Global macroeconomic data releases and central bank decisions for August 10–16 Report Interpretation

Overview

Goldman Sachs’ weekly global economics preview sets out its forecasts for scheduled central-bank decisions and major macro releases. The main deviations from consensus are a higher expected policy rate in Peru, slightly firmer China and India inflation, and weaker US core retail sales.

Core views

The report’s first focus is the week’s central-bank calendar. Meetings are scheduled in Peru, Norway, India, Australia, Kenya and Romania. Goldman Sachs expects Peru’s central-bank reference rate to be 4.5%, above both Bloomberg consensus and the prior 4.25% rate. Its forecasts for Norway’s deposit rate, India’s policy rate, Australia’s cash rate, Kenya’s central-bank rate and Romania’s policy rate are all unchanged from both consensus and the last readings: 4.25%, 5.25%, 4.35%, 8.75% and 6.5%, respectively. The second focus is inflation, activity and consumer data across major economies. Goldman Sachs highlights US CPI, euro-area GDP, China CPI, Brazil IPCA inflation, India CPI and US core retail sales as key releases. Its above-consensus calls include China July CPI at 0.9% year-on-year versus 0.8% consensus and 1.0% previously, and India July CPI at 4.5% versus 4.4% consensus and 4.38% previously. In the US, it expects core retail sales to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, below consensus of 0.3% and the prior 0.5% gain. The detailed calendar adds further forecast context. Goldman Sachs expects US headline CPI to rise 0.05% month-on-month and 3.35% year-on-year in July, core CPI to rise 0.19% month-on-month and be 2.47% year-on-year, and headline, core, and ex-food-energy-and-trade PPI each to rise 0.4% month-on-month. It forecasts headline retail sales at -0.1% month-on-month, versus 0.1% consensus, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected at 55 versus 54.5 consensus. Elsewhere, it forecasts euro-area second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, China PPI at -4.0% year-on-year, Singapore GDP at 5.9% year-on-year, and Malaysia GDP at 5.9% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs states that it has no additional out-of-consensus views for the week under its threshold of a forecast difference of at least one standard deviation of historical surprises. The calendar therefore emphasizes a limited set of modest forecast divergences rather than a broad set of unusually differentiated macro calls. It also notes that exact release dates for some emerging-market indicators may be uncertain because publication timing is ultimately determined by the relevant statistical agency.

Analysis framework

The report screens scheduled policy meetings and economic releases, compares Goldman Sachs forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and prior readings, and highlights the largest differences. It selects key global releases primarily from inflation, activity and employment data. For central-bank meetings, it also estimates market-implied policy expectations from OIS curves where available.

Methodology notes

• Other

  Market-implied central-bank pricing from OIS curves

  For countries with an OIS curve, Goldman Sachs compares implied rates from contracts maturing before and after the week to attribute the difference to the expected policy decision. For Brazil, it uses the CDIE Bloomberg page; countries without an OIS curve are generally excluded from this measure.

• Other

  Normalized out-of-consensus score

  Goldman Sachs measures the gap between its forecast and Bloomberg consensus relative to the historical standard deviation of actual-data surprises since 2000. This permits comparison across indicators with different typical volatility; scores are capped at plus or minus 5.

Key data

• Peru central-bank reference rate4.5%Goldman Sachs forecast versus 4.25% consensus and 4.25% last rate.
• China CPI year-on-year0.9%July Goldman Sachs forecast versus 0.8% consensus and 1.0% previously.
• India CPI year-on-year4.5%July Goldman Sachs forecast versus 4.4% consensus and 4.38% previously.
• US core retail sales month-on-month0.2%July Goldman Sachs forecast versus 0.3% consensus and 0.5% previously.
• US headline CPI year-on-year3.35%July Goldman Sachs forecast versus 3.4% consensus and 3.5% previously.
• Euro-area GDP quarter-on-quarter0.4%Second-quarter preliminary forecast, in line with consensus and the prior reading.

Impact & implications

The report frames the week around whether policy outcomes and major inflation and activity releases validate its relatively higher Peru rate and China and India CPI forecasts, as well as its softer US consumer-spending forecast. Apart from these differences, Goldman Sachs sees few unusually large departures from consensus expectations.

Risks

• Exact release dates for some emerging-market indicators may change because publication timing is at the discretion of the relevant agency.

What to watch

• Policy decisions in Peru, Norway, India, Australia, Kenya and Romania.
• US CPI, PPI, retail sales and consumer sentiment releases.
• China CPI, PPI, aggregate financing, new yuan loans and money-supply data.
• India CPI and euro-area second-quarter GDP.
• Whether Peru’s policy decision is higher than the 4.25% consensus expectation.