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Goldman Sachs Preview of Global Central Bank Meetings and Key Data for July 20-26

Institution
Goldman Sachs
Date
2026-07-19
Authors
Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Dong, Megan Peters
Company
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Ticker
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Industry
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Rating
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NeutralLow confidenceThis report is a global macro weekly preview that highlights the Goldman Sachs economics team's forecasts for central bank decisions and key economic data relative to consensus, rather than an individual stock rating report.
AuthorsJan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Sarah Dong, Megan Peters
CoverageUnited States、Europe
Business segmentsCentral bank policy meetings、Global economic data、Inflation indicators、PMI、Trade balance
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesGoldman Sachs（Other）、Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC（Other）、Goldman Sachs International（Other）

AI summary card

Goldman Sachs Preview of Global Central Bank Meetings and Key Data for July 20-26

The report reviews this week's central bank meetings in the Euro Area, South Africa, Turkiye, Russia, Indonesia, Hungary, Ghana, and Kazakhstan, as well as the main differences between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus for key economic indicators in Canada, Japan, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Germany, Colombia, and France.

Not applicable: This report is a macro weekly preview and contains no individual stock ratings, target prices, or expected upside.
Global macroCentral bank decisionsInflationPMIAbove-consensus forecasts
  • Goldman Sachs expects South Africa's policy rate to be 7.0%, below the consensus expectation of 7.25%.
  • Goldman Sachs expects Russia's policy rate to be 14.25% and Indonesia's to be 6.0%, both above consensus expectations.
  • South Africa's CPI year-over-year forecast is 4.6%, below the consensus of 4.7%; the Euro Area Composite PMI forecast is 50.5, above the consensus of 50.3.
  • Other indicators with the largest deviations from consensus include Germany Services PMI, Colombia Trade Balance FOB, France Manufacturing PMI, and Japan CPI ex. Fresh Food yoy.

Report interpretation

Overview

This Goldman Sachs global macro weekly preview covers July 20 to July 26, 2026, summarizing the Goldman Sachs economics team's forecasts for this week's central bank policy decisions and key economic data releases, and highlighting views that are weaker, stronger, or materially different relative to Bloomberg consensus. The report covers macro indicators for the Euro Area, South Africa, Turkiye, Russia, Indonesia, Hungary, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Colombia, and France.

Core views

The core view is that market attention this week will focus on central bank meetings across multiple countries and key global indicators including inflation, PMI, and trade balances. Goldman Sachs is below consensus on the South African central bank rate and South African CPI, above consensus on Russian and Indonesian policy rates and the Euro Area Composite PMI, and in line with consensus on policy rates in Turkiye, Hungary, the Euro Area, Ghana, and Kazakhstan.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event-calendar and consensus-difference framework: it first lists this week's central bank meetings and key data releases, then compares Goldman Sachs forecasts, Bloomberg consensus, and previous readings, marking forecasts that deviate materially from consensus. The central bank pricing section uses market-implied rates, while the economic indicators section uses standardized above-consensus scores to compare deviations across different indicators.

Methodology notes

  • market_pricingCentral Bank Meeting Market Pricing

    Using OIS curves or specific market pricing to estimate changes in market-implied rates around central bank decisions.

    The report explains that Goldman Sachs extracts market-implied rates from the one-day OIS receiver curve through GS Quant, compares the differences in implied rates for contracts expiring before and after the week, and attributes them to market expectations for central bank decisions. Countries without OIS curves are generally excluded from market pricing, with Brazil as an exception using pricing from the CDIE Bloomberg page.

  • forecast_comparisonAbove-Consensus Score

    The difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and Bloomberg consensus divided by the standard deviation of historical surprises.

    The report uses the difference between actual releases and Bloomberg consensus forecasts for each indicator since 2000 as the historical surprise series. It calculates the standard deviation and uses it to standardize the difference between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus, creating a comparable measure of deviations from consensus across indicators. The score is capped at +/-5 according to the MAP surprise score convention.

  • indicator_selectionSelection of Key Global Indicators

    Subjective selection of the world's most important data releases.

