Goldman Sachs expects solid Q2 performance for the ridesharing and delivery sector, while online grocery remains a low-penetration, high-growth opportunity

Overview

This is Goldman Sachs’ Q2 2026 earnings preview and industry update for the Americas internet ridesharing and delivery sector. The report focuses on four companies—UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT—and analyzes consumer conditions, the competitive landscape in online grocery, the impact of autonomous driving, MAU and download share, NPS/NPI consumer feedback, company valuations, and price targets. The overall conclusion is positive: second-quarter results are expected to be solid, consumer demand has not shown clear deterioration, and online grocery and local commerce still offer long-term structural growth opportunities.

Core views

The core views include: first, second-quarter results for the ridesharing and delivery sector are expected to be broadly in line with or above market expectations, and investor concerns about consumer weakness have not yet been clearly reflected in trends at covered companies. Second, U.S. online grocery remains a low online-penetration category, and Goldman Sachs expects the industry to grow at an approximately 11% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with the delivery channel at about 16%, serving as the main source of incremental growth. Third, concerns about the near-term impact of autonomous driving have declined; Waymo recalls and supply constraints mean traditional ridesharing platforms are still likely to play an important role in the near term, while Uber is positioning in autonomous driving through both internal capabilities and external partnerships. Fourth, at the company level Goldman Sachs continues to favor UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT, all of which retain Buy ratings, though some price targets were cut due to adjustments in share count, valuation methodology, or expense assumptions.

Analysis framework

The report combines updated industry models, company operating estimates, third-party mobile app data, consumer feedback data, and valuation frameworks. In the industry section, U.S. online grocery is divided into three categories: shipped-to-home, same-day delivery, and pickup; in the trends section, SensorTower is used to observe MAU, download share, and regional mix; in the consumer preference section, HundredX’s NPS and NPI are used to measure willingness to recommend and future purchase intent; in the company section, Goldman Sachs estimates, consensus expectations, price target methodologies, and key risks are compared.

Methodology notes

• industry_modelOnline Grocery Category Segmentation

  Dividing U.S. online grocery into shipped-to-home, delivery, and pickup

  The report uses a three-part framework to break down the sources of online grocery growth: shipped-to-home skews toward non-perishables and efficiency/price advantages, delivery emphasizes speed and convenience, and pickup relies on store fulfillment but is expected to have relatively lower growth going forward.

• alternative_dataSensorTower MAU and Download Share

  Using third-party mobile app data to observe platform user and competitive trends

  The report emphasizes that these data may differ from company-reported metrics and are mainly used to identify growth-rate changes and share direction, rather than to precisely replace official operating indicators.

• consumer_surveyHundredX NPS and NPI

  Using consumer willingness to recommend and future purchase intent to assess demand trends

  NPS measures users’ willingness to recommend, while NPI measures the gap between respondents expecting to use more versus less over the next 12 months; the report uses these metrics to judge whether consumer demand is stable and whether different income groups are diverging.

• Valuation methods12-Month Price Target and Estimate Revision

  Providing 12-month price targets based on estimate revisions and valuation methodology

  The report updates operating assumptions, share count assumptions, gross margin assumptions, and expense assumptions for the covered companies, and accordingly maintains or adjusts price targets.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• UBER

  Core covered company, benefiting from platform opportunities in ridesharing, delivery, online grocery, and autonomous driving

  Strengths

  Leading global scale, international MAU growth faster than in the U.S., and autonomous driving partnerships plus internal capability building strengthen long-term optionality.

  Weaknesses

  MAU growth continued to slow in Q2’26, and U.K. accounting changes, gross margin assumptions, and capital expenditure assumptions require adjustment.

  Comparison

  Compared with Lyft, Uber is stronger in global download share and business diversification; compared with pure delivery platforms, Uber covers both mobility and delivery.

  Risks

  Slowing consumer demand, autonomous driving competition, regulatory changes, rising capital expenditures, and pressure on take rate/gross margin.

• DASH

  Core covered company, benefiting from expansion in food delivery, online grocery, and local commerce

  Strengths

  Orders and gross bookings are expected to maintain relatively strong growth, online grocery and local commerce offer substantial expansion room, and Deliveroo and Wolt trends are improving.

  Weaknesses

  Core app MAU growth continues to slow, and regional mix changes affect take rate and gross margin assumptions.

  Comparison

  Compared with Instacart, DoorDash is broader in local commerce and delivery network; compared with Uber Eats, its U.S. local delivery ecosystem is more concentrated.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, rising promotional investment, grocery delivery margin ramp falling short of expectations, and demand divergence among lower-income consumers.

