China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Orders Miss Expectations

Overview

This report is Citi's weekly tracking of NEV orders for Chinese auto manufacturers. Its core conclusion is that EV orders in the week of June 22-28 were weaker than expected. Based on a dealer survey, the report observed that overall orders fell 17% MoM and that MTD orders were broadly flat MoM, below the historical pace of typically more than 10% MoM growth.

Core views

Citi believes that China's NEV order momentum was weak in late June, with the industry as a whole failing to sustain historical seasonality or the typical improvement in momentum during the month. At the brand level, BYD, Geely Galaxy, and Nio outperformed relatively, with BYD showing the clearest benefit from the launch of Great Tang. Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, Zeekr, and Huawei Harmony all lagged, indicating that differences in the competitive landscape and new-product catalysts are widening.

Analysis framework

The report primarily uses weekly order data from a dealer survey, assessing industry demand strength and brand divergence through WoW changes, MTD MoM changes, and estimates of potential retail sales.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingDealer order survey

  Weekly order change MoM

  Dealer checks were used to observe changes in EV orders during June 22-28, with MoM order changes measuring short-term demand momentum.

• Sales scenario estimationOrder-to-retail mapping

  Assumption that MoM orders and retail sales move in line

  The report assumes that if the final MoM order trend matches retail growth, June NEV retail sales will be flat MoM, implying June EV retail sales of approximately 915,000 units.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Auto Manufacturers

  Industry coverage universe

  Strengths

  The NEV market is large, and some brands can still achieve strong order growth driven by new-product launches.

  Weaknesses

  Overall orders fell MoM in late June, while MTD orders were only broadly flat MoM, below the historical pace.

  Comparison

  BYD, Geely Galaxy, and Nio outperformed relatively; Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, Zeekr, and Huawei Harmony underperformed.

  Risks

  Weak orders may flow through to retail sales, inventory pressure, price competition, and downward revisions to earnings expectations.

• BYD

  Brand highlighted as an outperformer

  Strengths

  MTD orders rose 53% MoM, driven by the launch of Great Tang.

  Weaknesses

  The report provided no further evidence on margins or inventory.

  Comparison

  It performed the strongest among the brands listed in the report.

  Risks

  Risks include the sustainability of the new-product catalyst and weakening overall industry demand.

• Geely Galaxy

  Brand highlighted as an outperformer

  Strengths

  MTD orders rose 23% MoM.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not disclose further model or channel details.

  Comparison

  It performed second only to BYD and better than most peers.

  Risks

  Whether order growth can translate into stable retail sales remains to be seen.

• Nio

  Brand highlighted as a relative outperformer

  Strengths

  MTD orders rose 6% MoM, including ONVO.

  Weaknesses

  The increase was significantly lower than that of BYD and Geely Galaxy.

  Comparison

  It still performed better than several brands with MoM declines.

  Risks

  Order growth was modest, indicating limited strength in demand recovery.

Key data

• Overall EV orders, June 22-28-17% WoWThe report said overall EV orders fell 17% MoM in the fourth week of June, weaker than expected.
• MTD EV ordersMoM flattishMTD orders were broadly flat MoM, weaker than the historical pace of typically more than 10% MoM growth.
• BYD MTD orders+53% MTD MoMBYD outperformed the industry, driven by the launch of Great Tang.
• Geely Galaxy MTD orders+23% MoMIt performed well among the major brands.
• Nio MTD orders+6% MoMThe report's definition includes ONVO.
• Underperforming brands' MTD ordersLeapmotor -9%, Xiaomi -15%, Li Auto -29%, Xpeng -31%, Zeekr -42%, Huawei Harmony -48%The MTD MoM trends of these brands were all weaker than the industry.
• Estimated June EV retail sales915k unitsBased on the assumption of 0% MoM NEV retail sales growth in June.
• Estimated June NEV retail sales YoY-17.6% YoYThe report also gave a June 2026 YoY figure of -15.8%.

Impact & implications

In the near term, weaker-than-expected orders may weigh on market views regarding the recovery of China's NEV demand and heighten focus on industry price competition, brand divergence, and the effectiveness of new-product cycles. The relative strength of BYD and Geely Galaxy suggests that new launches and product portfolios can still provide structural support, but order declines at several emerging EV and smart-car brands indicate that overall industry demand remains uneven.

Risks

• Dealer survey orders may differ from final retail sales.
• Weak orders in late June may indicate that industry demand is below market expectations.
• Intensifying price competition or promotions may affect automakers' profitability.
• New-product catalysts may prove difficult to sustain, causing order momentum to decline.
• The disclosed data are concentrated primarily at the order level, with limited detailed validation of margins, inventory, and delivery completion.

What to watch

• Whether final June NEV retail sales approach 915,000 units.
• Whether MoM order growth remains weaker than the historical pace of more than 10% MoM growth.
• Whether the order boost following the launch of BYD Great Tang proves sustainable.
• Whether the relative strength of Geely Galaxy and Nio continues into retail deliveries.
• Whether Leapmotor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng, Zeekr, and Huawei Harmony show order recovery.
• Changes in industry price competition, inventory, and promotional intensity.