Institutional Research

Morgan Stanley argues that renewed sulfuric-acid supply risks in Kazakhstan may constrain uranium production and lift uranium prices. It reiterates a positive view on Kazatomprom and CGN Mining following recent sell-offs.

• Russia introduced temporary sulfuric-acid export restrictions from 22 September to 31 December 2026.
• Russia supplied one-third of Kazakhstan's sulfuric-acid imports in 7M26.
• Kazatomprom's 800kt-per-year TQZ sulfuric-acid plant has been delayed from 1Q27 to 3Q27–1Q28.
• Morgan Stanley believes potential production constraints could support both uranium spot and term prices.
• The report notes that higher acid costs could partly offset the benefit to uranium miners.

Goldman Sachs finds that goods-producing activity, US restocking and technology-related cargo are sustaining air and ocean freight demand. Container rates remain elevated after disruption-driven strength, but are expected to decline gradually into year-end as network disruptions fade.

• Q3 air-cargo volumes are expected to grow 4-5% year on year.
• China port volumes recovered after typhoon disruption, reaching +6% year on year in September so far.
• Air-cargo yields remain more than 20% above prior-year levels despite capacity reactivation.
• Container rates returned to levels seen after the Red Sea disruption, supported by demand and reduced effective capacity.
• European short-haul airlines face excess capacity, broadly flat summer fares and higher fuel costs.
• Long-haul Atlantic supply-demand conditions are comparatively healthier and support fare increases.

Citi argues that early recursive-self-improvement signals, falling inference costs and better application harnesses are broadening the AI intelligence flywheel. It maintains that safety-focused compute allocation is unlikely to alter its global AI-related CapEx projections of $1T in 2026 and $1.6T in 2027.

• Average realized cost-to-serve was down 54% from its May 28 peak and 43% since July 1.
• Z.ai's Infra Agent moved GLM-5.3-Flash into production in under two weeks and tripled throughput across more than 100,000 accelerators.
• A provider adapter harness lifted ARC-AGI-3 performance to 99.95% from 62.71% while cutting cost by 28%.
• Only one proprietary and three open models launched during the week, but trailing-90-day releases remained at 68 proprietary and 40 open models.

Bernstein forecasts European NATO defense budgets of $730bn, or 2.6% of GDP, in 2026, while expecting the European defense companies' addressable opportunity to grow materially faster than total budgets. Germany remains the key market, with Rheinmetall identified as the principal beneficiary.

• European NATO defense budgets are forecast to rise 20% year on year to $730bn in 2026, equal to 2.6% of GDP.
• Bernstein models average European defense spending of 3.2% of GDP in 2035, below the 3.5% target.
• The addressable market for European defense players is projected to grow at 12% CAGR through 2030 and 9% through 2035.
• Equipment is expected to rise to 38% of budgets in 2035 from 34% in 2026 and 29% in 2024.
• Germany is expected to spend $150bn in 2026, up 30% year on year; Bernstein sees Rheinmetall as its key beneficiary.

The report expects Samsung's memory operations and HBM positioning to support a reaccelerating profit cycle, while treating currency pressure and weak shareholder-return communication as nearer-term constraints. J.P. Morgan maintains a W400,000 June 2027 target price.

• HBM value share is projected to rise from 20% in 2025 to 34% in 2026E and 39% in 2027E.
• FY27E blended HBM ASP growth is raised to 64% year on year.
• The report reduces FY26E and FY27E adjusted EPS by 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, largely for FX effects.
• The W400,000 target is based on 6x forward 12-month EPS for 4Q26E-3Q27E.
• Further shareholder-return disclosures and AI/datacenter investment updates are key catalysts.

Management's European investor meetings reinforced Deutsche Bank's view that ServiceNow can capture enterprise AI spending while sustaining gross margins above 80%. The bank reiterates Buy and lifts its target price from $135 to $155, primarily reflecting a higher software-sector multiple.

• Target price raised to $155 from $135; Buy reiterated.
• AI packaging offers Foundation, Advanced and Prime entry points, with reported 20–30% uplifts for Foundation and Advanced.
• Management indicated AI consumption could generate roughly 4.5–5x the ACV associated with the relevant seat-based productivity opportunity.
• Security and risk is a $2bn+ business, supported by recent acquisitions.
• Management expects AI adoption not to push gross margin below 80%.

The report finds that merchants and consumers retain stronger economic and convenience incentives to use digital payments despite MDR. Payment revenues should remain resilient, although cash adoption by smaller merchants could weaken merchant-lending and other data-driven adjacent businesses.

• Annual ATM transactions fell from about 10bn in FY19 to about 5.3bn in FY26.
• For a representative merchant, INR 400 monthly MDR savings fall to INR 275 after lost deposit interest, while loss of transaction-linked credit could add about INR 667 in monthly borrowing cost.
• For a representative consumer, the maximum INR 80 monthly MDR saving falls to about INR 5 after foregone interest and additional ATM costs.
• Large merchants and online merchants account for much of payment value and are unlikely to revert to cash.

JPMorgan sees China’s 15th Five-Year healthcare plan as a constructive medium-term policy signal for innovation-led biopharma, CXO/CDMO, AI drug discovery and high-end medtech. The plan sets measurable targets for FIC innovation, R&D intensity, approvals and commercial scale.

• China-origin FIC drugs are targeted to comprise at least 25% of global innovative drugs by 2030.
• The innovative-drug industry is targeted to grow at no less than 20% annually.
• The plan extends AI applications from discovery and clinical development to manufacturing, quality control, distribution and regulation.
• JPMorgan reiterates WuXi Bio, WuXi AppTec, Innovent and Kelun Biotech as top picks.

The report expects new edge-AI applications and product commercialization to drive a 26% revenue CAGR and 65% net-profit CAGR in 2026-28F. Nomura sets a CNY39.30 target price, implying 31.3% upside from the 17 September 2026 closing price.

• 1H26 revenue rose 41.23% year-on-year to CNY1,888mn and attributable net profit rose 204.17% to CNY490mn.
• Robotics, AI glasses, industrial control and smart cockpits are identified as the main new-product growth vectors.
• Nomura forecasts 2026-28F revenue of CNY3,774mn, CNY4,724mn and CNY5,693mn.
• The CNY39.30 target is based on 45x 2026F P/E versus a peer average of 38x.
• Margin is expected to normalize after the 1H26 pricing uplift, partly cushioned by a better product mix and operating leverage.

Barclays forecasts about 475,000 3Q26 deliveries versus consensus of about 466,000, with FSD demand in North America and China-built exports supporting volume. It expects automotive margins to be broadly flat to slightly lower sequentially, while retaining an Equal Weight rating and USD 370 target price.

• Barclays forecasts approximately 475,000 deliveries, down 4% year on year but above approximately 466,000 consensus.
• FSD penetration exceeded 55% of North American deliveries in 2Q and is expected to remain a demand and margin support in 3Q.
• Shanghai exports may represent at least 20% of Tesla’s global 2026 volume and support demand outside China.
• Automotive margin is expected to be flat to slightly down from 16.3% in 2Q, pressured by incentives, regional mix and raw-material costs.
• Energy Storage deployments are forecast at approximately 15.6 GWh, up approximately 25% year on year.