New vehicle models are driving order differentiation, with XPeng and Geely delivering standout performance.

Overview

Morgan Stanley’s latest China EV weekly order report indicates that, during the week of May 18–24, 2026, order volumes across brands experienced significant volatility, driven by the new‑vehicle launch cycle. Although overall market demand remains subdued and most incumbent mainstream models posted sequential declines, the introduction of new models has emerged as a key driver of performance. Among them, XPeng and Geely (including Zeekr) stood out with strong showings following their new‑model launches, while BYD and Leapmotor maintained relatively stable momentum. Investors are currently closely monitoring the rollout of flagship SUVs and June production‑ramp guidance, but should remain cautious, as market sentiment may weaken with the onset of the traditional June lull.

Core views

The impact of new models has been pronounced, with leading automakers showing mixed performance. This week, XPeng Motors stood out, posting weekly orders of 29,000–29,200 vehicles—up 375% quarter-over-quarter and 319% year-over-year—largely driven by GX model sales that exceeded expectations. Geely’s Galaxy series also delivered strong results, with weekly orders at 26,100–26,600 vehicles, up 83% month-over-month and 24% year-over-year, signaling rapid market traction for the Starshine 7. Zeekr recorded weekly orders of 92,000–94,000 vehicles, a 26% increase from the prior week and a robust 179% year-over-year surge. Mature brands are facing either a return to normalcy or growth bottlenecks. By contrast, Li Auto and NIO—whose sales had surged following recent new‑model launches—experienced a noticeable pullback this week. Li Auto reported 87,000–89,000 weekly orders, down 40% month-over-month; analysts attribute this to a natural normalization after the initial sales peak of the L9 Livis. NIO’s weekly orders fell to 97,000–99,000, also down 40% month-over-month, as market attention shifts to the upcoming ES9 model. Meanwhile, BYD, the industry leader, posted 56,600–57,100 weekly orders—up 11% month-over-month but still down 26% year-over-year, with a further 15% decline on a monthly basis—suggesting a temporary slowdown in growth momentum. The market is now awaiting the May 28 smart‑technology launch event and the order inflow from second‑generation blade‑battery models (such as the Yuan Plus and Qin Max) to rekindle confidence. Other brand updates and market outlook. Leapmotor maintained resilience, with weekly orders of 14,200–14,400 vehicles—up 7% month-over-month and 63% year-over-year. Tesla China reported 10,000–10,200 weekly orders, down 9% month-over-month and 26% year-over-year. HIMA’s weekly orders stood at 10,700–10,900, a sharp 48% drop month-over-month but a 36% increase on a monthly basis. AITO’s weekly orders were 54,000–56,000, down 7% month-over-month, as the market focuses on the M9 model set to debut on May 27. Xiaomi’s automotive division logged 80,000–82,000 weekly orders, essentially unchanged month-over-month but down 18% on a monthly basis, though still up 78% year-over-year. The report notes that, as June approaches and the traditional automotive sales lull sets in, overall market sentiment may soften further.

Analysis framework

Institutional investors employ a high-frequency, channel‑level feedback data‑tracking approach, gathering weekly order data from distributors to monitor real‑time shifts in end‑consumer demand. This methodology provides a more accurate reflection of genuine consumer preferences and immediate market reactions than monthly wholesale sales figures. From an analytical perspective, the report attributes order volatility to the key driver of “product lifecycle.” In the highly competitive electric‑vehicle market, individual models tend to lose their appeal relatively quickly; consequently, the cadence of new‑model launches—referred to as the “launch cycle”—emerges as a decisive factor influencing short‑term sales performance. By comparing week‑over‑week (WoW), month‑over‑month (MoM), and year‑over‑year (YoY) trends, the analysis distinguishes between “seasonal/cyclical fluctuations” and “structural growth or decline.” For instance, the sharp YoY and MoM declines at Li Auto and NIO are interpreted as a return to baseline following the fading impact of new‑model effects, rather than a deterioration in underlying fundamentals, whereas Xpeng’s substantial YoY surge is viewed as a clear signal of successful product launches. This analytical framework enables investors to filter out noise and pinpoint alpha‑driven opportunities that stem directly from product strength.

