US autonomous vehicles and robotaxi market: US robotaxis are scaling, but fleet supply and commercialization will determine the competitive outcome

Overview

This report launches Bernstein’s regular US autonomous-vehicle tracker. It argues that commercial robotaxis are moving from limited deployments toward broader scaling, although the pace will be set less by consumer interest than by vehicle supply, operational execution, regulation and fleet economics.

Core views

Bernstein identifies Waymo as the clear leader in the current US robotaxi market. It counts 15 active US deployment markets and estimates roughly 5.3K active commercial AVs, most of them operated by Waymo. Waymo’s fleet exceeded 4K in early September, with an estimated 4.1K vehicles and 80–85% concentrated in its five largest cities. Tesla is the second-largest deployment, though much of its roughly 1.1K estimated fleet is operating under supervision in the Bay Area. Texas is becoming increasingly important because of its accommodative regulatory environment and commercial conditions; registered-versus-active fleet data point to another roughly 1.1K vehicles potentially reaching Texas roads soon. The report sees supply, rather than end demand, as the main near-term bottleneck. Consumers are increasingly receptive to AV rides as safety and experience improve, and lower prices could increase long-run demand. However, scaling requires OEM partnerships, depot and fleet operations, regulatory support, software progress, and improved utilization. Deadhead miles and utilization remain material obstacles to fleet economics and to the ability to attract third-party financing. Bernstein believes AVs can expand the rideshare market beyond driver-led supply, but they remain a small national share today. Waymo’s progress illustrates both the opportunity and the constraint. It reached 500K weekly trips in March and targets 1M paid weekly trips by year-end 2026, a goal Bernstein considers potentially challenging because it depends on a rapid vehicle ramp into year-end. The firm estimates Waymo will deliver about 33M paid trips in 2026, approximately twice the 16M facilitated in 2025. At the national level, AVs are expected to comprise about 1.1% of US rideshare in 2026 and around 1.6% exiting the year if Waymo achieves its target. Within operating zones, Waymo’s share ranges from low single digits to mid-single digits in newer cities and reaches low-to-mid-teens in established urban markets. The report estimates aggregate fleet productivity in the low 20s trips per vehicle per day, with San Francisco likely higher. Bernstein expects a sharp expansion in vehicle availability over the next several years if technology and regulation continue to progress. Waymo’s reported Hyundai arrangement could add about 50K vehicles by 2028, primarily for domestic use in Bernstein’s assumption. Zoox has approval for up to 5K vehicles over two years and production capacity of 10K annually. Uber has agreements including a 35K-plus Nuro and Lucid arrangement and an initial 5K deployment with Stellantis and Nvidia. Tesla’s installed Cybercab production capacity exceeds 125K vehicles, making manufacturing a strategic advantage, but the report flags uncertainty over its vision-only approach and potential regulatory constraints around Cybercab. Competition is likely to intensify and fragment in 2027–28. Bernstein views Waymo as best-in-class on safety, while Tesla has accelerated unsupervised robotaxi miles from 380K in July to 1M in September and has reported just under 2.5M cumulative paid robotaxi miles as of 2Q26. The firm awaits more safety and incident data from Tesla and NHTSA. It expects rideshare partnerships to become increasingly important for other AV developers: Nuro, Wayve and Zoox matter most for Uber’s US deployments, while Lyft could become a stronger Waymo partner amid Waymo’s tension with Uber. Bernstein argues that greater AV technology fragmentation is important for Uber and Lyft as stocks because it could enable their networks to serve multiple autonomous partners rather than face a single dominant operator. For the covered rideshare companies, Bernstein rates Uber Outperform and Lyft Market-Perform. It made no changes to Uber’s model. For Lyft, it modestly lowered its 2H26 rides-volume assumption following guidance for similar year-over-year growth in 2H26 and 1H26, while leaving Gross Bookings unchanged because it now assumes higher gross bookings per trip. It also raised Lyft’s tax-rate and acquisition-expense assumptions, reducing GAAP EPS modestly. Bernstein identifies 2027 growth as a key question for Lyft and, to a lesser extent, Uber as insurance tailwinds fade and AV competition increases.