• CART

  A beneficiary with high exposure to online grocery

  Strengths

  Higher online grocery penetration and retailer digitization tools are expected to support long-term growth, and NPS has improved since January.

  Weaknesses

  Q2’26 app MAU declined 10% year over year, and the price target was lowered to $64 due to a share count assumption revision.

  Comparison

  Compared with UBER/DASH, Instacart is more concentrated in grocery; compared with Amazon/Walmart, its asset-light platform model differs but depends on retail partnerships.

  Risks

  Continued MAU decline, retailer markup or price-parity pressure, competitive investment, and order frequency and basket size falling short of expectations.

• LYFT

  Ridesharing exposure in the U.S. and Canada

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs still maintains a Buy rating, NPS has improved by 3-4 points since December 2025, and Canada MAU growth exceeded 30%.

  Weaknesses

  Q2’26 MAU declined 2% year over year, U.S. trends are weak, and the price target was lowered from $24 to $22.

  Comparison

  Compared with Uber, Lyft is more concentrated geographically and by business scope, with weaker global share and diversification.

  Risks

  Weak U.S. user growth, competitive pressure, changes in autonomous driving platforms, expense seasonality, and valuation methodology adjustment risk.

Key data

• U.S. online grocery industry CAGR, 2025-2030+11%Goldman Sachs industry model forecast for the combined three online grocery channels.
• Online grocery sales size in 2030Approximately $400 billionThe report says industry sales could approach this scale by 2030.
• Shipped-to-home CAGR, 2025-2030+9%Driven by efficiency, price, and subscription-style repeat purchases.
• Delivery-based online grocery CAGR, 2025-2030+16%The report believes delivery will contribute the majority of incremental growth.
• Pickup CAGR, 2025-2030+4%Still faster than offline store grocery spending, but no longer the main growth driver.
• Uber Q2’26 global MAU growth+7% YoYInternational market growth is about +10% YoY, continuing to outpace the U.S.
• Lyft Q2’26 MAU growth-2% YoYU.S. performance is relatively weak, but Canada MAU grew by more than 30% during the quarter.
• DoorDash Q2’26 app MAU growth+8% YoYCore app growth continues to slow, while Deliveroo and Wolt trends improved or remained at double-digit growth.
• Instacart Q2’26 app MAU growth-10% YoYThe first sequential decline since Q4 2024, though channel checks still point to resilient demand.
• Waymo app downloads over the past 12 months>4 millionThe report says Waymo reached a low double-digit percentage share of U.S. ridesharing downloads, though year-over-year download growth slowed.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report supports continued focus on the medium- to long-term growth elasticity of ridesharing, food delivery, and online grocery local commerce platforms. Low online grocery penetration, improved delivery speed, inventory digitization, subscriptions, and promotional activity may drive higher penetration and frequency. The short-term impact of autonomous driving on traditional platforms is viewed as limited, but investors still need to track Waymo’s new markets, Uber partnership expansion, and regulatory/recall risks. At the company level, UBER and DASH benefit from scale and multi-business advantages; CART stands to benefit from rising online grocery penetration but its MAU decline needs monitoring; LYFT’s upside comes from valuation and ridesharing recovery, though user trends are relatively weaker.

Risks

• Consumer spending weakens further, especially if demand divergence among some low-income or lower-middle-income groups increases.
• Competition in online grocery intensifies, with promotions, delivery subsidies, and price parity requirements compressing margins.
• Autonomous driving robotaxi expansion is faster than expected, changing the supply-demand and pricing structure of traditional ridesharing platforms.
• Recalls, regulation, or safety incidents involving Waymo or other autonomous driving operators affect the pace of industry development.
• Third-party MAU, download share, and NPS/NPI data differ in methodology from company-reported metrics, which may lead to misjudgment of trends.
• Changes in share count assumptions, accounting treatment, gross margin, take rate, capital expenditures, and operating expense assumptions affect price targets.

What to watch

• Whether Q2 results from UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT meet or exceed investor expectations.
• Management commentary on consumer demand, lower-income cohorts, and order frequency during second-quarter earnings calls.
• U.S. online grocery delivery penetration, order frequency, basket size, and progress on price parity.
• Operational changes by Waymo in markets such as Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, Tampa, Nashville, and Phoenix.
• The commercialization pace of Uber’s autonomous driving partnerships with Nuro, Lucid, WeRide, and others.
• Whether SensorTower MAU and download share continue to show slowing at Uber/DoorDash and pressure at Instacart/Lyft.
• Whether HundredX NPS/NPI continues to support stable demand, especially differences across HHI income groups.