Institutional Research

The report argues that China can sustain roughly 22% ESS installation CAGR through 2030, while overseas demand, particularly Europe, remains a major growth driver. It views reported weak 1H26 China installation data as distorted by reporting lags and back-end-loaded project delivery rather than a demand reversal.

• China ESS installations are forecast to grow at about 22% CAGR through 2030.
• China’s 2030 renewable mix is assumed to reach about 33%, with cumulative ESS attachment rising to about 18%.
• European peak-to-trough power-price spreads are about EUR105/MWh, versus a long-term average of about EUR50/MWh.
• Global ESS installations are forecast at 508GWh in 2026 and 664GWh in 2027.
• J.P. Morgan expects China ESS battery shipments to grow about 20% year on year in 2027, ahead of expectations for little or no growth.
• The report prefers CATL-A/H, Sungrow and Deye within its ESS value-chain coverage.

The report argues that synchronized developed-market rate hikes reflect resilient growth and sticky inflation rather than a destabilizing loss of policy credibility. It remains constructive on global equities and credit while favoring selected rate, FX, commodity and emerging-market positions.

• The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.0%; J.P. Morgan expects another 25bp hike in December.
• Year-end Treasury targets were raised to 4.70% for the 2Y and 5.05% for the 10Y.
• The institution reiterates a constructive global-equity view, favoring Large Cap, Quality Growth, Technology and Communication Services.
• Brent above $100/bbl is viewed as difficult to sustain because inventories, surplus supply and demand destruction should rebalance the market.
• European IG is preferred to HY, while EM credit is Marketweight overall but retains selected sovereign overweights.

UBS lowers 2027-28E EPS by 7% and reduces its price target from Won195,000 to Won170,000, principally reflecting a stronger won and wider industry pressures. It nevertheless retains Buy, citing xEV momentum, low valuation, cash generation and net cash.

• Q326E operating profit is forecast at Won2.5trn, 5% below consensus.
• A 1% won appreciation is estimated to reduce annual operating profit by 2.7%.
• Hybrid and BEV sales are up 46% and 73% year-to-date, respectively.
• The target P/E multiple falls from 8.7x to 8.1x on 2027E earnings.
• UBS cites a 5.8x 2027E P/E, 10.4% 2027E FCF yield and net cash equal to 46% of market capitalization.

Goldman Sachs expects Kematek's expanding ceramic-heater, electrostatic-chuck and SiC component capacity to support growth from 2H26 through 2027. Lower new-product yields drove a substantial forecast and target-price reset, but the firm retains Buy with a Rmb141 target.

• 2Q26 revenue was Rmb322m, up 19% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, but 4% below Goldman Sachs' forecast.
• 2Q26 net income was Rmb52m, up 14% quarter-on-quarter but down 38% year-on-year and 53% below forecast.
• New-product yields were weaker than expected, leading to lower revenue, margin and net-income forecasts for 2026E-30E.
• The 12-month target price falls to Rmb141 from Rmb164, while Buy is maintained.

The model projects end-2026 headline HICP inflation at 3.85% year-on-year and core inflation at 2.62%, with the latter having firmed again since August. Goldman Sachs says the nearcast is close to its official forecast but identifies upside risk in vehicles, appliances and ICT equipment.

• The model incorporates more than 600 domestic and global price-related variables and refreshes daily.
• End-2026 headline inflation has risen from below 2% in February to 3.85% currently.
• End-2026 core inflation is projected at 2.62%, versus around 2% before the Middle East war.
• Historical testing showed forecast gains over simple benchmarks at 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons.

Goldman Sachs expects Shengyi Tech to benefit from rapid expansion in the AI copper-clad laminate market, supported by technology upgrades, a full order book and capacity additions. The firm maintains a Rmb249 12-month target price, implying 73.0% upside from the stated price basis.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts AI CCL value TAM growth of 181%/217%/115% year-on-year in 2026E/2027E/2028E, reaching US$47.5bn in 2028E.
• Shengyi's Thailand CCL plant is expected to begin production in September 2026, with additional China capacity planned for 2027E.
• 3Q26E revenue is forecast at Rmb13bn, up 59% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margin above 30%.
• The report models 33% net-income CAGR for 2026-30E.
• The Rmb249 target price is based on a 50.4x 2027E target P/E.

JPMorgan’s U.S. survey finds substantial remaining adoption potential for fintech small-dollar loans, which are primarily used for essential spending. The report sees Cash App Borrow’s pricing and term changes as potentially accretive to transaction profit, subject to origination and credit-loss outcomes.

• SDL originations are growing more than 80% year over year and already exceed U.S. POS installment-financing originations.
• Only 25% of surveyed adults used an SDL in the prior six months, versus 57% awareness.
• Cash App Borrow and Chime MyPay are the most popular providers; Dave is more often viewed as a backup option.
• Higher loan limits and reliable approvals matter more to preference than fees.
• Cash App’s move from four- to six-week repayment terms and from a 5% to 7.5% revenue take rate is expected to lift variable profit.

The report expects low FX volatility overall, with US economic resilience supporting the dollar but policy uncertainty limiting sustained upside. It highlights constructive CNY, MYR, NGN, KZT and selected HUF exposures while identifying Sterling, Thai baht and some European currencies as more vulnerable.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/CNY at 6.40 in 12 months and recommends short SGD/CNH.
• It prefers long MYR/THB, targeting 8.60 with a 7.80 stop-loss.
• USD/NGN forecasts were revised to 1,300 and 1,275 at three and six months, respectively.
• The target for long TRY, NGN and KZT versus USD was raised to 12% from 10%.

Bernstein sees earnings recovery spreading across Asia but warns that Japan, Korea, Taiwan and leading momentum/growth cohorts are increasingly vulnerable to slower revision momentum. It retains a barbell approach combining selective winners with improving laggards.

• Earnings revisions have broadened beyond technology into industrials, financials, healthcare and consumer sectors.
• Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand show extreme or record-high expectations, reducing scope for further tactical support.
• India and China are showing early recovery signals and potentially greater room for upgrades.
• Momentum and growth revisions are extreme, particularly in Japan, Korea and Taiwan; Bernstein favors growth over simply chasing momentum.

Goldman Sachs argues that China is becoming a larger source of global drug innovation, licensing and platform partnerships, especially in oncology, ADCs, bispecifics, cell therapy and RNAi. The report highlights growing clinical validation and deal activity while tracking potential US-China regulatory restrictions and proof that China-generated data translate globally.

• $118bn of China out-licensing deals year to date versus $136bn for full-year 2025.
• China-originated assets represented 37% of global clinical-stage drugs and 51% of new molecular entities entering the clinic year to date.
• Oncology led China out-licensing with 51 deals year to date; immunology and inflammation accounted for 29 of 128 deals.
• China’s share is particularly high in complex modalities, including 57% of ADCs, 59% of bispecifics, 54% of cell therapies and 70% of RNAi/PROTAC/radioligand therapies entering the clinic globally.
• Potential US outbound-investment screening, clinical-data restrictions and Chinese controls on cross-border structures are key policy risks.