US autonomous vehicles and robotaxi market: Bernstein sees the US robotaxi market scaling rapidly, but fleet supply and execution will determine whether competition broadens beyond Waymo.

Overview

Bernstein launches a recurring US autonomous-vehicle tracker, arguing that commercial robotaxi deployment is becoming tangible but remains constrained by vehicle supply, operations, software progress and regulation. The report tracks Waymo’s leadership, Tesla’s developing rollout, prospective platform launches, and the implications for Uber and Lyft.

Core views

Bernstein estimates that approximately 5.3K commercial AVs are active in the US, led overwhelmingly by Waymo, and sees Texas registrations pointing to at least 6.5K active vehicles soon. The firm counts 15 active US deployment markets. AVs are still a small share of the national rideshare market—about 1.1% in 2026 and potentially about 1.6% exiting 2026 if Waymo achieves its target—but have become more meaningful in major urban operating zones. Bernstein views fleet supply as the key determinant of adoption, despite improving consumer interest, safety and experience. Waymo is the current benchmark. Its operating fleet exceeded 4K in early September, which Bernstein estimates at roughly 4.1K, with 80–85% located in its five largest cities. Waymo reached 500K weekly trips in March and targets 1M paid weekly trips by year-end 2026; Bernstein considers that target potentially challenging because it depends on a rapid vehicle ramp, though the timing is a relatively minor issue for the broader AV thesis. The firm expects Waymo to reach about 33M trips in 2026, approximately double its 16M trips in 2025. Within established cities, third-party estimates place Waymo’s local rideshare share in the low-to-mid teens, while it remains much smaller nationally. Bernstein also notes operational progress: the fleet appears to facilitate low-20s trips per vehicle per day, and deadhead-mile efficiency in California has improved as the operating area expanded. The report argues that the industry is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Growth depends on OEM partnerships, depot and fleet operations, regulatory support, and continued advances in driving software. Deadhead miles and utilization remain hurdles to fleet economics and third-party financing. Under continued technology progress and accommodating regulation, Bernstein expects tens of thousands of AVs to enter US service over the next few years. It cites a reported Waymo-Hyundai arrangement for roughly 50K vehicles by 2028, Zoox authorization to add up to 5K vehicles over two years and 10K annual production capacity, Uber’s 35K-plus Nuro/Lucid arrangement, and an initial 5K Stellantis/Nvidia deployment. Tesla’s installed Cybercab production capacity exceeds 125K vehicles, but Bernstein considers its vision-only scalability and potential regulatory constraints important uncertainties. Tesla is the most important emerging competitive variable in Bernstein’s view. The company is estimated to have nearly 1.1K AVs in operation, mostly supervised in the Bay Area, while unsupervised service in Texas and Florida has accelerated. Tesla reported unsupervised robotaxi miles rising from 380K in July to 1M in September, and had facilitated just under 2.5M paid robotaxi miles cumulatively as of 2Q26. Bernstein sees better implied safety trends but awaits additional company and NHTSA incident data; it still places Waymo ahead on safety. Zoox is estimated to operate around 100 vehicles and has approvals for up to 5K over two years. The firm expects 2027 to clarify how many credible competitors Waymo will face. For rideshare platforms, Bernstein believes more AV competition and technology fragmentation are important for Uber and Lyft. Uber expects 15 cities with AV deployments by year-end 2026—six in the US and nine internationally—and Bernstein highlights Nuro in the Bay Area and Houston, Zoox in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, and Wayve in London and Tokyo as especially relevant. The report sees Lyft as having an opportunity to become a stronger Waymo partner amid Waymo’s tension with Uber, while cautioning that either platform may ultimately face a difficult "frenemy" relationship with AV providers. Bernstein rates Uber Outperform and Lyft Market-Perform. It reduced Lyft’s second-half 2026 rides-volume assumption following management guidance for similar year-on-year growth in the second half versus the first, while leaving its gross-bookings forecast unchanged because it now assumes higher gross bookings per trip. It also raised Lyft tax-rate and acquisition-expense assumptions, modestly reducing GAAP EPS, and made no changes to its Uber model. The report frames AVs as a potentially pie-expanding, lower-cost rideshare service over the long run, but not yet a decisive national disruption. User data show Uber and Lyft retain higher sessions per user than pure-play AV apps, which Bernstein attributes to reliability and availability. At the same time, Waymo captured 12–13% of incremental US app downloads during the year, and Tesla downloads rose around its Cybercab event. Bernstein’s conclusion is that greater AV supply, verified safety, broader operating zones and viable fleet economics—not interest alone—will establish the pace and competitive consequences of commercial adoption.

