Goldman Sachs Global Weekly Preview Focuses on Central Bank Meetings and Key Economic Data

Overview

This report is the August 3 to August 9 weekly preview published by the Goldman Sachs global economics team. It summarizes major central bank meetings and global economic data releases scheduled for the coming week, and identifies Goldman Sachs forecasts that are weaker than or deviate more from the Bloomberg consensus.

Core views

The core views include: policy rate forecasts for the central banks of Mexico, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and India are in line with market consensus; the US nonfarm payrolls forecast is 75k, below the consensus of 85k; and some emerging-market inflation forecasts are significantly below consensus, including Philippines CPI at 6.1% year-on-year, Thailand CPI at 2.0% year-on-year, and Kazakhstan CPI at 10.3% year-on-year.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event calendar and consensus-deviation framework, comparing Goldman Sachs forecasts with the Bloomberg consensus and the previous period's actual values, and standardizing forecast differences using the standard deviation of historical data surprises to identify macro indicators that deviate most from consensus.

Methodology notes

• Market PricingCentral Bank Meeting Market Pricing

  Estimate meeting-implied interest rate changes using OIS curves or available market pages.

  Goldman Sachs extracts the interest rate implied by the one-day OIS receiving curve through GS Quant, compares the differences between contracts expiring on the Friday before and after the meeting, and attributes the difference to market pricing of the central bank decision; countries without OIS curves are generally excluded from market pricing, while Brazil uses the CDIE Bloomberg page.

• Forecast DeviationOut-of-consensus score

  Standardize the difference between the Goldman Sachs forecast and the Bloomberg consensus by the historical standard deviation of surprises.

  Since 2000, the report has calculated historical surprises as the difference between actual releases and the Bloomberg consensus for each indicator, and uses their standard deviation to standardize the difference between the Goldman Sachs forecast and consensus; the score is capped at +/-5.

• Indicator SelectionKey Global Indicator Selection

  Subjectively select globally important data releases.

  Key indicators primarily cover inflation, economic activity, and employment data for countries monitored by the Goldman Sachs economics team.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global Interest Rates

  Directly related

  Strengths

  Central bank meetings and employment and inflation data are important drivers of yield-curve pricing.

  Weaknesses

  Most central bank decision forecasts are in line with consensus, leaving limited pre-event expectation gaps.

  Comparison

  The forecast for US nonfarm payrolls being below consensus is relatively more likely to affect developed-market rate expectations.

  Risks

  Actual data and policy statements deviating from forecasts could trigger rapid yield repricing.

• Foreign Exchange Market

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Policy rates, inflation, and trade data may affect the performance of the US dollar and emerging-market currencies.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a clear exchange-rate direction or trading recommendation.

  Comparison

  Emerging-market inflation below consensus could have differentiated effects on local rate and currency expectations.

  Risks

  Data release delays, changes in consensus, and fluctuations in risk appetite could weaken the forecast signal.

• Global Risk Assets

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Growth indicators such as employment and PMI data can help assess macro risk appetite.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not analyze the fundamentals of specific companies or industries.

  Comparison

  Macroeconomic data has a greater impact on indices and cross-asset risk appetite than on any single security.

  Risks

  Markets may focus more on the policy reaction function following the data than on the individual data point itself.

Key data

• Mexico Policy Rate ForecastGS: 6.5%; consensus: 6.5%; last: 6.5%In line with consensus.
• Czech Republic Policy Rate ForecastGS: 3.75%; consensus: 3.75%; last: 3.75%In line with consensus.
• Brazil Policy Rate ForecastGS: 14.0%; consensus: 14.0%; last: 14.25%In line with consensus and lower than the previous level.
• India Policy Rate ForecastGS: 5.25%; consensus: 5.25%; last: 5.25%In line with consensus.
• US Nonfarm PayrollsGS: 75.0k; consensus: 85.0k; last: 57.0kGoldman Sachs' forecast is weaker than consensus.
• Philippines CPI Year-on-YearGS: 6.1%; consensus: 6.4%; last: 6.4%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.
• Thailand CPI Year-on-YearGS: 2.0%; consensus: 2.62%; last: 2.42%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.
• Kazakhstan CPI Year-on-YearGS: 10.3%; consensus: 10.6%; last: 10.3%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.

Impact & implications

If US employment data is weaker than consensus, it could affect market pricing of US growth momentum and the interest rate path; if emerging-market inflation is below consensus, it could ease monetary policy pressure in some regions. Central bank decision forecasts being in line with consensus implies limited expectation gaps around the major policy events themselves, but surprises in actual statements and data could still drive volatility in rates, foreign exchange, and risk assets.

Risks

• Actual economic data releases may differ significantly from the Goldman Sachs forecast or Bloomberg consensus.
• Release dates for some emerging-market data may be delayed; the schedule set by the issuing institution will prevail.
• Available market pricing is lacking or limited in scope for markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, and the Czech Republic.
• The report is based on currently available public information and research judgment, and forecasts may change as new information emerges.

What to watch

• US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data on August 7.
• The outcomes and wording of policy statements from the central banks of Mexico, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and India.
• Whether inflation data for the Philippines, Thailand, and Kazakhstan comes in below consensus.
• Euro Area PMI, Brazil IGP-DI inflation, and other key global activity indicators.