    The report states that key global indicators primarily include inflation, economic activity, and employment data for the economies covered.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • Global interest rate markets
    Central bank policy rate forecasts are related to market pricing
    Strengths
    Central bank meetings in multiple countries are concentrated this week, and policy rate forecasts can directly affect front-end rates and expectations for the yield curve.
    Weaknesses
    The report notes that market pricing is unavailable for some countries, preventing a complete comparison of market-implied paths.
    Comparison
    The South Africa forecast is below consensus, the Russia and Indonesia forecasts are above consensus, and Turkiye, Hungary, the Euro Area, Ghana, and Kazakhstan are in line with consensus.
    Risks
    Actual central bank decisions, policy statement wording, and market liquidity may produce a response different from that implied by a single rate forecast.
  • Foreign exchange and emerging-market assets
    Policy rate and inflation data deviations from consensus may affect exchange rates and local-currency asset pricing
    Strengths
    The report covers events in emerging markets including South Africa, Turkiye, Russia, Indonesia, Ghana, Kazakhstan, and Colombia.
    Weaknesses
    The report provides no specific trading recommendations or asset price targets.
    Comparison
    The Colombia Trade Balance FOB forecast is -900.0USD mn, better than the consensus of -1200.0USD mn and the previous reading of -1760.77USD mn.
    Risks
    Emerging-market data releases may be delayed, and the report also notes uncertainty around the exact release dates of some EM indicators.
  • Assets sensitive to macroeconomic data
    Inflation, PMI, and trade data affect growth and inflation expectations
    Strengths
    The report presents Goldman Sachs forecasts alongside Bloomberg consensus and previous readings, facilitating identification of potential surprises.
    Weaknesses
    The data selection is subjective, and the report does not provide comprehensive asset-allocation recommendations.
    Comparison
    The Euro Area Composite PMI and Germany Services PMI are above consensus, while South Africa CPI and Japan CPI ex. Fresh Food are below consensus.
    Risks
    Historical standard-deviation normalization cannot fully eliminate the risk of misinterpretation caused by data revisions, changes in sample structure, and shifts in market attention.

Key data

  • South Africa Policy RateGS: 7.0%; consensus: 7.25%; last: 7.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is below consensus.
  • Russia Policy RateGS: 14.25%; consensus: 14.0%; last: 14.25%Goldman Sachs forecast is above consensus.
  • Indonesia Policy RateGS: 6.0%; consensus: 5.75%; last: 5.75%Goldman Sachs forecast is above consensus.
  • Turkiye Policy RateGS: 37.0%; consensus: 37.0%; last: 37.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Hungary Policy RateGS: 5.75%; consensus: 5.75%; last: 6.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Euro Area Policy RateGS: 2.25%; consensus: 2.25%; last: 2.25%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Ghana Policy RateGS: 14.0%; consensus: 14.0%; last: 14.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
  • Kazakhstan Policy RateGS: 17.0%; consensus: 17.0%; last: 17.0%Goldman Sachs forecast is in line with consensus.
  • South Africa CPI yoyGS: 4.6%; consensus: 4.7%; last: 4.5%Goldman Sachs forecast is below consensus.
  • Euro Area Composite PMI yoyGS: 50.5; consensus: 50.3; last: 50Goldman Sachs forecast is above consensus.
  • Germany Services PMIGS: 49.7; consensus: 49.0; last: 48.6Listed as one of this week's indicators deviating from consensus.
  • Colombia Trade Balance FOBGS: -900.0USD mn; consensus: -1200.0USD mn; last: -1760.77USD mnListed as one of this week's indicators deviating from consensus.
  • France Manufacturing PMIGS: 50.7; consensus: 51.2; last: 51.2Listed as one of this week's indicators deviating from consensus.
  • Japan CPI ex. Fresh Food yoyGS: 1.5%; consensus: 1.6%; last: 1.4%Listed as one of this week's indicators deviating from consensus.

Impact & implications

The report's main contribution to investment implications is to flag a macro event window that could trigger volatility in interest rates, foreign exchange, and risk assets, particularly around central bank decisions and inflation and PMI data where Goldman Sachs differs from consensus. If actual data are close to Goldman Sachs forecasts but diverge from market consensus, the relevant countries' yield curves, exchange rates, and macro risk appetite could undergo repricing.

Risks

  • Actual central bank decisions may differ from Goldman Sachs forecasts or Bloomberg consensus.
  • The actual release dates of some emerging-market economic data may be delayed or uncertain.
  • Market reactions depend not only on the data itself but also on policy statements, risk appetite, and existing positioning.
  • Above-consensus scores are based on the standard deviation of historical surprises and may not fully reflect the current macroeconomic environment or structural changes.
  • This is thematic macro research and does not constitute a recommendation of any individual stock or security.

What to watch

  • Whether the South African central bank rate remains at Goldman Sachs' forecast of 7.0%.
  • Whether the central banks of Russia and Indonesia deliver rates above consensus.
  • Whether South Africa CPI yoy is below consensus.
  • Whether the Euro Area Composite PMI, Germany Services PMI, and France Manufacturing PMI confirm the differences between Goldman Sachs forecasts and consensus.
  • Whether Colombia Trade Balance FOB is materially better than consensus.
  • Whether Japan CPI ex. Fresh Food yoy is below consensus.
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