Advanced Packaging Substrate Shipment Value Up 98% YoY; Supply-Demand Tightness May Persist for Two to Three Years

Overview

Nomura's tracking of Japan's monthly packaging-related statistics indicates that shipment value and unit-area prices for rigid module packaging substrates both reached records in June 2026. The report believes that rising demand for AI data center-related processors and networking equipment, combined with manufacturing difficulty and yield pressure for high-end large-format substrates, is pushing advanced packaging substrates into a sustained period of tightness.

Core views

This growth cycle is driven mainly by higher prices per square meter, rather than solely by expansion in shipment area. On the supply side, the number of factories capable of producing advanced packaging products is limited; on the demand side, server CPUs, network switches, GPUs, AI accelerators, and custom ASICs are all increasing demand for high-end substrates. Nomura judges that the current tightness differs from the short-term order rush in 2022, has stronger structural characteristics, and may persist for two to three years.

Analysis framework

Assesses the impact of demand growth, manufacturing yields, advanced-capacity allocation, and product complexity on packaging substrate supply and demand by combining Japan's monthly packaging-related shipment statistics, unit-area prices, and frontline industry observations of supply-demand conditions.

Methodology notes

• Industry Supply-Demand AnalysisSupply-Demand Balance Analysis

  Advanced capacity constraints and demand growth

  Assesses the persistence of tight supply and demand for high-end packaging substrates by comparing expanding server- and AI-related demand with available advanced factory capacity.

• Price and Volume AnalysisPrice-Volume Analysis

  Unit-area prices and shipment area

  Breaks down shipment value into shipment area and price per square meter to identify the primary drivers of growth.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ibiden [4062]

  Advanced packaging substrate supplier

  Strengths

  The report believes it has the largest number of advanced production lines in the industry and may become an important supplier of advanced packaging products such as EMIB-T.

  Weaknesses

  Advanced capacity is constrained and may be insufficient to meet customers' large-scale demand in a timely manner.

  Comparison

  Compared with peers that have fewer production lines, it has stronger advanced manufacturing capability; however, advanced factories across the industry are capacity-constrained.

  Risks

  Changes in customer demand priorities, shifts in capacity allocation between CPU and GPU substrates, yield risks, and capacity-expansion execution risks.

• Supply chain for server CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, network switches, and custom ASICs

  Demand side for high-end packaging substrates

  Strengths

  AI data center buildouts and growth in server demand generate sustained demand for high-end substrates.

  Weaknesses

  Highly dependent on limited advanced packaging substrate capacity.

  Comparison

  Lower-priority projects may be shifted to older-process substrate factories, facing greater qualification and manufacturing pressure.

  Risks

  Insufficient substrate supply may affect product delivery schedules and output.

Key data

• June Packaging Substrate Shipment ValueJPY 29.1 billion, +98% YoYRigid module substrate shipment value, exceeding the previous high of JPY 27.8 billion in May.
• June Shipment Volume by Area+20% YoYMeasured in square meters.
• June Average PriceJPY 1.429 million/square meter, +65% YoYAbove the previous high of JPY 1.356 million/square meter in May.
• High-End Substrate Supply-Demand OutlookTightness may persist for two to three yearsBased on rising AI-related demand, lower yields, and limited advanced capacity.
• EMIB-T Mass Production Expectation2H27Its longer process flow and greater manufacturing difficulty may further constrain advanced factory capacity.

Impact & implications

For advanced packaging substrate suppliers, a persistently tight supply-demand environment supports pricing and capacity utilization, but customer prioritization and product mix will more directly affect deliveries. For downstream chip and systems manufacturers, substrate availability may constrain volume ramp-ups for servers, AI accelerators, and networking equipment. The industry's competitive focus will expand from pure technological capability to large-format substrate technology and the ability to expand advanced capacity.

Risks

• Actual supply and demand for advanced packaging substrates are difficult to verify accurately from outside because the number of customers is limited.
• Changes in customer inventories, order cadence, or AI infrastructure capital expenditure may weaken demand.
• Capacity expansion, yield improvements, or progress in alternative packaging technologies faster than expected may ease supply-demand tightness.
• The concentration of high-end substrate resources among priority customers may cause manufacturing or qualification issues for lower-priority projects.

What to watch

• Subsequent monthly packaging substrate shipment value, shipment area, and price per square meter.
• Demand and order changes for server CPUs, GPUs, AI accelerators, and network switches.
• Ibiden's capacity allocation for CPU- and Rubin-related packaging substrates, and whether it resumes increasing Rubin substrate production in or after October to December.
• EMIB-T's mass-production progress in 2H27 and its impact on advanced factory capacity.
• Whether expansion of industry advanced production lines, product yields, and manufacturing problems for lower-priority projects emerge.