Semiconductor packaging industry Report Interpretation

Overview

This semiconductor-packaging industry update combines July Japanese production data with TSMC's advanced-package roadmap. Nomura sees record current substrate shipments alongside a longer-term shift toward larger and more complex multilayer substrates, although monthly pricing was affected by product mix.

Core views

Japanese monthly production statistics showed continued strength in packaging substrates. July shipments of rigid module substrates rose 68% year on year to a record ¥31.3bn, exceeding the previous high reached in June. Shipment volume rose 19% year on year and average price per square metre increased 41% year on year to ¥1.312mn, though this was below June's record ¥1.429mn. Nomura links the month-on-month price decline to a change in product mix: Ibiden prioritized package substrates for server CPUs using Arm cores over GPUs during July-September at customer request, reducing Rubin shipments while Vera shipments increased. Ibiden said it would resume increasing Rubin substrate production from October-December or later. At Semicon Taiwan, TSMC updated its roadmap for advanced packages. Nomura describes a progression from Blackwell-generation packages using 3.3x-reticle interposers and 72×78mm single-core-layer substrates, to Rubin-generation packages using 5-9x-reticle interposers and 85×110mm substrates with one or potentially two core layers. Based on GPU and HBM die sizes, the report expects Rubin systems to commonly use two GPU dies and eight HBMs. For Feynman, it expects larger interposers and substrates, with four GPU dies and 12 HBMs becoming mainstream. The roadmap's further-out designs call for interposers larger than those specified for Feynman and substrates of at least 150×239mm, using multilayer or next-generation glass-core substrates. Nomura expects full-fledged adoption of multilayer-core substrates in 2028 or later. It views the move to two-layer cores as a way to increase substrate strength, wiring routes and power-delivery capability. The report illustrates this with possible embedding of capacitors, inductors and integrated voltage-regulator circuitry within the package substrate. It expects advanced packaging to expand beyond wiring into power-supply and heat-dissipation functions; iVR could begin to be used in some areas in 2027-28, creating demand for multilayer cores and for drills used to embed glass cloth and components. A key execution question is whether CoWoS-L or CoPoS can scale to 9x-reticle-size or larger formats and achieve stable mass production by the second half of 2028, when Feynman is expected to be released.

Analysis framework

Nomura first uses Japan's Current Survey of Production to assess shipment value, volume and price trends in packaging substrates, then explains the monthly price movement through product mix and customer-driven production priorities. It next interprets TSMC's advanced-package roadmap alongside published GPU specifications to infer likely package configurations, substrate requirements and the resulting demand for multilayer-core materials and equipment.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Packaging-substrate shipment, volume, pricing and product-mix analysis

  The report uses production statistics to separate shipment value, physical volume and price per square metre, then links the pricing change to the mix of Rubin and Vera substrate shipments.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Advanced-package roadmap translated into substrate and equipment demand

  Nomura traces larger AI-package designs and additional power-delivery functions through to demand for larger multilayer substrates, embedded components and related drilling equipment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ibiden [4062]

  A referenced packaging-substrate producer whose July-September production priority shifted toward server-CPU substrates rather than GPU substrates.

  Strengths

  The report cites its role in supplying package substrates and its planned resumption of Rubin substrate production increases from October-December or later.

  Weaknesses

  Its July product mix reduced Rubin shipments while Vera shipments increased.

Key data

• July packaging-substrate shipments¥31.3bnUp 68% year on year and above the prior record set in June.
• July shipment volume19% y-yIncrease on a square-metre basis.
• July average price per square metre¥1.312mnUp 41% year on year but below June's record ¥1.429mn.
• Rubin substrate size85×110mmAssociated with 5-9x-reticle-size interposers and one or potentially two core layers.
• Feynman substrate size120×128mmAssociated with 9-14x-reticle-size interposers and multiple core layers.
• Subsequent-generation substrate size150×239mm or greaterTSMC draft plans indicate multilayer or next-generation glass-core substrates.

Impact & implications

Nomura's analysis indicates that current substrate demand remains strong, while future AI-package generations could raise substrate complexity as well as size. The report expects the transition to multilayer cores, package-level power delivery and potentially iVR functions to broaden demand for relevant substrate materials and drilling equipment.

What to watch

• Whether CoWoS-L or CoPoS can scale to 9x-reticle-size or larger and be stably mass produced by the second half of 2028.
• The timing of Ibiden's planned increase in Rubin package-substrate production from October-December or later.
• Progress toward iVR use in some advanced-package applications during 2027-28.