Analysis framework

Bernstein tracks active fleets, deployment markets, registered vehicles, paid trips, passenger miles, app activity and launch timelines to assess robotaxi commercialization. It then links fleet supply, operating constraints, safety progress and partnership structures to competitive implications for Uber and Lyft, supported by company reports, public data, crowdsourced fleet data and Bernstein estimates.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Fleet supply and demand analysis

  The report treats vehicle availability, OEM production, fleet operations and regulation as the binding supply factors, while using ride volumes, app activity and pricing potential to assess demand.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Discounted cash flow valuation for Uber and Lyft

  Bernstein values Uber and Lyft partly through DCFs using stated WACCs and terminal-growth assumptions, treating stock-based compensation as a cash expense.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA valuation

  Lyft NTM EV/EBITDA multiple valuation

  Lyft’s target price uses a 50/50 blend of an 8x next-twelve-month EV/EBITDA multiple and a DCF.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

  Covered rideshare platform positioned to integrate multiple AV partners globally.

  Strengths

  Bernstein rates Uber Outperform and highlights agreements with AV partners including Nuro, Zoox, Wayve, Nvidia and others.

  Weaknesses

  Growth may face fading insurance tailwinds and greater AV competition.

  Comparison

  Bernstein views Uber as larger and more diversified than Lyft; its app-session share remains about two-thirds versus Lyft’s one-third.

  Risks

  Gross Bookings misses, margin pressure, driver-supply constraints, regulation, aggressive competition, Freight execution and an economically superior robotaxi alternative.

• Lyft Inc (LYFT)

  Covered rideshare platform that could become a stronger Waymo partner and integrate additional AV providers.

  Strengths

  Potential AV go-to-market through existing rideshare networks could reduce costs, improve ride frequency and expand long-term market penetration.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein lowered its 2H26 rides-volume assumption and raised tax-rate and acquisition-expense assumptions.

  Comparison

  Lyft is the smaller rideshare player, with roughly one-third of observable app sessions versus Uber’s two-thirds.

  Risks

  Demand or supply deterioration, elevated incentives and insurance costs, structural driver-supply gaps, regulation and irrational pricing in a highly competitive market.

• Waymo

  Leading commercial robotaxi operator and the benchmark competitor in the US AV market.

  Strengths

  More than 4K operating vehicles, broad US presence, improving deadhead-mile performance and a target of 1M paid weekly trips by year-end 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Growth remains constrained by vehicle supply and fleet-ramp timing.

  Comparison

  Bernstein considers Waymo best-in-class on safety and materially ahead of other AV operators.

  Risks

  Scaling depends on supply, operational execution, regulation and the ability to sustain safe expansion into new driving environments.

Key data

• Active US commercial AV fleet~5.3K vehiclesBernstein estimate; Waymo accounts for the bulk of active vehicles.
• Waymo fleet~4.1K vehiclesEstimated in early September 2026; 80–85% located in its five largest cities.
• Waymo 2026 paid trips~33MBernstein estimate, about double 16M trips in 2025.
• US rideshare volume represented by AVs~1.1% in 2026; ~1.6% exiting 2026The year-end estimate assumes Waymo reaches its 1M weekly paid-trip target.
• Tesla unsupervised robotaxi miles380K in July to 1M in SeptemberAcceleration highlighted by the report.
• Uber valuation$95 price targetBased on a 50/50 blend of 15x NTM P/FCF and DCF using 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth.
• Lyft valuation$18 price targetBased on a 50/50 blend of 8x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF using 13% WACC and 2% terminal growth.

Impact & implications

Bernstein argues that robotaxis are becoming a material feature of major urban rideshare markets but remain too small to reshape national volumes immediately. The key investment implication for Uber and Lyft is whether AV technology becomes sufficiently fragmented for their networks to partner with multiple suppliers, rather than whether a single vertically integrated AV operator dominates.

Risks

• Rideshare Gross Bookings could miss forecasts if market penetration is saturated or demand weakens amid macro headwinds.
• Slower growth, stronger competition, driver incentives and insurance costs could pressure EBITDA and margin forecasts.
• A structural driver-supply shortage could impair rideshare growth and profitability.
• Regulatory outcomes on driver classification, delivery fee caps and related policy issues could negatively affect Uber and Lyft.
• An economically superior autonomous robotaxi alternative could pose an existential competitive risk to Uber.

What to watch

• Waymo’s pace of fleet additions and progress toward 1M paid weekly trips by year-end 2026.
• Texas fleet registrations and the timing of additional AV vehicles entering service.
• Tesla’s Cybercab regulatory approvals, unsupervised deployment growth and safety-incident data.
• Launch execution by Nuro, Zoox, Wayve, Avride, Momenta and May Mobility on Uber’s network.
• Whether AV technology fragments sufficiently to support multiple rideshare-platform partnerships in 2027 and beyond.
• Lyft’s 2H26 rides growth, gross bookings per trip, insurance costs and 2027 growth trajectory.