May MLCC exports were in line with seasonality, with IT driven by Taiwan and automotive weakening month over month

Overview

This report tracks Japan customs MLCC trade data for May 2026. Total export volume and export value in May declined month over month after a strong April and due to the Golden Week holiday impact, but overall remained consistent with historical seasonal patterns; in terms of trend, export value in yen continued to grow, and U.S. dollar-denominated value also maintained a mild upward trend. In terms of application mix, IT demand remained relatively resilient, especially driven by the Taiwan market; automotive-related demand weakened noticeably month over month in Europe and the United States, and it remains necessary to observe whether this evolves from one-month volatility into a trend decline.

Core views

The report's core judgments include: first, overall MLCC demand in May did not change its mild recovery trend despite the month-over-month decline; second, IT applications remain the main support, and Taiwan's export value in U.S. dollar terms continues to grow, serving as the subsequent driving force; third, the rapid recovery in automotive applications in March-April did not continue, with significant month-over-month declines in Europe and the U.S. markets; fourth, since April, MLCC stocks have already largely reflected the earnings growth brought by expanding AI server demand, and may enter a range-bound phase in the short term; fifth, the probability of price increases in July-September is low, and the next inflection point for supply-demand and pricing is more likely to appear in October-December and during the progress of 2027 negotiations.

Analysis framework

Based on Japan customs data on MLCC export volume, export value, and ASP by destination, the report uses major Asian destinations such as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India as proxies for IT application demand, and Germany and the Netherlands in Europe as well as the United States as proxies for automotive application demand. It then combines year-over-year and month-over-month changes, seasonal changes over the past 10 years, trends in yen and U.S. dollar terms, and 3MMA year-over-year changes to judge the direction of industry demand.

Methodology notes

• Data frameworkJapan customs MLCC export regional proxy method

  Infer downstream application demand by export destination

  The report maps export data for different regions to demand for IT applications and automotive applications, but this method uses regional proxy variables rather than direct data on end-customer orders or channel inventories.

• Trend framework3MMA year-over-year trend

  Three-month moving average

  The report focuses on the 3MMA year-over-year growth rate to reduce the impact of single-month volatility and holidays, and to better identify trends in MLCC export value and demand.

• Valuation frameworkPeer valuation comparison

  Comparison of target price returns with P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, and ROE

  The report uses valuation comparisons among MLCC-related companies such as Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden, TDK, SEMCO, and Yageo, and supplements this with J.P. Morgan target prices and ratings to assess the relative attractiveness of individual stocks.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MLCC industry

  The core industry asset covered by the report, with demand jointly driven by IT, AI servers, and automotive applications.

  Strengths

  The trend in total export value remains upward, IT-related markets—especially Taiwan—are performing strongly, and demand for high-end MLCC for AI servers provides medium-term incremental growth.

  Weaknesses

  Total volume and value declined month over month in May, automotive-related markets in Europe and the United States were significantly weaker than seasonality, and ASP declined slightly month over month.

  Comparison

  IT applications are stronger than automotive applications; Taiwan is stronger than South Korea and China, while the automotive proxy markets in Europe and the United States are clearly weak.

  Risks

  If the automotive decline continues, AI server ramp-up falls short of expectations, or price increases are delayed, the slope of the industry recovery may be lower than expected.

• Murata Manufacturing (6981, 6981.T)

  JPMorgan maintains OW, making it one of the top MLCC picks and relatively more preferred.

  Strengths

  The report believes it has advanced production technology, strong quality capabilities, and a leading product roadmap, making it best positioned to benefit from expanding demand for AI-related MLCC.

  Weaknesses

  The stock price has risen significantly since April and has already reflected a large amount of earnings growth from expanding AI server application demand in the short term.

  Comparison

  Compared with Taiyo Yuden, the report prefers Murata Manufacturing because its earnings leverage to high-end AI server MLCC supply and product roadmap is more clearly favorable.

  Risks

  If tight supply and demand for high-end MLCC do not become evident in the supply chain, or if price negotiations in October-December do not lead to price hikes, valuation support may come under pressure.

• Taiyo Yuden (6976, 6976.T)

  JPMorgan maintains OW, making it one of the top MLCC picks.

  Strengths

  As an MLCC-related stock, it benefits from improving industry demand, growth in AI server applications, and potential tightening in supply and demand.

  Weaknesses

  The report is less favorable toward it than toward Murata Manufacturing, and its stock price has likewise already priced in considerable earnings growth expectations in advance.

