic production side.

• Trade data validationMoF trade statistics

  Export value, export volume, ASP, and regional breakdown

  The report uses Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics to track MLCC export value, quantity, ASP, as well as performance in Greater China and major ports, to cross-check changes in demand and product mix.

• Forecast revisionMorgan Stanley global MLCC shipment value forecast

  Annual market size and growth forecast

  Based on historical market size, AI/data center demand, GPU generation changes, and expansion of high-value-added products, the research team raised its 2026-2028 global MLCC shipment value forecasts.

• Rating frameworkMorgan Stanley Industry View

  In-Line industry view

  In-Line means analysts expect the sector coverage to perform broadly in line with the relevant market benchmark over the next 12-18 months; this report maintains that view on Japan's electronic components sector.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MLCC industry

  Core research subject of the report

  Strengths

  MoF trade statistics show April export value increased year over year and month over month, AI/data center demand is driving expansion in small-size, high-capacitance MLCCs, and the 2026-2028 global shipment value forecast has been raised.

  Weaknesses

  METI data show domestic production value in U.S. dollar terms declined year over year, unit prices of comparable products may still trend down moderately, and trade-statistics ASP cannot fully reflect same-product price changes.

  Comparison

  After declining in 2022-2023, the global MLCC market resumed growth in 2024-2025, and the report significantly raised its 2026-2028 forecasts.

  Risks

  Divergence between production statistics and export statistics, AI/data center demand falling short of expectations, and disruptions from exchange rates and product mix may affect the judgment on industry conditions.

• Murata Manufacturing

  Potential beneficiary in high-end MLCCs and a key company discussed in the report

  Strengths

  The report states that it is in a leading position in miniaturization, increasing capacitance, effective capacitance retention, and high-frequency stability, and may obtain premium opportunities in high-quality and high-reliability products.

  Weaknesses

  If demand rises rapidly, capacity expansion and supply allocation capability will become constraints; the report does not provide a target price or current share price in the summary.

  Comparison

  Compared with other MLCC companies, the report believes Murata's differentiated high-value-added products may bring a clearer margin advantage.

  Risks

  If it cannot meet demand from computing applications such as AI servers and data centers, it may lose share due to insufficient capacity or sacrificing supply to other applications.

• Taiyo Yuden, TDK, Kyocera, SEMCO, Yageo, Walsin

  MLCC peers and supply chain comparable companies

  Strengths

  These companies are in the MLCC supply chain or manufacturing segment and may benefit from recovering industry demand; both Yageo and Walsin posted year-over-year sales growth in May.

  Weaknesses

  The report describes less differentiated advantage for these companies than for Murata, and comparable-product pricing still faces moderate downward pressure.

  Comparison

  Murata is described as the leader in high-end miniaturized and high-capacitance products; Yageo's May sales rose month over month, while Walsin's declined slightly month over month.

  Risks

  Differences in product mix, regional demand, price competition, and capacity allocation may lead to diverging company performance.

• Aluminum electrolytic capacitors

  Adjacent capacitor category

  Strengths

  April production value in yen was ¥16.5bn, YoY +3.2%, and ASP was YoY +0.3%.

  Weaknesses

  Production value in U.S. dollar terms was $103.77mn, YoY -6.4%, MoM -3.3%, with weaker month-over-month performance than MLCC export data.

  Comparison

  The report's focus is clearly tilted toward MLCCs and AI/data center demand, with aluminum electrolytic capacitors appearing more as a comparison category.

  Risks

  Exchange rates, demand cycles, and changes in category mix may affect production value and ASP.

• Japan MLCC export data

  Industry condition validation indicator

  Strengths

  April export value in U.S. dollar terms was +16.0% YoY and +9.1% MoM, while Greater China export ASP was +7.4% MoM, indicating product mix may be improving.

  Weaknesses

  Trade statistics cannot fully provide same-product ASP changes, and export-destination and port mix can affect apparent pricing.

