2Q26 results are expected to be broadly solid, with delivery stocks more likely to sustain a fundamentals-driven rally

Overview

The report previews 2Q26 results for UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT. Bernstein believes that although ride-hailing and delivery stocks have recently recovered somewhat, the overall market environment remains challenging. The four companies' data this quarter are expected to be generally good, with forecasts broadly unchanged or modestly raised from prior levels. However, one quarter's results may not be enough to change the valuation narrative: DASH and CART are more driven by orders, GTV, and unit economics improvement, while UBER and LYFT remain affected by autonomous driving competition, ride growth, and earnings expectations.

Core views

The key for DASH is whether organic order growth can re-accelerate and whether third-quarter margins can remain resilient as investment in technology platform restructuring rises. UBER's current valuation risk has been partially released, and second-quarter data are less important than upward operating profit revisions for 2027–2028, the autonomous driving partnership ecosystem, and the rollout of new initiatives. CART is still maintaining double-digit GTV growth despite Amazon's expansion, which could validate its market opportunity and earnings stability, while advertising revenue may also benefit from a low base in the second half. LYFT needs to demonstrate improvement in North American organic ride growth and provide more information on the timelines for its Waymo and Baidu partnerships.

Analysis framework

The report combines company guidance, sell-side consensus expectations, credit card spending proxy data, passenger and driver app monthly active user data, order and gross bookings trends, unit economics, and margin models to make judgments, and builds quarterly earnings forecasts for each of the four companies. Valuation uses a combined approach with forward multiples and discounted cash flow each weighted 50%, while treating stock-based compensation as a cash cost.

Methodology notes

• Earnings forecastExpectations gap and momentum analysis

  Compare Bernstein forecasts, company guidance, and sell-side consensus expectations

  Assess the likelihood of results beating or missing expectations through differences in gross bookings, GOV, GTV, growth rates, adjusted EBITDA, and margins, and evaluate stock price reactions in light of the level of market expectations.

• Alternative dataApp activity and credit card data validation

  Use monthly active users and payment data to validate operating trends

  Passenger-side and driver-side app monthly active users are used to observe ride-hailing growth, while credit card data serve as a proxy indicator for DASH GOV growth, combined with app trends for DoorDash, Wolt, Deliveroo, and Uber for cross-validation.

• Valuation methodsCombination of relative valuation and discounted cash flow

  Forward valuation multiples and DCF each weighted 50%

  UBER uses 18x NTM P/FCF and DCF, DASH uses 25x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF, CART uses 10x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF, and LYFT uses 8x NTM EV/EBITDA and DCF. The corresponding WACCs are 12%, 11%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, and the perpetual growth rates are 3%, 3%, 3%, and 2%, respectively.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• UBER.US

  U.S. ride-hailing and delivery platform, rated Outperform

  Strengths

  Multi-business platform, partner ecosystem, and strong app activity; U.S. mobility trends are relatively strong, and AI is expected to improve cost efficiency.

  Weaknesses

  The U.S. mobility business remains the main exposure to autonomous driving disruption, and near-term share price catalysts depend on medium- to long-term earnings upgrades.

  Comparison

  Passenger-side and driver-side app performance is better than LYFT, and delivery app trends have also accelerated.

  Risks

  Autonomous driving price wars, driver classification regulation, delivery commission caps, rising insurance and driver costs, intense competition, and freight business expansion falling short of expectations.

• DASH.US

  Local delivery platform, rated Outperform

  Strengths

  GOV is growing rapidly, unit economics in international, grocery, and retail categories continue to improve, and its earnings upside potential is the highest among the four companies.

  Weaknesses

  The slowdown in first-quarter order growth has raised the market's validation threshold, while technology platform restructuring and long-term reinvestment may pressure near-term margins.

  Comparison

  DoorDash and Wolt app monthly active user growth has slowed slightly, while Deliveroo and Uber have accelerated; credit card proxy data show a modest improvement in the second quarter.

  Risks

  Order growth falling short of expectations, execution difficulties in new businesses and overseas expansion, competition from Amazon and other aggregator platforms, irrational subsidies, regulatory pressure, and high valuation expectations.

• CART.US

  Grocery delivery and advertising platform, rated Outperform

  Strengths

  GTV maintains double-digit growth, the importance of enterprise services and AI tools is increasing, and advertising revenue has potential to accelerate in the second half.

  Weaknesses

  Retail partner concentration is relatively high, and incremental margins may be difficult to improve meaningfully in the third quarter due to investment and comparison bases.

  Comparison

  Maintaining stable trends amid Amazon's expansion and competition from multi-category platforms will be a key validation of its market opportunity and earnings durability.

  Risks

  Retailers' in-house delivery taking share, partner losses or lower take rates, advertising channel conflicts, rising investment intensity, and consumer trade-down.