Analysis framework

Bernstein builds a deployment tracker from company reports, government records, press reports, crowdsourced fleet data, app data and its own estimates. It compares active fleets, registrations, trip volumes, miles, local market presence and planned launches, then assesses how vehicle supply, operations, regulation and software progress affect adoption and rideshare-platform competition. For Uber and Lyft, it also updates operating assumptions and applies blended market-multiple and discounted-cash-flow valuation methods.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Fleet supply versus consumer demand for AV rideshare

  The report treats vehicle availability, OEM capacity, fleet operations and regulation as the binding constraints on AV growth, while viewing demand as supported by safety, experience and eventually lower prices.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  OEM, AV developer, fleet operator and rideshare-platform linkage

  Bernstein evaluates how vehicle manufacturers, autonomy providers, fleet operations and Uber/Lyft partnerships determine the pace at which AV capacity reaches passengers.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Discounted cash flow valuation for Uber and Lyft

  Uber’s valuation includes a DCF using a 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate, while Lyft’s uses a 13% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate.

• Valuation methods

  Blended forward valuation multiples and DCF

  Bernstein values Uber with a 50/50 mix of 15x next-twelve-month P/FCF and DCF, and Lyft with a 50/50 mix of 8x next-twelve-month EV/EBITDA and DCF.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

  Covered rideshare platform expected to add AV partners and deployments to its network.

  Strengths

  Bernstein expects 15 AV-deployment cities by YE26, including six US and nine international markets; it identifies Nuro, Zoox and Wayve progress as especially important.

  Weaknesses

  The long-term effect of AV competition on the platform remains uncertain.

  Comparison

  Rated Outperform, versus Lyft’s Market-Perform rating.

  Risks

  Robotaxis could become an economically superior alternative; slower growth, competition, costs, regulatory restrictions and driver-supply constraints could pressure results.

• Lyft Inc (LYFT)

  Covered rideshare platform that could expand its Waymo partnership and integrate other AV technologies.

  Strengths

  A stronger Waymo partnership and lower AV-service costs could improve frequency and long-term market penetration.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein lowered its second-half 2026 rides-volume assumption and increased tax-rate and acquisition-expense assumptions, modestly reducing GAAP EPS.

  Comparison

  Rated Market-Perform, versus Uber’s Outperform rating.

  Risks

  Rideshare competition, insurance and driver-incentive costs, regulation, structural driver-supply gaps, and AV disruption remain risks.

• Waymo

  Leading commercial robotaxi operator and benchmark competitor in US AV deployment.

  Strengths

  More than 4K vehicles, strong trip growth, improving operational efficiency and Bernstein’s view that it remains best-in-class on safety.

  Weaknesses

  Growth remains dependent on rapid vehicle supply expansion and execution against the YE26 trip target.

  Comparison

  Bernstein views Waymo as ahead of Tesla and other AV players on safety.

  Risks

  Fleet ramp timing, operational scaling, regulation and continued software progress.

• Tesla

  Emerging robotaxi competitor with vertically integrated vehicle manufacturing.

  Strengths

  Production scale and accelerating unsupervised-mile deployment are viewed as key advantages if its software proves scalable.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein cites questions around the vision-only approach and readiness for broad commercialization.

  Comparison

  Waymo remains ahead on safety in Bernstein’s assessment.

  Risks

  Cybercab approval, potential regulatory constraints and the need for further safety data.

Key data

• Active US AV fleet~5.3K vehiclesBernstein estimate; Texas registrations imply at least 6.5K active vehicles soon.
• Waymo operating fleet~4.1K vehiclesExceeded 4K in early September; 80–85% concentrated in its five largest cities.
• Waymo 2026 trips~33MBernstein forecast, approximately double 16M trips in 2025.
• Waymo weekly-trip target1M paid weekly trips by YE26Waymo target; Bernstein says the vehicle ramp will determine whether it is achieved.
• AV share of US rideshare~1.1% in 2026; ~1.6% exiting 2026The higher exit rate assumes Waymo meets its target.
• Tesla unsupervised miles380K in July to 1M in SeptemberReported acceleration cited by Bernstein.
• Uber target price$95Based on 50/50 NTM P/FCF and DCF valuation.
• Lyft target price$18Based on 50/50 NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF valuation.

Impact & implications

Bernstein views AVs as an early commercial application of “Physical AI” that can expand rideshare demand over time, but believes meaningful market impact depends on scaling fleets efficiently and safely. A more fragmented AV-provider market could strengthen Uber and Lyft’s role as demand aggregators, while a superior direct robotaxi alternative could create disruption.

Risks

• AV deployment could remain constrained by vehicle supply, OEM partnerships, fleet operations, utilization, deadhead miles and regulatory limits.
• Tesla’s vision-only approach and Cybercab rollout may face scalability or regulatory challenges.
• For Uber and Lyft, slower demand, intensified competition, elevated insurance or driver costs, structural driver-supply gaps and regulatory changes could impair growth or margins.
• Autonomous robotaxis could become an economically superior alternative to traditional rideshare models.

What to watch

• Waymo’s vehicle ramp and progress toward 1M paid weekly trips by year-end 2026.
• Texas fleet registrations and whether the implied additional ~1.1K AVs enter service.
• Tesla safety and incident data, NHTSA decisions on Cybercab, and the pace of unsupervised deployments.
• Launch execution by Uber partners including Nuro, Zoox, Wayve, Motional, May Mobility and Nvidia-enabled programs.
• Whether AV competition fragments enough to support Uber and Lyft as network partners, particularly in 2027 and beyond.