China EV Weekly Orders: Selective Highlights Amid a Summer Slowdown

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley's weekly order update for China Autos and Shared Mobility, tracking weekly channel-order feedback from major automakers for the period June 29 to July 5. The core call is that after July enters the traditional sales off-season, overall orders and showroom traffic are expected to weaken and consolidate, and industry sales may remain seasonally weak until the next cycle of new product launches begins in August. However, a few automakers still have localized bright spots supported by new models or brand momentum.

Core views

The report emphasizes that the market is "broadly soft, but structurally mixed." BYD, Luxeed, Tesla China, and Geely Group’s Galaxy/ZEEKR stood out in weekly order performance last week; BYD was lifted by the Seal 08 launch with year-over-year and month-over-month order increases. Geely Galaxy orders improved MoM, and the upcoming launch of the Galaxy Battleship 7OO could keep attention elevated. XPeng remains weak on YoY and MoM, but MONA L03 generated a visible improvement in showroom foot traffic and strong pre-order momentum before the July 16 launch. By contrast, Li Auto orders normalized after the L8 launch, while NIO was affected by slower ONVO sales and pre-order caution before the ES8 5-seater launch, leading to more pronounced order pullback.

Analysis framework

The report uses weekly channel-order data, presents order ranges by brand or automaker, and compares WoW, MoM, and YoY changes to assess seasonal demand, model launch timing, and relative momentum across brands.

Methodology notes

• Industry TrackingWeekly Order Channel Feedback

  Measures short-term demand momentum over the period from June 29 to July 5 using weekly order intervals from dealers/channels.

  This method is suitable for capturing short-term shifts from new-product launches, low-season foot traffic, and order normalization, but orders are not equivalent to final deliveries or revenue recognition.

• Relative Performance AssessmentWoW/MoM/YoY comparison

  Compares weekly order trends across automakers using week-over-week, month-over-month, and year-over-year changes.

  WoW reflects short-term momentum, MoM reflects near-term trend continuation, and YoY reflects brand or model-cycle changes versus the same period last year.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD Company Limited (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Core beneficiary; standout order performance

  Strengths

  The Seal 08 launch lifted weekly orders to 90.9k-91.4k, with growth across WoW, MoM, and YoY.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide subsequent continuity confirmation, and the order strength may be influenced by the launch effect.

  Comparison

  Compared with most new-vehicle entrants, BYD had the strongest weekly order growth and the largest scale this week.

  Risks

  Summer foot-traffic pullback, fading model enthusiasm, and industry price competition.

• Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) / Geely Galaxy / ZEEKR

  Selective bright spot; linked to the product cycle

  Strengths

  Geely Galaxy weekly WoW and MoM improved; ZEEKR’s YoY growth was 83%, and the five-seat 9X is about to start sales.

  Weaknesses

  Galaxy orders are still down 13% YoY, and monthly persistence still needs to be monitored.

  Comparison

  Compared with Li Auto, NIO, and XPeng, Geely’s ecosystem shows greater short-term order resilience.

  Risks

  New-model launch timing slower than expected, demand diversion to competing models, and weak seasonal demand.

• Li Auto Inc. (2015.HK/LI.O)

  Order normalization watchlist

  Strengths

  Still maintains a weekly order scale of 7.3k-7.5k.

  Weaknesses

  WoW declined 36% and YoY declined 23%, with orders normalizing after the L8 launch.

  Comparison

  Weekly momentum this week is weaker than BYD and the Geely system.

  Risks

  Order decline after new-product launch, intensified competition in family SUVs, and weak summer traffic.

• NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  Watchlist for order deceleration

  Strengths

  YoY is still up 104%.

  Weaknesses

  MoM fell 63%; ONVO sales slowed, and orders weakened before the ES8 five-seat launch.

  Comparison

  YoY improved but short-term MoM momentum remains weaker than the main upside names.

  Risks

  ONVO expansion below expectations, demand caution during model transition, and order volatility.

