Institutional Research

Goldman Sachs expects Korea's semiconductor upcycle to generate an unprecedented pool of corporate cash, potentially supporting money markets and KTBs in 2027. The domestic effect depends on repatriation and is offset in places by weak household deposits, insurer cash needs and elevated equity-related leverage.

• Major Korean semiconductor firms are projected to generate about KRW150trn of net cash in 2026 and more than KRW300trn in 2027.
• Using a historical roughly 60% foreign-affiliate earnings repatriation ratio implies illustrative domestic inflows of about 3% of GDP in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.
• Corporate inflows have lifted deposits and MMFs, but falling household deposits have limited the easing in bank funding conditions.
• Insurers' elevated policy surrenders and lending demand have constrained incremental KTB purchases, especially at the long end.
• Goldman Sachs sees a more supportive KTB demand-supply backdrop in 2027, with particular support at the front end.

The report argues that technology-led manufacturing and exports can support headline growth, but weak employment, household income, consumption and broad property demand are likely to persist. It forecasts 4.5% real GDP growth for 2026, at the bottom of the government’s 4.5–5.0% target range.

• August industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% year on year, while retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%.
• Large-retailer sales fell almost 4% year on year in August, versus 3% growth reported for small retailers.
• The report expects continued property-price weakness outside top-tier cities and selected premium segments.
• It forecasts Q3 and Q4 real GDP growth of 4.4% year on year and full-year 2026 growth of 4.5%.
• Gradual RMB appreciation, further export-rebate cuts and a lower 2027 growth target are presented as likely policy paths.

Mixed August activity data led Goldman Sachs to reduce its Q3, Q4 and full-year 2026 China GDP forecasts. The report also outlines Hong Kong’s 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan and expects both Beijing and Washington to seek relative stability ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting.

• Q3 and Q4 real GDP growth forecasts were lowered from 4.6% year-on-year to 4.4%.
• The 2026 full-year real GDP forecast was reduced from 4.6% to 4.5%.
• Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year in August, while retail sales and fixed-asset investment disappointed.
• Hong Kong’s plan targets innovation spending of 3% of GDP and manufacturing/new-industrialization value-added of 5.5% of GDP.
• Goldman Sachs expects a broad US-China agreement to remain unlikely despite efforts to preserve relative stability.

Nomura says reports that the US Treasury is developing rules permitting US pharma companies to in-license from Chinese counterparts provide further reassurance on cross-Pacific life-science collaboration. The firm expects the favorable environment to support Chinese pharmaceutical, biotech and indirectly CRDMO companies.

• Reuters reported on 18 September that the US Treasury Department is developing rules to permit US pharmaceutical companies to pursue in-licensing agreements with Chinese counterparts.
• China out-licensing completed a record 81 transactions worth USD110bn in 1H26, according to NMPA data.
• Nomura notes that half of US in-licensing deals involved Chinese companies, according to Reuters.
• The report sees warmer US-China life-sciences relations as indirectly beneficial for Chinese CRDMOs after geopolitical headwinds in 2024-2025.

Goldman Sachs sees winter TTF and JKM prices reaching 105 EUR/MWh and $35/mmBtu if Persian Gulf LNG exports fail to improve meaningfully. It nevertheless expects new US LNG project commitments to deepen the expected global oversupply in 2030-2035.

• The upside winter scenario assumes Persian Gulf LNG exports remain low rather than gradually recovering.
• US flexible LNG cargoes are currently favoring Europe, though a wider JKM-TTF spread could redirect supply to Asia.
• Goldman Sachs expects most incremental LNG demand destruction to occur in Asia, particularly industry.
• The institution lowered its 2030-2035 average forecasts to 19 EUR/MWh for TTF and $7.15/mmBtu for JKM.
• Supply diversification is expected to favor US LNG, while EU methane rules may constrain European long-term contracting.

JPMorgan finds rapidly expanding Week 2 delivery lead times for Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro models, bringing the US and Europe broadly in line with the prior-year launch cycle. China remains below last year despite a narrowing gap for the Pro model.

• Global Week 2 delivery times averaged 23 days for iPhone 18 Pro and 30 days for Pro Max, versus 24 and 31 days for the prior-year models.
• US lead times matched last year at 21 days for Pro and 28 days for Pro Max.
• China remained below prior year at 27 and 33 days, versus 30 and 37 days for the iPhone 17 Pro models.
• JPMorgan identifies Week 3 lead-time moderation and November production-plan feedback as key demand signals.

The report maintains Buy and a $640 12-month target, citing stronger enterprise AI demand, more flexible capex, improving unit economics and Microsoft's multi-model platform position.

• Fourth-quarter RPO increased by $51 billion quarter-on-quarter, entirely from enterprise rather than frontier-lab bookings.
• Long-dated capex has fallen from roughly 50% to roughly 33% of the mix, increasing flexibility over shorter-dated spending.
• Goldman Sachs argues AI unit economics are healthier than at the comparable stage of the original cloud cycle.
• The institution maintains its $640 target based on a 28x P/E multiple on next-12-month adjusted net income.

The report cuts near-term earnings estimates after weak smartphone demand, but expects 3Q26 revenue to rise 34% QoQ and sees liquid cooling, edge AI and robotics driving a 154% net-income CAGR in 2026-28E. The 12-month target price is reduced to Rmb18.10 from Rmb21.20.

• 2Q26 revenue was Rmb12.506bn, 14% below Goldman Sachs estimates; net income was Rmb372mn, 31% below estimates.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts 3Q26 revenue growth of 34% QoQ, supported by a major smartphone customer's new-model launch.
• 2026E-28E revenue estimates are cut by 8%, 7% and 1%; net-income estimates change by -6%, -7% and +8%.
• The report expects net income to grow at a 154% CAGR over 2026-28E.
• The target price is based on 29.5x 2027E EPS, versus 29.0x previously.

Goldman Sachs expects Asian equities to withstand moderately higher rates if growth remains resilient, while maintaining a 1,120 12-month target for MXAPJ from 880. The report highlights Taiwan and technology strength, differentiated Indian AI-enabler earnings growth, and persistent risks from sharp yield moves and foreign selling.

• MXAPJ fell 0.4% for the week; Taiwan gained 2%, while the Philippines fell 5%.
• EM Asia ex-China recorded US$7.4bn of weekly outflows, led by Korea at US$6.5bn.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts MXAPJ at 1,120 in 12 months, versus 880 currently.
• India's 42 AI Enablers rose about 60% year-to-date while the Nifty fell 12%.
• The report expects another 25bp Fed hike in October, followed by a pause through the first half of 2027.
• A sharp rise in yields—more than 1.5 standard deviations above historical norms—would pose a greater liquidity and market-performance risk.

UBS upgraded Union Pacific to Buy on improving 2027 earnings visibility and merger optionality, while remaining positive on railroads, truckload brokers and ocean-forwarding exposure. The main negative discussion centers on JBHT's surprising third-quarter cost guidance and uncertain margin recovery.

• UBS upgraded UNP to Buy from Neutral, citing 3%-4% volume growth, stronger 2027 pricing and EPS expectations 5% above consensus.
• The firm views potential Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger approval as additional upside optionality.
• August interstate for-hire CDL registrations fell 0.7% month on month after roughly 1% increases in June and July.
• Drewry's World Container Index stood at $4,500 per 40-foot container on September 17, supporting EXPD and CHRW.
• JBHT's downside third-quarter commentary has increased investor focus on the timing and pace of margin improvement.