Methodology notes

• Industry/ Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-and-Demand Framework

  High-Frequency Order Tracking and Product Cycle Analysis

  In the automotive sector, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, rapid product cycles mean that short-term demand is highly sensitive to the availability of new models. Institutions leverage weekly order data—high-frequency indicators—to track demand fluctuations triggered by new‑model launches (supply‑side shifts), thereby assessing the near-term market sentiment across different brands.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng Motors (9868.HK/XPEV.US)

  Benefit: Sales of the new GX model have exceeded expectations, with orders surging 375% month-over-month.

  Strengths

  The new product cycle is robust, with strong market acceptance.

  Comparison

  This week, it delivered the strongest performance, significantly outpacing the industry average growth rate.

  Risks

  Can subsequent models continue to sustain strong market momentum?

• Geely Automobile (0175.HK)

  Benefit: The Galaxy Series Starshine 7 drove a month-over-month order growth of 83%.

  Strengths

  The multi-brand strategy is delivering results, and the transition to new energy is accelerating.

  Comparison

  Outperforms most traditional automakers’ transformation brands.

  Risks

  Market competition is intense, necessitating continued investment in R&D.

• BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Neutral with a slight bias toward downside: Orders declined 26% year on year; awaiting new catalysts.

  Strengths

  Economies of scale and a pipeline of second-generation blade battery technologies

  Weaknesses

  Current flagship models are experiencing sluggish growth, with year-on-year declines.

  Comparison

  Growth has lagged behind some new EV brands, but the base is large.

  Risks

  The smart technology launch event fell short of expectations.

• Li Auto (2015.HK/LI.US)

  Neutral: Orders declined 40% month over month, reflecting a normalization‑adjusted correction.

  Strengths

  Clear brand positioning and a strong base of household users.

  Weaknesses

  Dependence on single blockbuster products, with significant sales volatility during new-product transition periods.

  Comparison

  The pullback has been relatively substantial; further monitoring of subsequent stabilization is required.

  Risks

  Competitive pressure from rivals in the same price segment

• NIO (9866.HK/NIO.US)

  Neutral: Orders declined 40% month-over-month; expectations for ES9.

  Strengths

  A well-established service system and a premium brand image.

  Weaknesses

  Declining appeal of older models and a lull period ahead of new model launches.

  Comparison

  Similar to Li Auto, it is in the transition phase of its product cycle.

  Risks

  Order conversion following the release of ES9 fell short of expectations.

Key data

• Xpeng Motors weekly order volume29,000–29,200 vehiclesMonth-over-month growth of 375%, year-over-year growth of 319%, with GX model sales exceeding expectations.
• Geely Galaxy Weekly Orders26,100–26,600 vehiclesMonth-over-month growth of 83%, year-over-year growth of 24%; Starshine 7 has gained market recognition.
• BYD Weekly Orders56,600–57,100 vehiclesMonth-over-month +11%, year-over-year -26%; awaiting catalyst from the new technology launch event.
• Li Auto’s weekly order volume87,000–89,000 vehiclesA month-over-month decline of 40%, reflecting a typical post‑new‑car‑launch correction.
• NIO weekly order volume97,000–99,000 vehiclesMonth-over-month decline of 40%; market attention focused on the launch of ES9.

Impact & implications

The report indicates that competition in China’s electric-vehicle market has entered a “product‑centric” phase, where brand premiums alone can no longer sustain high growth. Instead, sustained, competitively positioned new‑model launches are essential to drive demand. For investors, this means closely monitoring automakers’ new‑car launch schedules and early order‑book feedback, as these serve as the primary catalysts for near‑term stock‑price volatility. At the same time, subdued overall demand and the approaching off‑season suggest that sector‑wide beta remains under pressure; therefore, stock selection should prioritize companies with robust new‑product cycles—such as XPeng and Geely—while exercising caution toward brands lacking fresh catalysts or operating in product‑pipeline gaps.

Risks

• The traditionally slow sales season for conventional vehicles in June further dampened overall market sentiment.
• The macroeconomic environment is exerting downward pressure on demand for mass-consumption goods.
• Intensified price wars have eroded automakers’ profit margins.

What to watch

• May 28: BYD’s Smart Technology Launch Event and Subsequent Order Inflows
• May 27: Launch of NIO’s ES9 and AITO’s M9, along with market reception
• June production capacity ramp-up guidance and actual delivery data for each automaker
• The sustained sales momentum of the XPeng G9 and other new models