US autonomous vehicles, robotaxis and AV ecosystem Report Interpretation

Overview

This quarterly tracker reviews US robotaxi and autonomous-vehicle activity through August 2026, covering safety, app adoption, fleet and geographic expansion, partnerships, and implications for rideshare and auto-technology companies. Goldman Sachs finds deployment momentum is continuing, but operating scale, user engagement, safety comparability and execution against stated timelines remain central questions.

Core views

Safety data point to a meaningful reported scale gap between Waymo and Tesla, while the comparison has important limitations. Using NHTSA crash data from July 2025 through mid-July 2026 and company disclosures, Goldman Sachs estimates Tesla recorded an accident regardless of fault every 50K-70K fully driverless robotaxi miles, versus every 160K-180K miles for Waymo. Tesla's estimated figure was about 33K miles in June 2026; it reported no fully driverless-vehicle accidents in January-March and the first half of July. Waymo reported 11 accidents in July over an estimated 11.5 million miles in the first half of that month. The firm cautions that Waymo operates commercially in more cities, NHTSA reports can include minor incidents, and not all accidents are AV-fault events. Its Tesla calculation excludes Texas rides with a safety monitor and California ride-hail activity, and excludes pre-January 2026 data because fully driverless Tesla rides began then. Consumer adoption is rising from a low base. SensorTower data show Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi monthly active users increased month on month in July; Waymo's year-on-year app-MAU growth accelerated to 54% from 14% in June. Waymo has gained relative to Uber's US MAUs year to date, while Tesla has increased meaningfully as a share of Waymo MAUs. Tesla's direct-to-consumer robotaxi app has grown at a faster monthly rate since June and showed slightly higher session engagement than Waymo, but Waymo retains more downloads. Both AV apps remain less frequently used than Uber and Lyft, though the session-count gap has narrowed over the past six-plus months. Since January 2026, Waymo represented about 12%-13% of downloads among Uber, Lyft, Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi, while Tesla Robotaxi represented 1%-2%; most downloads still came from Uber and Lyft. Deployment and partnership activity continue to broaden. Texas registrations indicate a Waymo fleet of 736 vehicles and Tesla's registered fleet at 314, although these figures can include non-operational, test or safety-monitored vehicles. Waymo's June NHTSA filing indicated roughly 3,900 vehicles, while media reports cited a fleet exceeding 4,000 including Ojai vehicles. Waymo made rides fully public in Nashville, Dallas and Houston, began limited waitlist-based public rides in Denver, San Diego and Tampa on September 1, and introduced Ojai with Gemini-enabled cabin controls and journey features. Tesla expanded solely driverless service from Austin to Dallas and Houston in mid-April and Miami, Tampa and Orlando in mid-July. Management said it had driven more than 380K fully driverless miles, out of roughly 2 million paid miles, with no at-fault notable accident in those driverless miles; early FSD v15 versions are running in robotaxis. Goldman Sachs views software improvement, notably v15, as the nearer-term potential lever, while Cybercab could lower costs. Rideshare platforms are building the demand and fleet-partnership layer around AV supply. Uber committed over $10bn across AV equity investments, infrastructure and vehicle-offtake commitments, aims to expand to as many as 15 cities by year-end, and said partners have committed about 120,000 vehicles to its network over coming years. Its Pony.ai collaboration targets deployment of more than 2,000 robotaxis in Zagreb and four additional European cities; Uber also has a Tokyo pilot planned for late 2026 and Avride exceeded 100K rides on the platform as of August 12. Lyft's Nashville Waymo fleet operations began in June, with a permanent depot expected in October; Freenow and Baidu began London AV testing. Goldman Sachs says both Uber and Lyft are likely to continue investing in third-party partnerships to serve as asset-light marketplaces for AV fleets. Other AV programs show varied timing and business-model progress. Zoox received the first NHTSA commercial exemption for a purpose-built autonomous robotaxi, began charging for Las Vegas rides on August 10, and was testing in 10 cities while offering public rides in two. Rivian reiterated its 2028 initial Miami and San Francisco launch target with Uber, under which Uber may deploy up to 50K R2-based robotaxis and invest up to $1.25bn; expansion to 25 cities, potentially including Europe and Canada, is planned by 2031. Mobileye remains on track for an Orlando deployment with VW Group's MOIA and Beep without a safety driver by year-end, with scaling in 2027, but its Uber Los Angeles launch moved to 2027 from the prior end-2026 expectation. Aurora began driverless International-truck deployments, targets roughly 200 driverless trucks exiting 2026, a 2027 transition to its DaaS model, and run-rate gross-margin breakeven exiting 2026. For listed auto and industrial-technology names, Goldman Sachs emphasizes the pace of fully driverless scale, software functionality and the economics of recurring software revenue. Tesla's robotaxi performance, cross-city scaling and its ability to make consumer FSD eyes-off remain key, with the company indicating late 2026 at the earliest for the latter and only on HW4/AI4 vehicles. Rivian's roadmap includes point-to-point L2, lidar and RAP1 later in 2026, L3 in 2027 and L4 with Uber in 2028. Aurora's ramp, margin and free-cash-flow targets remain important. The firm also notes GM and Ford expect expanding L2+ offerings to support higher-margin revenue as capable vehicles and subscriptions grow.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines public crash filings and company mileage disclosures to estimate miles between accidents, while flagging differences in operating geographies and reporting conventions. It uses SensorTower MAUs, sessions and downloads to assess consumer adoption, then tracks announced operations, fleet information, earnings commentary, commercial agreements and stated milestones to evaluate deployment and ecosystem economics.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  AV ecosystem supply and demand aggregation

