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Goldman Sachs Outlook for Global Macro Events from April 6 to 12: Many Central Banks Likely to Hold, US and China Inflation Forecasts Below Consensus

Institution
Goldman Sachs
Date
2026-04-05
Authors
Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Dong, Megan Peters
Company
-
Ticker
-
Industry
Macroeconomics
Rating
-
NeutralLow confidenceThe report is a weekly global macro outlook that highlights central bank meetings, economic data releases, and Goldman Sachs' forecast deviations from consensus. It does not constitute a recommendation on any single asset or company.
AuthorsJan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Dong, Megan Peters
CoverageEurope、Other
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesGoldman Sachs（Other）、Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC（Other）、Goldman Sachs International（Other）

AI summary card

Goldman Sachs Outlook for Global Macro Events from April 6 to 12: Many Central Banks Likely to Hold, US and China Inflation Forecasts Below Consensus

The report summarizes major central bank decisions and key economic releases over the coming week. Goldman Sachs' policy rate forecasts for New Zealand, Poland, Peru, South Korea, India, Kenya, and Romania are all in line with consensus, while some indicators, including US PCE, US CPI, and China CPI, are below consensus.

No stock ratings, target prices, or company investment recommendations; this report is a weekly global macro event and data forecast.
Global MacroCentral Bank MeetingsInflation DataUS CPIChina CPIPolicy RatesGoldman Sachs ForecastConsensus Divergence
  • Central bank meetings are scheduled this week in New Zealand, Poland, Peru, South Korea, India, Kenya, and Romania, and Goldman Sachs' policy rate forecasts for all of them are in line with market consensus and the prior level.
  • Key global indicators include Brazil Inflation IPCA, China CPI, US Core CPI, US Core PCE, and Russia CPI.
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts Russia CPI yoy at 5.9%, slightly above the 5.8% consensus; US PCE mom at 0.34%, below the 0.4% consensus; and China CPI yoy at 1.0%, below the 1.2% consensus.
  • The most notable below-consensus forecasts include US Headline CPI MoM, US Headline CPI yoy, US Headline PCE MoM, US Durable Goods Orders MoM, UMich 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations, and Japan PPI MoM.

Report interpretation

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs Economics Research's global outlook for the week ahead, covering central bank meetings and economic data releases from April 6 to 12. Its core purpose is to present the Goldman Sachs economics team's forecasts for key policy rates and economic indicators, and to highlight views that are stronger or weaker than Bloomberg consensus.

Core views

Goldman Sachs expects the policy rates of the central banks in New Zealand, Poland, Peru, South Korea, India, Kenya, and Romania to remain at levels consistent with consensus. On the data side, Goldman Sachs is slightly above consensus on Russia CPI yoy, while it is below consensus on US PCE mom, China CPI yoy, US Headline CPI, US Headline PCE, US Durable Goods Orders, UMich 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations, and Japan PPI, suggesting a somewhat more subdued view than the market on some US inflation and activity data.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event-calendar and consensus-comparison framework: it first lists upcoming central bank decisions and key data release times, then compares Goldman Sachs forecasts, Bloomberg consensus, and prior readings, and standardizes forecast deviations using the historical standard deviation of data surprises to identify the macro views that deviate most from consensus.

Methodology notes

  • Market pricingImplied market pricing for central bank meetings

    Estimate market pricing for central bank decisions through the OIS receiver curve

    The report uses GS Quant to extract the implied rate from 1-day OIS contracts, compares the difference between the contracts expiring on the Friday before the meeting and the Friday after the meeting, and attributes that difference to market participants' expectations for the central bank decision. If a country does not have an OIS curve, it is generally excluded from market pricing; Brazil is an exception and is priced using the CDIE Bloomberg page.

  • Consensus divergenceOut-of-consensus score

    Standardize the difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus by the historical standard deviation of data surprises

    The report calculates the historical surprises between Bloomberg consensus and actual releases for each indicator since 2000, then standardizes the difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus by the standard deviation of that series. The score is capped at +/-5, consistent with the MAP surprise score.

