Starship Flight 13 shows the SpaceX program continues to advance according to the base case

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's event commentary on SpaceX Starship Flight 13. The report believes that although the first launch attempt abort was not ideal in appearance, the actual flight results of Flight 13 demonstrated solid progress in the Starship program, especially with the upper-stage Ship completing its primary objectives, completing full reentry and a soft splashdown, and the first deployment of functional Starlink V3 satellites via Starship.

Core views

The core view is that Starship is still progressing according to Deutsche Bank's base case. Positive factors include strong ascent and hot-stage separation performance, the first high-thrust boostback burn completed by the V3 booster, successful deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites, successful restart of a single Raptor engine in space, and Ship 40 completing full reentry under higher dynamic pressure while providing high-quality heat shield data. The main shortcoming was that only some engines relit during the Super Heavy landing burn, with the hard splashdown issue similar to Flight 12, and this remains the key open technical issue for the first-stage booster.

Analysis framework

The report uses a mission debrief-style analytical approach, dividing Flight 13 into four parts: the cause of the first launch abort, mission successes, areas needing improvement, and the next flight's milestones, while mapping each technical node to its investment implications for Starship reusability, orbital mission capability, and Starlink V3 deployment capability.

Methodology notes

• Event-driven company researchFlight test milestone debrief

  Assess project progress based on the completion of key mission objectives

  The report focuses on whether milestones such as launch abort, engine ignition, hot-stage separation, boostback, satellite deployment, in-space restart, reentry, and splashdown met planned objectives, thereby judging whether the Starship program has deviated from the base case.

• Technology risk assessmentReusable rocket system risk decomposition

  Break risks down into the first-stage booster, upper-stage spacecraft, heat shield, and mission payload capability

  The report believes Ship and Starlink V3 deployment performed strongly, while the incomplete relight during the Super Heavy landing burn remains the main unresolved technical issue for the first-stage booster; the heat shield is still in the iterative stage and requires continued collection of optical and telemetry data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SPCX.OQ

  Research target

  Strengths

  Starship Flight 13 showed that the upper-stage Ship completed its primary objectives, Starlink V3 satellites were successfully deployed, and an in-space Raptor restart succeeded, supporting validation of the program's long-term capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  Engine relight during the Super Heavy landing burn was incomplete, resulting in a hard splashdown, indicating that first-stage booster recovery is still not fully solved.

  Comparison

  Similar to Flight 12, Flight 13 still exposed booster landing-burn issues, but achieved clearer progress in Ship full reentry, heat shield observation, and functional Starlink V3 deployment.

  Risks

  Heat shield maturity, engine relight reliability, the high technical difficulty of tower-arm catching Ship, flight test cadence, and regulatory/weather delays.

• Starlink V3

  SpaceX growth business related to Starship payload capability

  Strengths

  Flight 13 marked the first deployment of functional next-generation V3 satellites, with 20 satellites completing deployment, link establishment, and telemetry downlink.

  Weaknesses

  These satellites reentered and burned up about 20 minutes later, so this remained a test validation rather than an operational deployment.

  Comparison

  Compared with simulator payloads, functional Starlink V3 deployment better validates Starship's real carrying capability for the next-generation satellite constellation.

  Risks

  Starship flight cadence, satellite deployment stability, and the need for further validation of follow-on orbital missions and full reusability capability.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report cover page lists Rating Buy.
• Target priceUSD 255.00The pricing table shows Price Target 255.00.
• Current priceUSD 115.07The pricing table shows Price at 24 Jul 2026 as USD 115.07.
• Implied upsideapproximately 121.6%Calculated based on the USD 255.00 target price and USD 115.07 current price.
• Report date2026-07-27The report text lists Date 27 July 2026.
• Starlink V3 deployment20 satellitesFlight 13 successfully deployed 20 functional next-generation V3 satellites.
• Super Heavy engines33 RaptorsIn the first launch attempt, 4 did not ignite and another 2 showed anomalous liquid oxygen turbopump response; during the actual flight ascent, all 33 engines performed well.
• Ship engines6The report states that Ship's 6 engines performed well during powered flight.
• Next flight windowlate August or SeptemberDeutsche Bank estimates the target window for Flight 14 as late August or September.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, Flight 13 supports Deutsche Bank's positive view on SpaceX: Starship's upper-stage spacecraft, satellite deployment, and orbital mission capability continue to be validated, and even with only partial reusability achieved, Starship can already deploy Starlink V3. If Flight 14 successfully attempts a tower-arm catch of Ship, it would mark an important milestone for the program and could strengthen market confidence in Starship's path to full reusability.

Risks

• Only some engines successfully relit during the Super Heavy landing burn, and the hard splashdown issue remains the main open technical item.
• The heat shield is still being iterated and is viewed by the report as one of the higher-risk and lower-maturity Starship components.
• The next attempt to use the Mechazilla tower arms to catch Ship is highly technically challenging, involving energy, speed, flip maneuver, and error-tolerance challenges.
• The launch window may be affected by weather; the July 23 attempt was already delayed by weather to preserve ascent-phase visual coverage of the heat shield.
• Deutsche Bank disclosed that it has investment banking business or service relationships with SpaceX, and investors should pay attention to potential conflict-of-interest disclosures.

What to watch

• Whether the Flight 13 mission data review uncovers new technical issues.
• Whether Flight 14 takes place in late August or September, and whether it attempts the first tower-arm catch of Ship.
• Whether Super Heavy landing-burn relight reliability improves, especially the number of relights among the 13 landing-related engines.
• The telemetry, imagery, and material damage assessment results for Ship's heat shield after full reentry.
• Whether Starlink V3 can achieve orbital missions closer to operational deployment in subsequent Starship flights.