  The report assesses fleet operators, software providers and rideshare platforms as linked parts of the AV ecosystem, focusing on whether deployments create supply and whether marketplaces can generate demand.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Autonomous-vehicle ecosystem and partnership transmission

  The report links technology and vehicle providers, fleet operators, and rideshare demand platforms to explain how deployment progress could translate into commercial scale and recurring revenue.

• Other

  Miles-between-accidents tracking

  The firm estimates safety performance by dividing reported fully driverless miles by reported accidents, while noting that geography, reporting lags and incident definitions limit direct comparability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER)

  Rideshare demand platform and AV-partnership aggregator.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs cites AV investment plans above $10bn, expansion potential to up to 15 cities by year-end, and partner commitments of about 120,000 vehicles.

  Comparison

  Alongside Lyft, positioned as an asset-light marketplace for third-party AV fleet operators.

  Risks

  Slower Mobility growth, regulation, market share and consumer discretionary habits.

• Lyft Inc. (LYFT)

  Rideshare platform pursuing third-party AV partnerships.

  Strengths

  Waymo fleet operations began in Nashville in June; a permanent depot is expected in October, and Freenow/Baidu began London testing.

  Comparison

  Like Uber, it is positioned to aggregate AV supply while traditional rideshare apps retain higher usage than AV apps.

  Risks

  Slower Mobility growth, regulation, market share and consumer discretionary habits.

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

  Robotaxi operator and AV-software developer.

  Strengths

  Expanded driverless service to additional metros; management reported over 380K fully driverless miles without an at-fault notable accident and early FSD v15 deployment.

  Weaknesses

  Reported accident frequency is lower than Waymo's estimated level, and fully driverless scale remains limited relative to total paid miles.

  Comparison

  Waymo has higher reported safety mileage, more app downloads and broader commercial operations; Tesla's app has grown faster since June and has slightly higher session engagement than Waymo.

  Risks

  EV adoption, margins, market share, auto-cycle conditions, operational execution, key-person risk, FSD/4680 capabilities and tariffs.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) / Waymo

  Waymo is a leading robotaxi operator within Alphabet's ecosystem.

  Strengths

  Higher estimated miles between accidents than Tesla, growing MAUs, more downloads than Tesla Robotaxi, expanding fleet and new public ride launches.

  Weaknesses

  Engagement remains below Uber and Lyft, and data are not fully comparable across operating cities.

  Comparison

  Waymo's accident frequency estimate of 160K-180K miles exceeds Tesla's 50K-70K estimate.

