Goldman Sachs Global Week Ahead Macro Outlook: Focus on Central Bank Meetings, US GDP, and Inflation Data

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' "Global Week Ahead: April 27- May 3," which outlines the schedule of major global central bank meetings and economic data releases from April 27 to May 3, 2026, and highlights where the Goldman Sachs economics team has stronger or weaker forecasts relative to market consensus. The report covers economies including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Canada, Australia, China, South Korea, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Ukraine.

Core views

The core view is that most major developed market central bank rate forecasts are in line with consensus, including the upper bound of the US federal funds target range at 3.75%, Japan's target rate at 0.75%, the UK bank rate at 3.75%, the Euro Area policy rate at 2.0%, and Canada's overnight rate at 2.25%. Goldman Sachs is relatively more bullish than consensus on Colombia's policy rate, US GDP, Australia CPI, and US durable goods orders, while relatively more bearish on Italy's year-over-year HICP and Spain's quarter-over-quarter GDP.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event calendar and consensus comparison framework, listing central bank decisions, inflation, growth, employment, and activity data item by item, and comparing Goldman Sachs forecasts with Bloomberg consensus and prior readings. For indicators that deviate from consensus, the report uses scores standardized by historical surprise volatility to measure the degree of forecast divergence.

Methodology notes

• Macro forecast comparisonGoldman Sachs forecast vs. Bloomberg consensus comparison

  Compare the Goldman Sachs economics team's forecasts with Bloomberg market consensus and the previous actual reading.

  This method is used to identify economic indicators and central bank policy views where Goldman Sachs is stronger, weaker, or broadly in line with market expectations.

• Standardized divergence measurementOut-of-consensus score

  Use the standard deviation of historical data surprises to standardize the gap between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus forecasts.

  The report explains that this score is based on the historical gap between Bloomberg consensus and actual releases since 2000, with the gap between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus divided by that historical standard deviation; the score is capped at +5 and -5.

• Interest rate market pricingOIS implied rate pricing

  Use one-day maturity contracts on the OIS receiver curve to infer changes in market-implied rates before and after central bank meetings.

  The report uses the difference between implied rates on contracts maturing the Friday before and the Friday after the meeting to measure market pricing of central bank decisions; countries without OIS curves are generally not shown with market pricing, while Brazil uses pricing from the CDIE Bloomberg page.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global rates markets

  Directly related to central bank meetings and OIS market pricing.

  Strengths

  The report covers central bank decisions in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Canada, and multiple emerging markets.

  Weaknesses

  Most developed market central bank forecasts are in line with consensus, so directional impact may be limited.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' Colombia policy rate forecast is higher relative to consensus, while major developed market rate forecasts are broadly aligned.

  Risks

  Actual central bank statements, forward guidance, or voting splits may matter more to markets than the rate decisions themselves.

• US macro assets

  US GDP, PCE, employment cost, durable goods orders, and ISM data affect expectations for Treasuries, the US dollar, and equity indices.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs gives clearly stronger-than-consensus forecasts for US GDP and durable goods orders.

  Weaknesses

  Some inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, show smaller differences versus consensus, so the signal may not be fully consistent.

  Comparison

  The US GDP forecast of 3.3% is significantly above the consensus of 2.2%, and durable goods orders at 3.0% are significantly above the consensus of 0.5%.

  Risks

  If actual data come in below Goldman Sachs' forecasts, the growth resilience trade may reverse.

• Australian macro assets

  Australia CPI data affect inflation expectations, rate expectations, and AUD performance.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs forecasts CPI at 5.1% year-over-year, above the consensus of 4.8%.

  Weaknesses

  Some trimmed mean CPI measures are closer to consensus, so views on inflation pressure may diverge.

  Comparison

  Headline CPI year-over-year is stronger than consensus, but the trimmed mean CPI year-over-year forecast of 2.6% is in line with consensus.

  Risks

  If inflation comes in below expectations, market pricing of Australia's rate path may be revised lower.

• European macro assets

  Euro Area GDP, Italy HICP, Spain GDP, and the UK rate decision affect European bonds, the euro, and sterling.

  Strengths

  The report provides item-by-item consensus comparisons for multiple European growth and inflation indicators.

  Weaknesses

  The Euro Area GDP forecast of 0.18% is close to the consensus of 0.2%, implying limited overall upside surprise signal.

  Comparison

  Italy HICP and Spain GDP are indicators where Goldman Sachs is weaker relative to consensus.

  Risks

  If European data show regional divergence, uncertainty around ECB and BoE policy expectations may increase.

Key data

• Colombia minimum repo rateGS 12.0%; consensus 11.75%; prior 11.25%Goldman Sachs forecasts above consensus, making it a relatively notable hawkish forecast among central bank decisions.
• US federal funds target rate upper boundGS 3.75%; consensus 3.75%; prior 3.75%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus.
• Japan target rateGS 0.75%; consensus 0.75%; prior 0.75%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus.
• UK bank rateGS 3.75%; consensus 3.75%; prior 3.75%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus.
• Euro Area policy rateGS 2.0%; consensus 2.0%; prior 2.0%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus.
• Canada overnight lending rateGS 2.25%; consensus 2.25%; prior 2.25%Goldman Sachs' forecast is in line with market consensus.
• US GDP quarter-over-quarterGS 3.3%; consensus 2.2%; prior 0.5%Goldman Sachs' forecast is clearly above consensus and is one of the stronger forecasts among the key global indicators for the coming week.
• Australia CPI year-over-yearGS 5.1%; consensus 4.8%; prior 3.7%Goldman Sachs' forecast is above both consensus and the prior reading, indicating a stronger inflation outlook.
• US durable goods orders month-over-monthGS 3.0%; consensus 0.5%; prior -1.3%Goldman Sachs' forecast is significantly above consensus and is one of the indicators furthest from consensus.
• Japan Tokyo CPI ex fresh food year-over-yearGS 1.9%; consensus 1.8%; prior 1.7%Goldman Sachs' forecast is slightly above consensus.
• Italy HICP year-over-yearGS 2.4%; consensus 2.6%; prior 1.6%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below consensus.
• Spain GDP quarter-over-quarterGS 0.42%; consensus 0.5%; prior 0.8%Goldman Sachs' forecast is below both consensus and the prior reading.

Impact & implications

The main implication of this report is to help investors identify events in the coming week that could drive volatility in rates, FX, bonds, and macro assets. If US GDP, durable goods orders, or Australia CPI come in stronger than consensus as Goldman Sachs forecasts, the market may reassess the resilience of growth and inflation; if most central bank decisions match consensus, individual data surprises may become more important short-term trading drivers.

Risks

• Actual economic data releases may deviate materially from both Goldman Sachs' forecasts and Bloomberg consensus.
• Release dates for some emerging market data may be delayed, and the report also notes that final release dates depend on the publishing institutions.
• Market reactions depend not only on rate decisions, but also on central bank statements, press conferences, and forward guidance.
• The tables in the report are drawn from extracted text, and some country or indicator rows may contain formatting noise; the original report charts should prevail.
• This report is a weekly macro outlook and does not constitute a rating or target price recommendation for any single security.

What to watch

• 2026-04-29 US durable goods orders and the Federal Reserve rate decision.
• 2026-04-30 US GDP, Core PCE, PCE, initial jobless claims, and personal income and spending data.
• 2026-04-29 Australia CPI data.
• 2026-04-30 Colombia minimum repo rate decision.
• Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food, Italy year-over-year HICP, and Spain quarter-over-quarter GDP, among other indicators deviating from consensus.
• US ISM manufacturing PMI and activity indicators such as consumer confidence.