• XPeng Inc. (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  Watchlist for new-product catalyst

  Strengths

  Showroom traffic improved significantly after MONA L03 exposure, with solid pre-orders in the first weekend.

  Weaknesses

  YoY down 77% and MoM down 53%, with a weak current base.

  Comparison

  Short-term data are weaker than BYD and Geely, but product-cycle sensitivity from the new model is worth watching.

  Risks

  Conversion below expectations after the official MONA L03 launch, pricing competition, and delayed order recovery.

• Tesla China

  One of the weekly order bright spots

  Strengths

  Both WoW and MoM orders rose 16%.

  Weaknesses

  YoY declined 35%, and the reported order interval may contain recognition noise.

  Comparison

  Short-term MoM improved, but YoY remains weak.

  Risks

  Rising competition, product-cycle aging, and pricing strategy shifts.

Key data

• BYD Weekly Orders90.9-91.4k+25% WoW, +26% MoM, +17% YoY; driven by the Seal 08 launch.
• Geely Galaxy Weekly Orders18.7-19.2k+10% WoW, +6% MoM, -13% YoY; Galaxy Battleship 7OO is expected to launch in late July.
• Li Auto Weekly Orders7.3-7.5k-36% WoW, -2% MoM, -23% YoY; orders normalized after the L8 launch.
• NIO Weekly Orders11.2-11.4k-14% WoW, -63% MoM, +104% YoY; ONVO sales slowed, and demand weakened before the July 9 launch of the five-seat ES8.
• XPeng Weekly Orders6.7-6.9k+2% WoW, -53% MoM, -77% YoY; close monitoring of order conversion after the July 16 MONA L03 launch.
• Leapmotor Weekly Orders15.1-15.3k-21% WoW, +7% MoM, +68% YoY.
• Tesla China Weekly Orders1-11.2k+16% WoW, +16% MoM, -35% YoY; OCR may contain recognition noise in the reported interval.
• HIMA Weekly Orders13.8-14.3k-10% WoW, -43% MoM.
• Aito Weekly Orders8.0-8.2k-19% WoW, -57% MoM, +7% YoY.
• ZEEKR Weekly Orders6.4-6.6k+12% WoW, -15% MoM, +83% YoY; the 9X five-seater sales launch started on July 8.
• Xiaomi Weekly Orders6.5-6.7kThe original text shows -7 WoW, -28% MoM, -92% YoY, where the WoW field may be missing a percent sign or include recognition noise.

Impact & implications

In the short term, entering the summer off-season means overall demand and foot traffic are likely to be pressured, and investment judgment should focus more on cross-brand dispersion and new-model catalysts rather than extrapolating late-June performance. BYD, Geely, Tesla China, and ZEEKR show stronger order resilience, while XPeng remains dependent on post-launch conversion after MONA L03. If the August product cycle starts as expected, industry orders may regain catalyst support; if conversion is weak, the soft-season weakness could persist.

Risks

• The July off-season may continue to push down overall orders and showroom traffic.
• Weekly orders are based on channel feedback and may differ from final deliveries, revenue recognition, or official orders.
• Order spikes driven by new-model launches may not be sustainable.
• Industry price competition and promotions may compress profitability.
• Some text contains OCR recognition noise, such as Tesla China order intervals and Xiaomi WoW data; these should be cross-checked against the original report.
• Morgan Stanley may have business ties or potential conflicts of interest with some covered companies; investors should make independent judgments.

What to watch

• Whether the next wave of new-model launches in August can drive a rebound in industry orders.
• Order conversion and delivery pace for XPeng MONA L03 after its official July 16 launch.
• Demand reaction after Geely Galaxy Battleship 7OO launches in late July.
• Order performance after the July 8 sales start of the ZEEKR five-seat 9X.
• Whether NIO's ES8 five-seat launch on July 9 can improve order trends.
• Whether the incremental orders from BYD Seal 08 can be sustained.