China Autos & Shared Mobility / China EV weekly orders: China EV orders improved on launches, but underlying demand remained uneven

Overview

This weekly China EV order update concludes that September product launches lifted selected brands but did not produce a broad-based improvement in sector demand. Morgan Stanley retains an In-Line Asia Pacific industry view.

Core views

Morgan Stanley’s channel checks for September 7-13 indicate that the September product-cycle boost had begun to reach the market, but its benefits were narrow. Xiaomi and Geely Galaxy were the principal growth drivers because of new launches, whereas underlying demand excluding launch-driven models remained lukewarm. The firm notes that store traffic improved, yet the divergence between brands with launches and the rest of the market continued to widen. Xiaomi recorded estimated weekly orders of 50.5-51.0k, up 621% week on week, 721% month on month and 818% year on year. The N70/90 launch drove this increase, while SU7 and YU7 demand was broadly steady. Geely Galaxy recorded 29.6-30.1k orders, up 85% week on week, 79% month on month and 3% year on year, also supported by new-model launches. These results underpin the report’s conclusion that the strongest gains were launch-specific rather than sector-wide. BYD’s estimated orders were 71.6-72.1k, down 12% week on week, 1% month on month and 20% year on year. Ocean/Dynasty surrendered the previous week’s stability, and Morgan Stanley identifies resolving delivery bottlenecks as the top priority; Denza and FCB remained resilient. Leapmotor posted 18.7-19.2k orders, up 9% week on week, 6% month on month and 56% year on year, led by B- and C-series momentum; its A-series held an approximately 8k base while D softened. NIO recorded 8.5-8.7k orders, up 6% week on week and 20% year on year but down 9% month on month. The NIO brand led the weekly performance, Onvo improved from a low base, and Firefly was stable. Li Auto’s 10.6-10.8k orders were down 42% week on week but up 3% month on month and 28% year on year; Morgan Stanley attributes the weekly decline to comparison with a high base after the MEGA launch, rather than deteriorating demand. XPeng recorded 8.1-8.3k orders, down 2% week on week, 7% month on month and 23% year on year, with Mona demand weakening again. Tesla China posted 13.0-13.2k orders, up 63% week on week and 53% month on month, and flat year on year. Morgan Stanley views the strong quarter-end sales push as seasonal delivery dynamics rather than a product-led acceleration. HIMA’s headline orders declined 4% week on week and 12% month on month to 9.2-9.4k: Aito remained soft at 4.8k, down 11% week on week, while Stelato fell about 40% week on week to roughly 0.9k. Growth at SAIC Shangjie, at 1.9k and up 27% week on week and 36% month on month, partly offset these declines. Zeekr reached 5.3-5.5k orders, up 23% week on week and 152% year on year, though down 6% month on month.

Analysis framework

Morgan Stanley uses weekly channel feedback to estimate order ranges by brand and model family, then compares week-on-week, month-on-month and year-on-year changes. It separates launch-driven order gains and quarter-end delivery effects from underlying demand trends to assess whether the sector is improving broadly.

Methodology notes

• Other

  Weekly channel-feedback order tracking

  The report estimates weekly orders from channel feedback and compares the resulting ranges across brands and time periods to distinguish launch effects from broader demand conditions.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Launch-driven versus underlying demand analysis

  The report separates order momentum associated with new model launches from demand in established models, using this distinction to judge whether the improvement is broad-based.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD (1211.HK)

  Tracked China EV order performance

  Strengths

  Denza and FCB remained resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Ocean/Dynasty gave back the prior week’s steadiness.

  Comparison

  Orders of 71.6-72.1k remained larger than the other named brands in the update.

  Risks

  Delivery bottlenecks and supply constraints.

• Geely Galaxy (0175.HK)

  Launch-driven order beneficiary

  Strengths

  New-model launches drove 29.6-30.1k weekly orders and strong sequential growth.

  Comparison

  One of the key growth drivers alongside Xiaomi.

  Risks

  Order strength was specifically attributed to launches rather than broad sector recovery.

• NIO (9866.HK)

  Tracked China EV order performance

  Strengths

  The NIO brand drove weekly performance; Onvo improved from a low base and Firefly was stable.

  Weaknesses

  Orders were down 9% month on month.

  Comparison

  Weekly orders were below BYD, Geely Galaxy, Xiaomi and Leapmotor.

• Li Auto (2015.HK)

  Tracked China EV order performance

  Strengths

  Orders were up 3% month on month and 28% year on year.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly orders declined 42% after a high base following the MEGA launch.

  Comparison

  The weekly decline was attributed to a launch-base effect rather than weaker demand.

• XPeng (9868.HK)

  Tracked China EV order performance

  Weaknesses

  Mona demand weakened again; orders declined week on week, month on month and year on year.

  Comparison

  Its order trend lagged launch-driven Xiaomi and Geely Galaxy.

  Risks

  Further weakness in Mona demand.

• Xiaomi (1810.HK)

  Launch-driven order beneficiary

  Strengths

  N70/90 drove estimated orders of 50.5-51.0k.

  Weaknesses

  SU7 and YU7 were largely steady rather than contributing to the surge.

  Comparison

  A key growth driver alongside Geely Galaxy.

  Risks

  Order surge was concentrated in the new N70/90 launch.

Key data

• BYD weekly orders71.6-72.1k-12% WoW, -1% MoM and -20% YoY; Ocean/Dynasty softened amid delivery constraints.
• Geely Galaxy weekly orders29.6-30.1k+85% WoW, +79% MoM and +3% YoY, supported by new-model launches.
• Xiaomi weekly orders50.5-51.0k+621% WoW, +721% MoM and +818% YoY, mainly driven by N70/90.
• Tesla China weekly orders13.0-13.2k+63% WoW, +53% MoM and flat YoY; viewed as a quarter-end seasonal delivery push.
• Li Auto weekly orders10.6-10.8k-42% WoW, +3% MoM and +28% YoY; the weekly decline followed a high base after the MEGA launch.
• XPeng weekly orders8.1-8.3k-2% WoW, -7% MoM and -23% YoY; Mona demand weakened again.

Impact & implications

The report argues that improving traffic and selected launch successes should not be read as evidence of a broad China EV demand recovery. Sector order momentum remained highly dependent on launches, while supply constraints and softer demand at several established brands continued to create uneven outcomes.

Risks

• BYD faces supply constraints and a delivery bottleneck.
• XPeng’s Mona demand weakened again.
• HIMA’s Aito and Stelato experienced weekly order declines.

What to watch

• Whether BYD can resolve its delivery bottleneck.
• Whether launch-led gains at Xiaomi and Geely Galaxy broaden into wider sector demand.
• Tesla China’s order trend after the quarter-end delivery period.
• Demand trends for XPeng Mona and HIMA’s Aito and Stelato models.