  • Indicator selectionSubjective selection of key global indicators

    Prioritize globally important data releases

    Key global indicators are primarily selected subjectively by the Goldman Sachs economics team and cover the most important inflation, activity, and labor market data within its research universe.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • Global rates markets
    Directly linked to central bank meetings and OIS-implied pricing
    Strengths
    Most central bank forecasts are in line with consensus, which helps reduce the risk of policy-rate surprises.
    Weaknesses
    If actual decisions or statement language deviate from consensus, rates markets may still reprice.
    Comparison
    New Zealand, Poland, Peru, South Korea, India, Kenya, and Romania all show Goldman Sachs forecasts in line with consensus.
    Risks
    Some emerging-market data releases may be delayed, and policy communication may also trigger volatility.
  • US inflation and rate expectations
    US CPI, PCE, and inflation expectation data affect Treasury yields and monetary policy expectations
    Strengths
    Goldman Sachs is below consensus on multiple US inflation indicators, which, if confirmed, could ease concerns about inflation pressure.
    Weaknesses
    Headline CPI MoM is still sharply above the prior reading, so near-term inflation volatility risk has not disappeared.
    Comparison
    US Headline CPI MoM is GS 0.87% versus consensus 1.0%, while US Headline CPI yoy is GS 3.28% versus consensus 3.4%.
    Risks
    If the released figures are above consensus, yields may rise and risk assets may come under pressure.
  • China macro data
    China CPI yoy affects assessments of Chinese demand, disinflation pressure, and policy support
    Strengths
    The below-consensus forecast suggests caution on the pace of price recovery.
    Weaknesses
    Weak CPI may reflect insufficient domestic demand or price momentum.
    Comparison
    China CPI yoy is GS 1.0%, below the 1.2% consensus and the 1.3% prior reading.
    Risks
    If CPI continues to undershoot expectations, markets may pay closer attention to growth and additional policy support.
  • Japan macro data
    Japan PPI and consumer confidence data affect Japan's inflation transmission and policy expectations
    Strengths
    The report lists Japan PPI MoM as one of the below-consensus observations, helping identify changes in price pass-through.
    Weaknesses
    The chart and text provide limited detail on Japan-specific indicators, so further confirmation from the regional weekly report is needed.
    Comparison
    Japan PPI MoM is GS 0.5%, below the 0.7% consensus and up from -0.1% previously.
    Risks
    If Japanese price data are stronger than expected, market expectations for the pace of policy normalization in Japan could change.

Key data

  • New Zealand policy rateGS 2.25%; Consensus 2.25%; Last 2.25%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Poland policy rateGS 3.75%; Consensus 3.75%; Last 3.75%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Peru policy rateGS 4.25%; Consensus 4.25%; Last 4.25%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • South Korea policy rateGS 2.5%; Consensus 2.5%; Last 2.5%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • India policy rateGS 5.25%; Consensus 5.25%; Last 5.25%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Kenya policy rateGS 8.75%; Consensus 8.75%; Last 8.75%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Romania policy rateGS 6.5%; Consensus 6.5%; Last 6.5%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Russia CPI yoyGS 5.9%; Consensus 5.8%; Last 5.91%Goldman Sachs' forecast is above consensus.
  • US PCE momGS 0.34%; Consensus 0.4%; Last 0.3%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.
  • China CPI yoyGS 1.0%; Consensus 1.2%; Last 1.3%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.
  • US Headline CPI MoMGS 0.87%; Consensus 1.0%; Last 0.3%One of the week's most consensus-divergent, below-consensus forecasts.
  • US Durable Goods Orders MoMGS -5.0%; Consensus -1.0%; Last 0.0%Goldman Sachs is materially below consensus, pointing to downside risk for durable goods orders.

Impact & implications

For investors, the main focus this week is whether central banks keep policy unchanged, whether US inflation and PCE data come in below market expectations, whether China CPI remains weak, and whether Russia CPI comes in slightly above consensus. If actual data is close to Goldman Sachs' forecasts, it could affect views on inflation resilience, the rate-cut path, the yield curve, and near-term pricing in risk assets.

Risks

  • The forecasts and views in the report are as of the publication date and may change later without timely updates.
  • The actual release dates for some emerging-market economic data may be delayed, and final timing depends on the data provider.
  • The difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus is not a trading recommendation, and actual releases may diverge materially from both.
  • Although central bank decisions are expected to match consensus, statements, voting splits, or forward guidance may still create additional market volatility.
  • The research disclosure states that Goldman Sachs and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the relevant securities or derivatives or engage in proprietary trading.

What to watch

  • Whether the policy rates of the central banks in New Zealand, Poland, Peru, South Korea, India, Kenya, and Romania remain in line with consensus.
  • Whether US Headline CPI, US Core CPI, US Core PCE, and US Headline PCE come in below consensus.
  • Whether China CPI yoy continues to come in below market expectations.
  • Whether Russia CPI yoy comes in slightly above consensus.
  • Whether US Durable Goods Orders MoM shows a significant negative reading.
  • Whether UMich 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations comes in below consensus.
  • Whether Japan PPI and other developed-market data support the view that inflation is cooling.
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