Goldman Sachs Global Weekly Outlook: Focus on Three Central Bank Decisions and Key US and European Data

Overview

This report is a weekly global macro outlook published by Goldman Sachs' economics research team, covering central bank meetings and major economic data for June 22 to June 28, 2026. The report focuses on Goldman Sachs' forecasts and consensus gaps for the central bank decisions of Hungary, Thailand, and Mexico, as well as data such as US PCE, Euro Area PMI, Canada CPI, and Australia's unemployment rate.

Core views

The core view is that expectations for this week's three central bank decisions are relatively stable, with Goldman Sachs' forecasts in line with consensus; on the data side, Goldman Sachs is relatively bullish on Euro Area services PMI and relatively bearish on Euro Area manufacturing PMI, and identifies US PCE year-over-year and German services PMI as key forecasts that deviate more from consensus.

Analysis framework

The report is based on forecasts from Goldman Sachs' regional economics teams and compares those forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and prior readings; for central bank meetings, it uses GS Quant to extract market-implied rates from the OIS curve; for data forecasts, it uses the standard deviation of historical data surprises to standardize the degree of deviation between Goldman Sachs' forecasts and consensus.

Methodology notes

• Interest rate pricingMarket-implied central bank pricing

  Measure the market's implied expectations for central bank decisions through the OIS curve.

  The report extracts implied rate differences from contracts maturing before and after meetings, and attributes those differences to market participants' expectations for central bank decisions; if a country does not have an OIS curve, it is generally not included in this market pricing metric, with Brazil as an exception using CDIE Bloomberg page pricing.

• Forecast deviationConsensus deviation score

  Standardize the difference between Goldman Sachs' forecasts and consensus using historical surprise standard deviations.

  The report first calculates the historical surprises between Bloomberg consensus and actual releases for each indicator since 2000, then standardizes the gap between Goldman Sachs' forecasts and consensus using the standard deviation, and caps the score within plus or minus 5.

• Data screeningSelection of key global indicators

  Subjectively screen the most important global data releases.

  The screening mainly includes inflation, activity, and employment data for the covered countries, in order to highlight the key data that may affect macro market pricing this week.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global rates

  Directly affected by central bank decisions and inflation data

  Strengths

  Forecasts for the three central banks are in line with consensus, helping to reduce uncertainty around the meetings themselves.

  Weaknesses

  US PCE and regional inflation data may still change short-end rate expectations.

  Comparison

  Compared with central bank meetings, key data surprises may be the more important marginal driver.

  Risks

  If actual data materially deviate from consensus, the yield curve may be repriced.

• Foreign exchange

  Affected by rate differential expectations and regional data performance

  Strengths

  If policy rates meet expectations, exchange rates may depend more on data divergences and changes in risk appetite.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide specific directional FX trading recommendations.

  Comparison

  Regional PMI and inflation data may affect the relative performance of the euro, the US dollar, and related emerging market currencies.

  Risks

  Central bank wording or uncertainty in data release dates may amplify short-term volatility.

• Equity indices and risk assets

  Transmitted through growth, inflation, and policy expectations

  Strengths

  Euro Area services PMI above consensus may support the view of improving services activity.

  Weaknesses

  Manufacturing PMI is slightly weaker than consensus, indicating that economic momentum is not balanced.

  Comparison

  The reaction of risk assets to the data mix may depend on whether the market places more weight on improving growth or inflation pressure.

  Risks

  If inflation or employment data trigger more hawkish policy expectations, valuations may come under pressure.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-21The report title covers June 22 to June 28, 2026.
• Hungary central bank policy rate forecastGS: 6.0%; consensus: 6.0%; last: 6.25%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus and below the previous level.
• Thailand central bank policy rate forecastGS: 1.0%; consensus: 1.0%; last: 1.0%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with both consensus and the previous level.
• Mexico central bank policy rate forecastGS: 6.5%; consensus: 6.5%; last: 6.5%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with both consensus and the previous level.
• Euro Area services PMIGS: 49.0; consensus: 48.7; last: 47.7Goldman Sachs' forecast is stronger than consensus and also above the previous reading.
• Euro Area manufacturing PMIGS: 51.6; consensus: 51.7; last: 51.6Goldman Sachs' forecast is slightly weaker than consensus and in line with the previous reading.
• US PCE price index year-over-yearGS: 4.04%; consensus: 4.1%; last: 3.8%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus but above the previous reading.
• German services PMIGS: 49.5; consensus: 49.0; last: 48.1Goldman Sachs' forecast is above both consensus and the previous reading.

Impact & implications

If central bank decisions align with consensus, the main source of rate market volatility may come more from the surprise magnitude in inflation, PMI, and employment data. If US PCE is above the previous reading but slightly below consensus, it may affect the market's judgment on inflation stickiness and the policy path; the combination of improving Euro Area services and slightly weaker manufacturing may reinforce attention on the uneven regional economic recovery.

Risks

• Actual economic data releases may differ significantly from Goldman Sachs' forecasts and Bloomberg consensus.
• The release timing of some emerging market economies' data is uncertain, and final release dates depend on the publishing institutions.
• The market-implied rate model depends on OIS or alternative pricing data; if market liquidity is insufficient, the explanatory power of pricing may decline.
• The forecasts and estimates in the report are as of the report date and may be adjusted as new information emerges.

What to watch

• The outcomes and post-meeting wording of the central bank meetings in Hungary, Thailand, and Mexico.
• Whether the US PCE price index year-over-year comes close to GS 4.04% and consensus 4.1%.
• Whether Euro Area services PMI and manufacturing PMI validate Goldman Sachs' relative strength and weakness view.
• The impact of Canada CPI and Australia's unemployment rate on local policy expectations.
• Whether German services PMI continues improving from the previous 48.1 to Goldman Sachs' forecast of 49.5.