Bernstein expects broadly solid 2Q26 results from UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT, but sees diverging narrative catalysts

Overview

This is a Bernstein preview of 2Q26 results for rideshare and delivery companies in the US emerging Internet sector, covering UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT. The report believes the sector has recently recovered, but the market environment remains challenging; 2Q26 results are expected to be broadly "quite good," although whether they can change the market narrative will depend on subsequent company guidance, margins, autonomous-driving progress, and growth momentum.

Core views

The core view is that delivery names are more likely to generate sustained post-earnings momentum because the market debate is more concentrated on GOV/GTV, order growth, advertising, and EBITDA; rideshare names, by contrast, still need to await autonomous-driving rollout, profit revisions, and greater clarity on the competitive landscape. Bernstein remains positive on UBER, DASH, and CART, and maintains a neutral view on LYFT.

Analysis framework

The report combines company operating models, sell-side consensus estimates, credit-card data, App engagement and MAU trends, company guidance ranges, and valuation methodologies to compare 2Q26 and 3Q26 Gross Bookings/GOV/GTV, Adjusted EBITDA, and margins, while assessing factors that could influence the market narrative after earnings releases.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods50/50 combination of NTM multiple and DCF

  Combination of relative valuation and discounted cash flow

  UBER, DASH, CART, and LYFT all use a methodology comprising 50% next-twelve-month valuation multiples and 50% DCF; the DCF incorporates WACC and a terminal growth rate, and treats SBC as a cash expense.

• Earnings previewComparison of company models and consensus estimates

  Expectation-gap analysis

  The report compares Bernstein forecasts with sell-side consensus estimates and company guidance ranges to assess upside or downside risks to results and investor focus areas.

• Alternative dataCredit-card data and App MAU trends

  Operating momentum tracking

  The report uses credit-card data as a proxy for DoorDash GOV growth and references MAU trends across rider, driver, and delivery Apps to assess changes in 2Q26 demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US.UBER

  Core covered name; rated Outperform

  Strengths

  Platform scale, dual growth from Mobility and Delivery, a partner ecosystem beyond Waymo, synergies with DHER, and potential AI-driven cost leverage could improve the earnings narrative.

  Weaknesses

  Market focus is driven by autonomous driving and transaction math, limiting the narrative impact of 2Q26 results themselves; US Mobility is sensitive to AV risks.

  Comparison

  Compared with LYFT, UBER is performing better in rider and driver App MAU trends, and has a more diversified business mix.

  Risks

  AV price wars, driver-classification regulation, delivery commission caps, insurance costs, intense competition, and weaker-than-expected Freight expansion.

• US.DASH

  Core covered name; rated Outperform

  Strengths

  Credit-card and App engagement data are generally stable, GOV estimates have been modestly raised, and improving international and Grocery & Retail unit economics should support EBITDA.

  Weaknesses

  After order growth slowed in 1Q26, the market needs to see organic growth reaccelerate; technology platform migration costs and reinvestment could pressure margins.

  Comparison

  Compared with rideshare names, DASH's post-earnings narrative is more directly driven by fundamental operating metrics.

  Risks

  Slowing growth, intensifying competition, pressure from large platforms such as Amazon, execution challenges in new overseas markets, regulation, and commission caps.

• US.CART

  Core covered name; rated Outperform

  Strengths

  GTV momentum is continuing, advertising revenue could accelerate in 2H26 due to a low base, and Enterprise and AI tools are becoming more important components of the growth algorithm.

  Weaknesses

  Incremental margin guidance for 3Q26 may show limited improvement due to the comparison base and investment spending.

  Comparison

  Compared with DASH, CART is more dependent on grocery-platform TAM, advertising revenue, and the durability of retail-partner relationships.

  Risks

  Amazon expansion, competition from retailers' 1P channels, concentration among major retail partners, expiration of exclusive agreements, advertising-channel conflicts, and consumer trade-down.

• US.LYFT

  Core covered name; rated Market-Perform

  Strengths

  AOV continues to support Gross Bookings, while July could see modest improvement from the World Cup and favorable insurance trends.

  Weaknesses

  North American organic rides growth remains the primary debate, while scale and competitive positioning are weaker than UBER's.

  Comparison

  Compared with UBER, LYFT is a smaller rideshare platform, and the market is more focused on whether its active-rider growth and market share remain stable.

  Risks

  Driver-supply shortages, insurance costs, regulation, price competition, uncertainty around the AV partnership timeline, and failure to realize operating leverage.

Key data

• UBER 2Q26 Gross Bookings$57.4BThe model assumes 19.5% Mobility FxN growth and approximately 23.5% Delivery growth.
• UBER 2Q26 Adj. EBITDA$2.79BThe report expects modest upside potential in 3Q26, with fixed-cost leverage in 2H potentially improving due to greater AI hiring efficiency.
• DASH 2Q26 GOV$33.3BImplies approximately 24% YoY organic ex-ROO growth; the market is focused on whether order growth can accelerate by at least approximately 1ppt to 17%.
• DASH 3Q26 Adj. EBITDA$984MThe report believes GOV compound growth and improving international and Grocery & Retail unit economics can offset the costs of the technology platform migration.
• CART 2Q26 GTV growth13% YoYThe report raises its 2Q26 and 3Q26 forecasts to 13% and 12.5%, respectively.
• LYFT 2Q26 Gross Bookings$5.39BCore Lyft growth is approximately 12% YoY, with Adj. EBITDA estimated at $170M.

Impact & implications

The implication for the sector is that near-term results are unlikely to become a broad negative catalyst, but stock performance will depend on whether the post-earnings narrative improves. DASH and CART depend more on delivering growth and margin improvements; UBER depends more on the AV partnership ecosystem, profit revisions, and Mobility trends; LYFT needs to demonstrate stable North American rides growth and market share.

Risks

• Rideshare and delivery penetration could approach saturation, or growth could slow amid macroeconomic headwinds.
• EBITDA improvement is central to the investment thesis for multiple companies, but market expectations are high; competition, driver supply, and insurance costs could pressure margins.
• If autonomous robo-taxis form a more economically attractive alternative, they could pose a structural threat to traditional rideshare platforms.
• Platforms face regulatory risks related to driver classification and delivery commission caps.
• Competition among delivery and grocery platforms is intense; Amazon, Walmart, Uber, DoorDash, and local competitors may compete for share through pricing, incentives, or subscription ecosystems.

What to watch

• UBER and DASH will report 2Q26 results on 2026-08-05; LYFT and CART will report after the close on 2026-08-06.
• Watch whether DASH order growth reaccelerates and whether 3Q26 EBITDA guidance indicates the pace of margin expansion.
• Watch UBER's commentary on US Mobility acceleration, insurance trends, the World Cup impact, the AV rollout path, and Waymo pricing.
• Watch CART GTV momentum, whether Marketplace ads accelerate in 2H26, and incremental margin guidance.
• Watch LYFT North American organic rides growth, active-rider trends, EBITDA guidance, and the timeline for Waymo/Baidu autonomous-driving partnerships.