  Comparison

  Compared with Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden remains favored, but the report believes Murata Manufacturing is better positioned for expanding AI-related high-end MLCC demand.

  Risks

  If the industry enters a range-bound phase, there are no price hikes in July-September, or automotive and general IT demand remain weak, the pace of stock price appreciation may slow.

Key data

• Total MLCC export volume in May83.837 billion units, +7.0% year over year, -9.9% month over monthThe month-over-month decline was basically in line with the seasonal pattern for May over the past 10 years.
• Total MLCC export value in MayUS$411 million, +8.5% year over year, -11.8% month over month; ¥65.035 billion, +18.6% year over year, -12.3% month over monthThe trend in yen terms continued to grow, while U.S. dollar terms maintained a mild upward trend.
• Total MLCC ASP in May0.49 U.S. cents, +1.4% year over year, -2.1% month over month; ¥0.78, +10.8% year over year, -2.7% month over monthASP declined slightly month over month, but the slow upward trend remains intact.
• Exports to major IT-related marketsExport volume 68.595 billion units, +8.7% year over year, -6.6% month over month; export value US$300.2 million, +13.0% year over year, -7.3% month over monthThe month-over-month changes in volume and value were broadly consistent with seasonality, and the trend remains upward.
• Exports to TaiwanExport volume 14.740 billion units, +8.6% year over year, +37.9% month over month; export value US$69.40 million, +19.2% year over year, +17.3% month over monthTaiwan is the main driver of growth in U.S. dollar terms for IT applications.
• Exports to major automotive-related marketsExport volume 8.603 billion units, -7.2% year over year, -22.4% month over month; export value US$63.10 million, -16.3% year over year, -25.1% month over monthThe decline was significantly weaker than historical seasonality, indicating that the strength in March-April did not continue.
• European automotive proxy marketsExport volume to Germany and the Netherlands 3.857 billion units, -11.0% year over year, -29.9% month over month; export value US$30.80 million, -23.2% year over year, -24.5% month over monthThe report notes that it is necessary to observe whether a gradual downward trend is emerging rather than one-month volatility.
• U.S. automotive proxy marketExport volume 4.746 billion units, -3.8% year over year, -14.9% month over month; export value US$32.40 million, -8.6% year over year, -25.7% month over monthThe sharp month-over-month decline in export value is important evidence of weakening automotive demand.
• Top stock picksMurata Manufacturing (6981) OW, target price ¥15,200; Taiyo Yuden (6976) OW, target price ¥22,500The report prefers Murata Manufacturing over the two because its advanced production technology, quality capabilities, and product roadmap position it better to benefit from expanding AI-related MLCC demand.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the recovery in MLCC industry demand continues to be supported by IT and AI server-related demand, but stock prices have already largely reflected the rapidly upwardly revised earnings expectations from April to June. If clear price hike signals are absent in July-September, related stocks may remain range-bound. If shipments of high-end, cutting-edge MLCC for AI servers begin to increase more visibly in October-December, and tightening supply-demand conditions are reflected in customer negotiations for 2027, the industry may see a new catalyst for upward revisions in prices and earnings.

Risks

• MLCC exports for automotive use in Europe and the United States were significantly weaker than seasonality in May; if this is not one-month volatility but a downward trend, it will drag on the industry's demand structure.
• The probability of MLCC price increases in July-September is considered low, and the lack of a short-term pricing catalyst may keep related stocks range-bound.
• MLCC stocks have risen sharply since April; if the pace of realization of expanding AI server demand is slower than market expectations, valuations may pull back.
• Monthly fluctuations in regions such as India and the Philippines are relatively large, and single-month data may introduce noise, so over-interpretation should be avoided.
• There are differences between the trends in yen and U.S. dollar terms, and exchange rate changes may affect judgments on export value and ASP.

What to watch

• Whether MLCC export value to Taiwan in U.S. dollar terms continues to rise.
• Whether automotive-related export volume and export value to Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States recover after June, or continue to show a gradual decline.
• Whether total export value in yen terms, U.S. dollar terms, and the 3MMA year-over-year trend continue to grow.
• Whether shipments of high-end, cutting-edge MLCC for AI servers begin to increase more visibly in October-December 2026.
• Whether customer negotiations for 2027 reflect tightening MLCC supply and demand and lead to rising prices.
• The range-bound trading zone and valuation digestion of Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden after their rapid stock price gains.