Starship Flight 13 earned an A-, and Flight 14's Ship catch could become the next key catalyst

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley’s event commentary and scorecard on SpaceX Starship Flight 13. The conclusion is positive overall: Flight 13 was not flawless, but it made important progress in launch preparation, ascent, hot staging separation, Starlink V3 payload deployment, space maneuvers and Raptor reignition, as well as ship reentry and soft splashdown. The report believes these results increase investor confidence in Starship’s move toward operationalization and make Flight 14’s possible first Ship catch the next observable upside catalyst.

Core views

The core view is that the market may remain cautious because of the V3 booster’s anomalous landing burn, but this issue needs to be understood in context: Flight 13 was only the second landing attempt for the V3 booster and the all-new Raptor 3 propulsion system, and compared with Flight 12, where the booster was lost before entering the landing phase, Flight 13 clearly moved a step forward. The report gives Flight 13 an overall qualitative grade of A- and explicitly states that the overall stock impact is positive. At the same time, the first lockup release after the August 4 earnings report remains a short-term overhang that may keep some potential longs on the sidelines.

Analysis framework

The report uses a phased scorecard approach, breaking Flight 13 into seven segments: countdown and launch preparation, liftoff and ascent, hot staging separation, boostback and landing burn, payload deployment, space maneuvers and Raptor reignition, and ship reentry, thermal protection, and splashdown. Each segment is qualitatively assessed based on mission completion, progress versus Flight 12, and implications for subsequent tower-arm capture and operationalization, and is further mapped to the catalyst path for subsequent Flight 14 and Flight 15.

Methodology notes

• event_analysisStarship Flight Report Card

  Phased qualitative scoring

  The report breaks a test flight into seven key flight stages and rates each separately, ultimately forming an overall qualitative conclusion of A- to judge the impact of technical progress on stock sentiment.

• Valuation methodsSum-of-the-Parts

  Segmented valuation

  The $300 target price comes from the sum of the parts for Space, Connectivity, X & Grok, and Enterprise AI, contributing $8, $128, $12, and $152 respectively.

• model_frameworkMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Institutional model framework

  The report notes that unless otherwise indicated, relevant metrics are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework; price targets typically correspond to a 12-18 month time frame.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SpaceX equity / SPCX.US

  Directly covered target

  Strengths

  Overweight rating and $300 target price; multiple Flight 13 test-flight milestones increase confidence in Starship operationalization.

  Weaknesses

  The V3 booster’s anomalous final landing burn and the near-term lockup release may still weigh on long participation.

  Comparison

  Compared with Flight 12, Flight 13 showed clear progress in the booster reaching the landing phase, hot staging separation, Raptor reignition, and intact ship splashdown.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected Starship reuse cadence, slower Starlink user growth, financing needs or dilution, and regulatory delays.

• Starship program

  Core source of technical catalysts

  Strengths

  Flight 13 completed multiple key tasks, including ascent, separation, on-orbit ignition, and soft ship splashdown; Flight 14 may attempt a Ship catch for the first time.

  Weaknesses

  The V3 booster has not yet achieved a clean soft splashdown, and further validation is still needed before tower catch.

  Comparison

  If Flight 14 executes a Ship catch, it could become Starship’s first orbital flight attempt; Flight 15 may further attempt to catch both the Ship and the V3 booster in the same mission.

  Risks

  If follow-up data review uncovers issues, the pace or mission objectives of Flight 14 may be adjusted.

• Starlink V3 / Connectivity segment

  Key business expansion driver

  Strengths

  Flight 13 deployed 20 production-version Starlink V3 satellites for the first time, validating the arrays, antennas, and laser links.

  Weaknesses

  The V3 satellites on Flight 13 were a suborbital demonstration and reentered as planned about 20 minutes after deployment, without serving customers.

  Comparison

  If Flight 14 reaches orbit, it could theoretically deploy V3 into operational orbit for the first time, becoming a true operational deployment.

  Risks

  Insufficient Starship reuse cadence would slow Starlink V3 capacity expansion.

Key data

• Report date2026-07-27The timestamp on the first page of the main text is July 27, 2026 02:49 AM GMT.
• Flight 13 date2026-07-24The test flight was successfully conducted on July 24th.
• Overall rating for Flight 13A-Morgan Stanley said that if Flight 13 were graded, the overall score would be A-.
• Liftoff and ascentA+All 33 Super Heavy Raptors ignited, achieving full-thrust ascent with no engine-out.
• Hot staging separationA+Hot staging and interstage separation were clean, with no repeat of the approximately 90° flip seen in the Flight 12 booster failure.
• Boostback and landing burnC+The boostback was clean, but only about 5/13 engines ignited during the final landing burn, resulting in a hard splashdown.
• Starlink V3 payload deployment20 production-version Starlink V3 satellitesFirst deployment of production-version Starlink V3; arrays and antennas were deployed, laser links succeeded, and the satellites deorbited as planned.
• Raptor reignitionabout 39 minutes into flightA single-engine reignition was completed, making up for the maneuver test abandoned in Flight 12.
• Ship reentry and splashdownA+The ship passed peak heating and max-Q, achieving SpaceX’s softest splashdown to date, floating intact and transmitting telemetry back from the Indian Ocean.
• RatingOverweightThe stock is rated Overweight, with an Attractive industry view.
• Target price$300.00Target price history shows 300 on 2026-07-07, and the report table lists Price target $300.00.
• Closing price$115.07The report lists Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) $115.07.

Impact & implications

The direct implication for the stock is positive overall. The key significance of Flight 13 does not lie in a perfect test flight, but in the advancement of multiple technical gates along Starship’s path to operationalization: the V3 architecture, production-version Starlink V3 deployment, orbital-class mission capability, thermal protection imaging, and intact ship splashdown all provided incremental validation. If Flight 14 can attempt and complete the first Ship catch as Musk described, it could materially weaken bearish doubts about Starship’s reuse progress; if Flight 15 further attempts both a Ship catch and a V3 booster catch, expectations for reuse cadence and Starlink capacity expansion may continue to be revised upward.

Risks

• The first lockup release after the August 4 earnings report remains a short-term overhang that may keep some potential longs on the sidelines.
• The anomalous V3 booster landing burn shows that clean soft-splashdown validation is still needed before booster capture.
• If Starship reuse cadence falls short of expectations, it will weaken the Space and Connectivity growth assumptions embedded in the valuation.
• If Starlink user growth slows, it will affect the Connectivity segment valuation.
• Weaker-than-expected Enterprise AI monetization, timing and cost pressures around powering AI infrastructure, and rising capex or compute cost per watt would all pressure segment valuations.
• Increased financing needs or equity dilution, as well as regulatory delays, also pose downside risks.

What to watch

• Whether Flight 14 is executed around late Aug / early Sept, and whether the data review allows an attempted first Ship catch.
• Whether Flight 14 implies Starship’s first orbital flight attempt.
• Whether Flight 14 continues to send the V3 booster toward the water and achieves a cleaner soft splashdown.
• Whether Flight 14 deploys Starlink V3 into operational orbit for the first time and becomes a true operational deployment.
• Whether Flight 15 may attempt both a Ship catch and a V3 booster catch in the same mission.
• The impact of the August 4 post-earnings lockup release on the stock price and long participation.