  Risks

  Advertising market share, search headwinds, shifting media consumption, regulatory scrutiny and margins.

• Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN)

  Vehicle and AV-software partner for Uber's planned robotaxi deployment.

  Strengths

  Uber may deploy up to 50K R2-based robotaxis and invest up to $1.25bn; Rivian expects licensing fees for vehicles using its technology.

  Weaknesses

  Initial launch is not expected until 2028.

  Comparison

  R2 robotaxis will be exclusive to Uber's platform, although Rivian may sell AV software to consumers.

  Risks

  Pre-orders and sales volumes, production ramp, market share, margins, software/services mix, auto-cycle conditions, EV adoption and tariffs.

• Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)

  AV technology provider and prospective robotaxi operator.

  Strengths

  Orlando deployment without a safety driver remains targeted by year-end; the company plans its own 2027 robotaxi launch with an initial 100-vehicle fleet.

  Weaknesses

  Uber Los Angeles launch timing moved to 2027 from end-2026.

  Comparison

  Its own robotaxi effort will use Drive technology integrated with VW/MOIA and operate on the Moovit platform.

  Risks

  Auto-cycle conditions, market share, margins, AV/ADAS penetration and tariffs.

• Aurora Innovation Inc. (AUR)

  Autonomous-trucking operator and software provider.

  Strengths

  Started driverless deployments, added TaaS customers and reiterated a target of roughly 200 driverless trucks exiting 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Must execute the DaaS transition and meet margin and cash-flow objectives.

  Comparison

  TaaS involves Aurora owning and operating trucks; DaaS is planned for 2027, with customers owning trucks and paying Aurora per mile.

  Risks

  AV ramp, pricing, margins and capital needs.

Key data

• Tesla estimated accident frequencyEvery 50K-70K milesGoldman Sachs estimate for fully driverless robotaxi operations using available reported data.
• Waymo estimated accident frequencyEvery 160K-180K milesGoldman Sachs estimate; Waymo reported 11 July accidents over an estimated 11.5 million first-half July miles.
• Waymo July app-MAU growth+54% YoYAccelerated from +14% in June.
• US rideshare-app download share since January 2026Waymo ~12%-13%; Tesla Robotaxi 1%-2%Share across Uber, Lyft, Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi; most downloads remain with Uber and Lyft.
• Uber AV commitmentOver $10bnPlanned equity investments, infrastructure and vehicle-offtake commitments in coming years.
• Uber partner vehicle commitments~120,000 vehiclesCommitted to the Uber network over coming years.
• Tesla fully driverless milesOver 380K milesManagement statement; out of roughly 2 million paid miles.
• Aurora year-end 2026 driverless-truck target~200 trucksTarget alongside run-rate gross-margin breakeven exiting 2026.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs frames AV commercialization as an execution and scaling story: safety indicators, fully driverless operating scale, consumer usage, partnership rollout and unit economics will determine progress. It considers Uber and Lyft well positioned to benefit by aggregating AV supply as asset-light third-party marketplaces, while auto-technology companies must demonstrate operational, software and margin milestones.

Risks

• Safety comparisons are not directly comparable because Waymo and Tesla operate in different locations, NHTSA reports can include minor incidents, and accidents may not be AV-fault events.
• Robotaxi deployment and execution against announced timelines, including profitability and consumer willingness to pay, remain key uncertainties.
• Tesla must scale fully driverless service and improve software functionality; Mobileye's Los Angeles launch has already shifted to 2027.
• Uber and Lyft face risks from Mobility growth, regulation, market share and consumer-discretionary demand.
• Aurora faces AV-ramp, pricing, margin and capital-needs risks.

What to watch

• Miles between accidents for Waymo and Tesla in coming quarters.
• Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi MAU growth, sessions and download share relative to Uber and Lyft.
• The pace of fully driverless expansion within and across Tesla's cities, including progress on FSD v15.
• Uber and Lyft AV partnership announcements, deployment scale and rideshare market-share dynamics.
• Progress toward stated milestones for Rivian, Mobileye and Aurora, including Aurora's margin and free-cash-flow targets.