• LYFT.US

  North American ride-hailing platform, rated Market-Perform

  Strengths

  Average order value and demand from major July events provide support, and Waymo and Baidu partnerships may bring long-term optionality.

  Weaknesses

  Scale and app activity are weaker than UBER, North American organic ride growth remains around the mid-single digits, and the target price offers limited upside relative to the current price.

  Comparison

  UBER has better passenger-side and driver-side app trends and is expected to see growth accelerate during the year, putting LYFT under greater pressure to validate share trends.

  Risks

  Market share loss, persistently high driver incentives and insurance costs, uncertainty around the autonomous driving timeline, driver classification regulation, and price competition.

Key data

• DASH 2Q26 forecastMarketplace GOV approximately $33.28B; adjusted EBITDA approximately $857MGOV year-over-year growth including M&A impact is approximately 37.3%, while organic GOV year-over-year growth excluding Deliveroo is approximately 24%; organic order growth needs to accelerate to approximately 17% year over year to ease market concerns.
• DASH 3Q26 forecastMarketplace GOV approximately $33.65B; adjusted EBITDA approximately $984MCompounded GOV growth and unit economics improvement in international, grocery, and retail businesses are expected to offset rising technology platform restructuring costs.
• UBER 2Q26 forecastGross bookings approximately $57.36B; adjusted EBITDA approximately $2.79BMobility business growth at constant currency is approximately 19.5%, while delivery business growth is approximately 23.5%; AI's impact on hiring in the second half may improve fixed cost leverage.
• CART 2Q26 forecastGTV approximately $10.26B; year-over-year growth of 13%; adjusted EBITDA approximately $302MThird-quarter GTV growth is forecast at 12.5%, and Marketplace advertising revenue may accelerate in the second half due to a low base.
• LYFT 2Q26 forecastGross bookings approximately $5.39B; core business year-over-year growth of approximately 12%; adjusted EBITDA approximately $170MAverage order value continues to provide support, but North American organic ride growth remains the main point to watch.
• Target prices and ratingsUBER $110, DASH $270, CART $50, LYFT $16The first three are rated Outperform, while LYFT is rated Market-Perform; the rating horizon is the next 12 months.

Impact & implications

From a trading perspective, DASH has the highest potential for earnings upside, but market expectations are also high, and order growth and commentary on reinvestment will determine post-earnings sustainability. At UBER's current valuation, downside risk is relatively limited, but autonomous driving pricing, partner expansion, and upward earnings revisions for 2027–2028 are more important than a modest beat this quarter. If CART can maintain stable growth amid Amazon's expansion, it will increase market recognition of its long-term market opportunity, advertising business, and earnings durability. LYFT has limited valuation upside and needs improved ride growth, stable market share, and implementation of autonomous driving partnerships to achieve further re-rating.

Risks

• A deterioration in the macro environment or saturation of industry penetration could cause gross bookings, GOV, GTV, and order growth to fall below forecasts.
• If driver supply shortages are structural, they could damage the growth and profitability of ride-hailing businesses over the long term.
• Rising insurance, driver incentives, technology restructuring, and new business investment could cause operating leverage and EBITDA improvement to fall short of expectations.
• If autonomous taxis become a lower-cost substitute or trigger a price war, they could disrupt transaction volumes and profitability for traditional ride-hailing platforms.
• Changes in driver classification, delivery commission caps, and gig economy regulation could increase operating costs and trigger negative public opinion.
• Competition, subsidies, and irrational pricing from Amazon, Walmart, and other large platforms could lead to share losses or market exits.
• CART's retail partner concentration, expiration of exclusive agreements, and advertising channel conflicts could weaken take rates and the stability of partnerships.
• Market expectations for DASH's growth and margins are high, and any order growth or guidance shortfall could bring significant valuation pressure.

What to watch

• Whether DASH organic order growth can reach approximately 17% year over year, as well as third-quarter adjusted EBITDA and exit margin levels.
• DASH's technology platform restructuring progress, additional costs, and commentary related to 2027 EBITDA.
• UBER's U.S. mobility business growth, insurance cost pass-through, and second-half fixed cost leverage.
• UBER's autonomous driving launch cadence, partner expansion, and pricing strategy for Waymo's low-cost fleet.
• Whether UBER's 2027–2028 operating profit forecasts are raised, and the synergies after consolidation of the Getir acquisition.
• CART's GTV stability amid Amazon's expansion, contributions from enterprise and AI tools, and advertising revenue acceleration.
• CART's third-quarter incremental margin guidance and changes in retail partner relationships.
• LYFT's North American organic ride count, market share, and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
• The specific launch timelines for LYFT's partnerships with Waymo and Baidu.