Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SPCX): Bernstein views Starship Flight 14 as a major orbital milestone supporting SpaceX's long-term data-center and Starlink thesis

Overview

Bernstein assesses SpaceX's Starship Flight 14 as a largely successful step toward a fully reusable launch system. The report argues that the mission advances the longer-term opportunity in Starlink connectivity and orbital data centers, while emphasizing that heat-shield performance, second-stage recovery and launch cadence remain critical execution tests.

Core views

Bernstein considers Starship Flight 14 an important advance because the vehicle reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. The booster completed a successful splashdown, while the second stage lost one engine; SpaceX nevertheless proceeded because the affected engine was not required for the rest of the flight. The mission completed roughly two Earth orbits rather than the six originally planned and ended with a Northern Pacific splashdown after about three hours. Bernstein therefore characterizes the flight as largely successful despite the shortened trajectory and engine issue. The V3 deployment is significant to the Connectivity business. Bernstein states that each V3 satellite provides 1 Tbps of capacity, approximately 10 times that of a current V2 mini satellite. The satellites were deployed at 277 km and are expected to raise themselves to about 350 km, the planned constellation altitude. Once Starship is fully operational, Bernstein expects it to be capable of carrying 60 V3 satellites per launch rather than the 26 deployed on Flight 14. The firm sees Starlink as a high-value segment, although it identifies orbital data centers as the principal long-term source of value creation. The decisive technical requirement is full reusability of both Starship stages. Bernstein highlights the heat shield on second-stage reentry as the immediate item to assess, including tiles reused from Launch 13. Two of 33 booster engines failed on Flight 14, alongside the second-stage engine failure, and the causes were not yet known. The FAA did not view the failures as sufficiently abnormal to require an investigation, but Bernstein expects the results to influence decisions around Flight 15. A second-stage catch could occur on Launch 15, but that depends on SpaceX's assessment of Flight 14 and FAA approval; Bernstein places second-stage reuse in 2027. Bernstein's operating outlook is constructive but more conservative than the company's stated timetable. It expects Starship launches to approach 4,000 in 2031, more than a factor of two below the company target. SpaceX has stated an ambition of one launch per day by the end of 2027, whereas Bernstein does not expect that rate until the end of 2029. The firm still believes this slower path is sufficient to support an attractive equity case. In the near term, launches are expected to expand the Starlink constellation; by 2030, orbital data centers are expected to account for most launches. Bernstein also forecasts 27 GW of orbital compute capacity to be added in 2031 alone, while noting that its capacity estimates remain well below the company's projections. The valuation rests on this long-duration opportunity rather than near-term launch activity alone. Bernstein applies a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA approach to 2031 EBITDA, using a sum-of-the-parts valuation based on 2030 values and discounting each segment back to mid-2027 to derive the one-year $248 target price. The firm explains that a valuation based on 2028 EBITDA would omit the orbital-data-center business and capture only space launch, terrestrial compute and near-term Starlink. Its forecasts show total revenue rising from $46.665 billion in 2026E to $652.812 billion in 2031E and adjusted EBITDA increasing from $21.360 billion to $485.873 billion over the same period.

Analysis framework

Bernstein evaluates the Flight 14 technical outcome, links Starship performance and reusability to launch cadence and Starlink deployment, then assesses the longer-term transition toward orbital data centers. Its target price uses segment-level forecasts and a long-dated EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts valuation discounted back to mid-2027.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Bernstein values SpaceX's segments separately using 2030 values, then discounts them back to mid-2027 to produce its one-year target price.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA valuation

  12-month forward EV/EBITDA applied to 2031 EBITDA

  The firm uses 2031 EBITDA because it believes the main value driver, orbital data centers, would not be reflected in a nearer-term EBITDA multiple.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SPCX)

  Primary covered company; its value case is linked to Starship reuse, Starlink expansion and orbital data centers.

  Strengths

  Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 V3 satellites; Bernstein sees substantial value in Connectivity and the greatest value creation in orbital data centers.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein expects a slower launch ramp than the company has targeted.

  Comparison

  Bernstein's expected launch rate is more than a factor of two below the company's target; it expects one launch per day only by end-2029 versus the company's end-2027 objective.

  Risks

  Full reusability, launch capacity growth, semiconductor supply, launch incidents, regulation and compute-demand uncertainty could impair the thesis.

Key data

• Flight 14 orbital resultFirst successful Starship orbital mission; 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployedThe mission lasted about three hours and completed roughly two orbits rather than the planned six.
• Starlink V3 capacity1 Tbps per satelliteApproximately 10 times the capacity of a current V2 mini satellite.
• Expected 2031 Starship launchesNearly 4,000Bernstein's forecast is more than a factor of two below the company's stated target.
• Expected orbital compute capacity added in 203127 GWBernstein's estimate is below the company's projection.
• Total revenue forecast$46.665 billion in 2026E; $652.812 billion in 2031EBernstein estimates.
• Adjusted EBITDA forecast$21.360 billion in 2026E; $485.873 billion in 2031EBernstein estimates.

Impact & implications

The report argues that Flight 14 improves confidence in Starship's development path, but the investment case still depends on turning technical progress into full reusability and much higher launch cadence. Successful execution would support Starlink expansion and enable the orbital-data-center opportunity underlying Bernstein's long-dated valuation.

Risks

• SpaceX may be unable to expand Starship launch capacity as required because that depends on full reusability.
• Orbital data centers may not be operationalized at the scale assumed in the valuation.
• Semiconductor availability and other supply-chain constraints could limit execution.
• Launch incidents or regulatory restrictions could delay the program.
• Compute demand could be weaker than expected.

What to watch

• The condition of Starship's second-stage heat shield following Flight 14.
• The cause and implications of the three engine failures during Flight 14.
• Whether Flight 15 includes a second-stage catch and obtains FAA approval.
• Progress toward second-stage reuse in 2027 and the projected launch-rate ramp.
• The transition of Starship launches from Starlink deployment toward orbital data centers around 2030.