Freight markets remain resilient, while European short-haul aviation faces persistent pressure

Overview

This global transport-market update uses trade, freight, capacity, fare and traffic indicators to assess conditions across air cargo, ocean freight, passenger aviation, transport infrastructure and commodities shipping. Goldman Sachs’ central message is that freight remains strong in Q3, while travel-market conditions are more uneven, particularly for European short-haul airlines.

Core views

Goldman Sachs argues that air and ocean freight markets remain in good shape because goods-producing economies, particularly in Asia, continue to expand. China’s rising share of global exports, a positive turn in the US inventory cycle and growing datacenter-related volumes are the principal demand drivers. The report expects overall air-cargo volumes to rise 4-5% year on year in Q3. Ocean indicators show low-single-digit growth, but the institution believes those readings understate underlying demand because typhoons and port congestion in China disrupted August flows. Outside those disruptions, China trade growth appears to be running at high-single-digit to low-double-digit rates, while Asia ex-China trade has moved into double-digit growth. European trucking is also improving modestly and consistently, with 3Q26-to-date traffic up 1.2% year on year. Air cargo is the clearest expression of the goods-cycle strength. US restocking has supported freight growth, while technology and datacenter-related shipments underpin Asia outbound volumes, including Taiwan air cargo and semiconductor IC shipments. Global air-cargo rates have remained more than 20% above prior-year levels even as capacity has been reactivated, and cargo load factors were higher year on year in July. The report notes some softer European-hub activity over the summer, partly linked to de minimis rule changes, but points to recovering DHL express volumes and rising utilization as a more constructive signal. Korea air cargo was up high single digits in August. Container shipping has benefited from both strong long-haul demand out of China and limited near-term capacity growth as vessel deliveries are timed later. US restocking, especially on transpacific lanes, combined with unusually high disruption levels to reduce effective capacity and lift freight rates. Disruptions included China typhoons, port congestion, low Rhine river levels and Panama Canal restrictions. Container rates returned to levels seen after the Red Sea disruption, with transpacific rates leading the rally; charter rates remain firm and inactive vessel counts are low. China and Asia ex-China congestion rose during the summer, including an approximately 2% increase in global-capacity congestion in China and Asia ex-China, while Southeast Asian congestion surged in September. The report nevertheless expects container rates to fade gradually into year-end as disruptions ease and more liner services reroute through the Suez Canal. Around one-third of services are now routing through Suez, a trend that began during the summer. Forward markets price lower Q4 rates but not a collapse. The report also identifies a longer-term supply consideration: active fleet growth is lower in 2026, but the container-vessel orderbook is at a record level for deliveries from 2027 through 2030. Low idling and firm charter rates imply scrapping should remain low until market conditions weaken more materially. Passenger travel presents a more divided picture. European short-haul airlines face significant financial pressure because capacity growth has exceeded demand growth. Summer fares were broadly flat despite higher fuel prices, and Goldman Sachs believes capacity reductions are needed into winter. Its trackers show a modest recent improvement in fare momentum, but the report judges it insufficient to offset fuel-cost inflation. Early winter schedules indicate reduced but still positive short-haul capacity growth. By contrast, long-haul supply-demand conditions are better, particularly on the Atlantic, where capacity discipline and premium demand support ongoing fare increases; US airlines’ Atlantic pricing was up double digits year on year and October fares were trending higher. Other travel and infrastructure indicators are generally weaker. US air traffic has been lower year on year in recent months, Middle East airline schedules remain about 10% below last year, and Asia-Europe capacity growth has accelerated as Chinese carriers add seats, causing pricing momentum to fade. Airport trends are mixed to weak: ADP traffic growth remained negative in August, AENA showed summer growth but faces winter-schedule uncertainty, Frankfurt capacity outlook remains negative, and Gatwick traffic has been declining. Road traffic trends weakened in Q3, including French motorway indicators and Toronto congestion, although cross-Channel car and truck traffic has shown some recent improvement. Commodities shipping remains firmer. Crude tanker rates have strengthened on high shipping demand and constrained vessel supply, although the orderbook implies eventual fleet-growth acceleration. Dry-bulk rates are also firm, supported by Chinese commodity demand and higher fuel costs; the bulker orderbook is rising, with new orders at approximately 17% of fleet.

Analysis framework

The report tracks transport conditions through high-frequency trade volumes, port throughput, freight yields and rates, vessel capacity and congestion, airline schedules and fares, passenger traffic, and road-traffic indicators. It compares demand with capacity and uses regional and route-level data to distinguish underlying activity from weather- and disruption-related distortions.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Demand-versus-capacity analysis across freight shipping and aviation

  The report links trade, restocking and technology shipments to freight demand, then compares them with vessel, airline and network capacity to explain rates, yields and earnings conditions.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Volume, rate and utilization tracking

  Goldman Sachs separates cargo and passenger volumes from freight rates, fares, yields and load factors to assess whether transport-market strength is driven by demand, capacity constraints or disruption.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Goods production, inventories and technology demand flowing into transport markets

  The report connects manufacturing activity, US restocking and datacenter-related technology shipments to air cargo, ocean freight and related transport-sector conditions.

Key data

• Q3 air-cargo volume growth4-5% yoyGoldman Sachs’ expected overall air-cargo growth rate for Q3.
• China port-volume growth+6% yoySeptember-to-date recovery after typhoon-related disruption.
• European truck traffic+1.2% yoy3Q26-to-date modest improvement after a trough in the second half of the prior year.
• Air-cargo yields>20% yoyRates remained elevated despite capacity reactivation.
• Suez-routed liner services1/3 of servicesThe report identifies this as a new summer trend that should help disruptions fade.
• China and Asia ex-China port congestionc.2% of global capacityIncrease during the summer amid high volumes and typhoons.
• Middle East airline schedulesc.10% below last yearSchedules remained below prior-year levels and were revised down recently.
• Bulker new ordersc.17% of fleetRising orderbook points to future dry-bulk fleet expansion.

Impact & implications

The report indicates a favorable near-term operating backdrop for freight and logistics as demand and disrupted effective capacity support volumes and pricing. It expects the container-rate tailwind to moderate rather than collapse into year-end, while identifying European short-haul airline economics as the most pressured major transport segment because pricing has not kept pace with fuel costs.

Risks

• Container rates could decline as climate-related disruptions fade and more services reroute through the Suez Canal.
• The record container-vessel orderbook for 2027-30 could increase future supply pressure.
• European short-haul airlines face continued margin pressure if capacity remains above demand and fares cannot offset higher fuel costs.
• Shipping remains a variable and cyclical business, making forecasting inherently uncertain.

What to watch

• The pace at which China port activity recovers from typhoons and congestion.
• US restocking trends and peak-season import schedules.
• Air-cargo demand from technology and datacenter-related shipments.
• Container-network disruption, Suez Canal rerouting and congestion in China and Southeast Asia.
• European short-haul capacity cuts and whether fare momentum becomes sufficient to recover fuel costs.
• Atlantic airline capacity discipline and premium-demand trends.