Post-holiday China EV orders broadly rolled back, and model cycles widened OEM divergence

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley’s Asia Pacific/China electric-vehicle weekly order industry tracking. The core conclusion is that after the extended holiday, major EV manufacturers saw orders decline sharply, with overall rhythm similar to last year, but order resilience differed significantly across automakers, and model cycles are the main explanatory factor. The report also notes that a dense rollout of flagship SUVs in the remaining period of May will become the investment focus.

Core views

The report argues that the post-holiday sales decline itself is not surprising; the key is the differences in decline magnitude and model-pace among different OEMs. Tesla China, Li Auto and NIO were relatively more resilient because they had a lower comparison base and lacked new-model noise; Geely Galaxy, HIMA/Aito and Xiaomi showed more pronounced pullback after earlier model and brand traffic peaks; XPeng declined week-on-week but market focus remains on new models such as L03/L05.

Analysis framework

The report is based on channel-feedback statistics for major Chinese EV brands’ weekly orders during May 4-6, and uses week-on-week, month-over-month and year-on-year changes to measure post-holiday order strength, then combines new model launches, flagship SUV release cadence and prior high base to explain OEM divergence.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingWeekly channel order tracking

  Track short-cycle order changes through channel feedback

  This approach uses weekly order ranges with WoW, MoM and YoY changes to quickly gauge demand momentum, but the data come from channel feedback and are suitable for tracking trends and dispersion, not equivalent to final deliveries or financial revenue.

• Cycle analysisModel-cycle analysis

  Use new-model launches and prior model high base to explain order changes

  The report attributes order divergence mainly to model cycles, including expectations for new flagship SUV launches, order peaks from earlier hit models, and relative resilience when there is less disturbance from new models.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Geely Automobile Holdings / Geely Galaxy (0175.HK)

  China EV order-tracking sample; in the disclosed coverage table, Geely Automobile Holdings is rated Overweight.

  Strengths

  Orders remain at a scale of 18.9-19.4k, with MoM at +10%.

  Weaknesses

  WoW -46% and YoY -21%, showing a pronounced post-holiday pullback from the prior high.

  Comparison

  Compared with Tesla China and Leapmotor, Geely Galaxy has a larger week-on-week decline.

  Risks

  If normalization after the post-M7 peak happens too quickly, it may affect the market’s view of short-term demand persistence.

• XPeng Inc. (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  A key EV manufacturer; the disclosed coverage table rates XPeng Inc. as Overweight.

  Strengths

  Market focus on L03/L05, and the next model cycle could become a catalyst.

  Weaknesses

  Orders of 6.4-6.6k, with WoW -21%, MoM -40%, YoY -12%.

  Comparison

  The week-on-week decline is smaller than that of Geely Galaxy, HIMA/Aito and Xiaomi, but YoY remains negative.

  Risks

  If attention on new models does not convert into orders, valuation and growth expectations may come under pressure.

• Tesla China

  A major competitor in the China EV market and a demand barometer.

  Strengths

  Orders of 12.0-12.2k, with WoW +9%, MoM +12%, YoY +33%, showing notably strong resilience.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide more granular model mix or pricing strategy information.

  Comparison

  Within the disclosed sample, Tesla China is one of the few brands with positive week-on-week growth.

  Risks

  Increased competition, pricing shifts, or changes in model-refresh cadence could affect order sustainability.

• Xiaomi (1810.HK)

  A consumer-electronics and smart-vehicle-related name newly entering EV business.

  Strengths

  Orders of 7.5-7.7k, YoY +24%, with SU7 contributing 65-70% of order inflow.

  Weaknesses

  WoW -44% and MoM -20%, indicating a clear post-holiday pullback.

  Comparison

  Order momentum is weaker than Tesla China in the short term, but still shows YoY growth.

  Risks

  Orders are heavily dependent on SU7 inflows; model supply, delivery cadence and demand persistence need close monitoring.

• NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  A China EV manufacturer; the main text states NIO’s order trend is relatively resilient, and NIO Inc. is rated Overweight in the coverage table.

  Strengths

  The report states that its post-holiday weekly orders are relatively more resilient.

  Weaknesses

  The main text does not disclose a specific weekly order range.

  Comparison

  NIO is grouped with Tesla China and Li Auto as players with comparatively stronger resilience.

  Risks

  Lack of detailed weekly order data in this report means follow-up disclosures or channel updates are needed for validation.

Key data

• Geely Galaxy (0175.HK) weekly orders18.9-19.4kWoW -46%, MoM +10%, YoY -21%; returned to normal from the order peak after M7.
• XPeng (9868.HK/XPEV.N) weekly orders6.4-6.6kWoW -21%, MoM -40%, YoY -12%; market focus on L03/L05.
• Leapmotor weekly orders18.4-18.6kWoW -23%, MoM +48%, YoY +67%.
• Tesla China weekly orders12.0-12.2kWoW +9%, MoM +12%, YoY +33%; relatively more resilient than most automakers.
• HIMA weekly orders11.1-11.3kWoW -52%, MoM +45%.
• Aito weekly orders7.0-7.2kWoW -51%, MoM +41%, YoY -43%.
• Xiaomi (1810.HK) weekly orders7.5-7.7kWoW -44%, MoM -20%, YoY +24%; SU7 accounted for 65-70% of order inflow.

Impact & implications

For investors, in the short term, one should not focus only on post-holiday week-on-week order pullback; it is important to assess whether the pullback exceeds seasonal patterns, which brands can maintain resilience at low bases or during new-car windows, and whether May flagship SUV launches can deliver incremental orders. At the industry level, model cycles and product cadence remain the main drivers of relative performance among China EV shares.

Risks

• Channel-feedback data may differ from final deliveries, retail sales, or financial revenue.
• Post-holiday order pullbacks may include both seasonal effects and genuine demand weakening and should be tracked continuously.
• Model cycles have a large impact on orders; new-model launch pace, acceptance and delivery execution can alter short-term trends.
• The report discloses that Morgan Stanley has investment banking, shareholding, or other potential business ties with several covered companies; investors should note conflict-of-interest disclosures.
• U.S. executive orders, export controls and jurisdictional regulatory limits may affect eligibility for trading certain securities or investing.

What to watch

• Flagship SUV launches and order conversion over the remaining period of May.
• Whether the relative order resilience of Tesla China, Li Auto and NIO can be sustained.
• Subsequent order inflow changes for XPeng’s L03/L05, Geely-related models and Xiaomi’s SU7.
• Whether the post-holiday week-on-week order decline reverts to normal seasonal levels in coming weeks.
• The validation relationship between weekly orders and subsequent monthly sales and delivery volumes.