Global week-ahead central-bank decisions and macroeconomic data releases Report Interpretation

Overview

Goldman Sachs’ weekly global economics preview identifies the coming week’s key central-bank meetings and data releases, compares its forecasts with consensus, and highlights the largest standardized forecast deviations.

Core views

The report’s central-bank calendar covers meetings in Mexico, Czechia, Brazil and India. Goldman Sachs expects rates to remain at 6.5% in Mexico, 3.75% in Czechia, 14.0% in Brazil and 5.25% in India. These calls match consensus in all four cases. Brazil’s forecast would represent a 25bp decline from the prior 14.25% rate, while the other three forecasts equal their respective last settings. The report notes that market-pricing measures were unavailable for India, Brazil, Mexico and Czechia. For global data, the report highlights US nonfarm payrolls, the US unemployment rate, euro-area PMIs and Brazil IGP-DI inflation. Its notable US divergence is a 75.0k forecast for monthly nonfarm payrolls, below the 85.0k Bloomberg consensus and above the prior 57.0k reading. The accompanying release calendar also shows a 4.3% unemployment-rate forecast, matching consensus but above the prior 4.2%; ISM Services PMI at 55.0 versus 54.3 consensus; and US trade balance of goods and services at negative US$73bn versus negative US$71bn consensus. Goldman Sachs identifies forecasts that differ from consensus by at least one historical standard deviation of surprise. These include Philippines July CPI inflation of 6.1% year on year versus 6.4% consensus and 6.4% previously, Thailand CPI of 2.0% versus 2.62% consensus and 2.42% previously, and Kazakhstan CPI of 10.3% versus 10.6% consensus and 10.3% previously. The report therefore emphasizes relatively softer-than-consensus inflation expectations in these three cases. The report frames its comparison using standardized surprise measures rather than raw forecast gaps alone. It calculates an out-of-consensus score as the Goldman Sachs forecast minus Bloomberg consensus, normalized by the historical standard deviation of the difference between the actual print and consensus forecast since 2000, with scores capped at plus or minus 5. For central-bank market pricing, it derives the expected policy decision from the difference between one-day-maturity OIS receiver-curve contracts expiring immediately before and after the week; Brazil is an exception, using the Bloomberg CDIE page where relevant.

Analysis framework

The report first identifies scheduled central-bank decisions, then selects globally important inflation, activity and employment releases. It compares Goldman Sachs forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and prior readings, using a historically normalized surprise score to identify unusually differentiated calls. Market-implied policy expectations are calculated from changes in OIS pricing around meeting dates where such curves are available.

Methodology notes

• Other

  OIS-based market pricing for central-bank meetings

  Goldman Sachs compares implied rates from OIS receiver-curve contracts maturing before and after the meeting week; the difference is treated as the market-implied policy decision. Brazil instead uses Bloomberg CDIE pricing when applicable.

• Other

  Normalized out-of-consensus score

  The report scales the gap between its forecast and Bloomberg consensus by each indicator’s historical surprise volatility since 2000, allowing forecast differences to be compared across indicators; scores are capped at +/- 5.

Key data

• Mexico policy rate forecast6.5%Matches consensus and the prior rate.
• Czechia policy rate forecast3.75%Matches consensus and the prior rate.
• Brazil policy rate forecast14.0%Matches consensus; prior rate was 14.25%.
• India policy rate forecast5.25%Matches consensus and the prior rate.
• US nonfarm payrolls forecast75.0kBelow 85.0k consensus; prior reading was 57.0k.
• Philippines CPI forecast6.1% year on yearBelow 6.4% consensus and the prior 6.4%.
• Thailand CPI forecast2.0% year on yearBelow 2.62% consensus and the prior 2.42%.
• Kazakhstan CPI forecast10.3% year on yearBelow 10.6% consensus and equal to the prior 10.3%.

Impact & implications

The report highlights where upcoming macro releases or policy decisions may differ materially from prevailing expectations. Its differentiated view centers on softer US payroll growth than consensus and lower-than-consensus inflation forecasts in the Philippines, Thailand and Kazakhstan, while its four central-bank calls are consensus-aligned.

Risks

• Release dates for some emerging-market indicators may be delayed because publication timing is ultimately determined by the relevant agency.

What to watch

• Central-bank decisions in Mexico, Czechia, Brazil and India.
• US nonfarm payrolls and the US unemployment rate.
• Euro-area PMIs and Brazil IGP-DI inflation.
• Philippines, Thailand and Kazakhstan CPI releases, where Goldman Sachs has out-of-consensus forecasts.