  Comparison

  Export data move in the opposite direction to METI's U.S.-dollar production value of -10.4% YoY, which is a key uncertainty highlighted by the report.

  Risks

  Regional demand fluctuations, customs-port structure, exchange rates, and differences in statistical methodology may distort the signal.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-12 08:22 GMTDisclosed on the front page of the main text.
• Japan industry viewIn-LineCoverage scope is Electronic Components | Japan.
• April MLCC production value (METI, USD)$445.50mn, YoY -10.4%, MoM +11.8%Production value in yen was ¥70.9bn, YoY -1.1%, MoM +12.0%; ASP was ¥0.63.
• April MLCC export value (MoF, USD)$466.23mn, YoY +16.0%, MoM +9.1%Export value in yen was ¥74.2bn, export volume was 93.1bn units, and ASP was ¥0.797.
• 2026 global MLCC shipment value forecast$17.43bn, YoY +18.8%Raised from the previous forecast of $16.48bn and YoY +12.4%.
• 2027 global MLCC shipment value forecast$20.89bn, YoY +19.9%Raised from the previous forecast of $18.34bn and YoY +11.2%.
• 2028 global MLCC shipment value forecast$24.25bn, YoY +16.1%Raised from the previous forecast of $20.30bn and YoY +10.7%.
• 2025 global MLCC shipment value estimate$14.67bn, YoY +10.3%Global MLCC shipment value resumed growth in 2024 and 2025 after consecutive declines in 2022 and 2023.
• Greater China share of April MLCC exports57.7%Greater China export volume was +0.1% MoM, USD export value was +7.5% MoM, and USD ASP was +7.4% MoM.
• Yageo May salesUS$477.70mn, YoY +41.3%, MoM +7.7%Sales scope includes MLCCs, chip resistors, and inductors.
• Walsin May salesNT$3.700bn, YoY +16.5%, MoM -0.1%Walsin is a Taiwanese MLCC manufacturer and is not covered by the report.

Impact & implications

From an investment implication perspective, the report tends to support a medium-term cyclical recovery for the high-end MLCC supply chain, especially for small-size, high-capacitance products related to AI servers, data centers, and GPU upgrades. The opportunity does not come from homogeneous price increases across all MLCCs, but from product mix improvement, high-reliability specifications, and supply capability. Murata Manufacturing is described as a potential beneficiary in high-end products, while peers and upstream materials and equipment companies may also benefit from expanding industry demand, though differences in product positioning, capacity delivery, and pricing pressure need to be distinguished.

Risks

• METI production statistics and MoF trade statistics are moving in different directions, and the report explicitly states that the reason is still unclear.
• ASP in trade statistics is not fully equivalent to same-product price changes, and product mix improvement may amplify apparent ASP.
• If demand related to AI servers, data centers, and next-generation GPUs falls short of expectations, the expansion thesis for high-end MLCCs will weaken.
• If Murata cannot expand capacity in time, it may lose share or affect supply to other applications when demand in computing grows rapidly.
• Unit prices of comparable MLCC products may still decline moderately, and improving industry profitability will require a higher mix of high-value-added products.
• Exchange rates, regional demand, and volatility in Greater China exports may affect production value, export performance, and ASP in U.S. dollar terms.
• Morgan Stanley discloses that it may have business relationships with covered companies, and investors should treat this research as one input to decisions rather than the sole basis.

What to watch

• Whether METI production statistics and MoF trade statistics converge in subsequent months.
• Order and shipment-pull timing for small-size, high-capacitance MLCCs from AI servers, data centers, and next-generation GPUs.
• Murata Manufacturing's capacity expansion progress, lead times, capacity allocation, and high-end product mix.
• Changes in Greater China MLCC export value, volume, and ASP, especially whether product mix improvement continues.
• Trends in export value and ASP at major ports such as Narita, Osaka, and Kansai International.
• Whether Yageo and Walsin continue their year-over-year sales growth in subsequent months.
• The impact of yen exchange-rate changes on production value, export value, and ASP in U.S. dollar terms.