Starship's 13th launch was scrubbed due to two engines failing to ignite; Bernstein believes the delay is not surprising

Overview

This report focuses on the cancellation of SpaceX Starship's 13th test flight and its investment implications. SpaceX had planned to conduct Starship's 13th flight on July 16, 2026, but the launch was scrubbed after two engines failed to ignite. The company then unloaded the propellant and prepared to replace the engines, targeting another attempt early next week. Bernstein believes this delay is not surprising and continues to maintain an Outperform rating and 239.00 USD target price on SPCX.

Core views

The core view is that Starship is the key enabler of SpaceX's future growth and the most important technical and operational variable in the company's valuation. The report argues that Starship's full two-stage reusability, significantly improved low Earth orbit payload capacity, and rapid turnaround capability could transform the economics of orbital access and support applications such as Starlink V3, space station modules, large telescopes, AI computing satellites, and orbital data centers. The near-term launch scrub does not appear to exceed Bernstein's schedule assumptions, but the challenges exposed by the 12th and 13th flights highlight the complexity of the work ahead and require continued evaluation of the impact on the subsequent timeline.

Analysis framework

The report combines event commentary, mission objective breakdown, assessment of Starship's technical capabilities, relative payload comparisons, and a long-term financial valuation framework. In the short term, it focuses on the engine replacement and relaunch window for the 13th flight; in the medium to long term, it assesses whether Starship can achieve high-frequency, fully reusable launches and support business expansion in areas such as Starlink V3 and orbital data centers. For valuation, it uses a sum-of-the-parts and forward EV/EBITDA framework, and discounts 2031 value back to mid-2027 to derive a one-year target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodSum-of-the-parts and forward EV/EBITDA

  Long-term segment valuation based on 2031 EBITDA

  The report states that it uses 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and applies it to 2031 EBITDA; because the core of the valuation comes from orbital data centers, using a shorter-term figure such as 2028 EBITDA would undervalue that business. Therefore, it first calculates 2030 valuation based on 2031 figures, then discounts it by segment to mid-2027, resulting in a one-year target price of 239.00 USD.

• Event analysisLaunch progress and technical risk assessment

  Assessing a single launch scrub within long-term Starship schedule assumptions

  The report believes launch scrubs are not uncommon, and Bernstein's model already assumes that Starship's launch cadence through 2031 lags the company's plan by more than a year. Therefore, this delay itself does not change the core view, but its impact on future test flights and the commercialization timeline still needs to be monitored.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SPCX.US

  Research target

  Strengths

  SpaceX has growth engines such as Starship, Starlink, and potential orbital data centers; if Starship achieves full reusability, it could significantly reduce launch costs and expand orbital deployment capacity.

  Weaknesses

  Starship has not yet entered commercial operation, test flights still carry technical uncertainty, and the current valuation is highly dependent on long-term growth realization.

  Comparison

  The report believes Starship's payload capacity and reusability goals give SpaceX space-asset launch capabilities far beyond potential competitors, and identifies China as the most important potential competitive direction.

  Risks

  Key risks include Starship launch capability expansion falling short of expectations, failure to achieve full reusability, inability to operationalize orbital data centers, semiconductor or supply chain constraints, launch accidents, regulatory restrictions, and computing demand coming in below expectations.

• Starlink V3

  An important payload and growth application for Starship

  Strengths

  The 13th flight's objectives included deploying 20 non-operational Starlink V3 satellites, and Starship's large payload capacity would help deploy the next-generation satellite constellation.

  Weaknesses

  The deployment pace of Starlink V3 depends on Starship's test-flight and commercialization progress.

  Comparison

  Compared with existing launch systems, Starship's greater payload capacity can improve the efficiency of large-scale constellation deployment.

  Risks

  If the Starship timeline is delayed, Starlink V3 progress may also be affected.

• Orbital data centers

  Core long-term valuation business assumption

  Strengths

  The report views orbital data centers as an important cornerstone of long-term valuation and forecasts that nearly 90% of Starship launches in 2031 will be dedicated to this area.

  Weaknesses

  The business is still at the stage of long-term concept and modeling, relying on Starship high-frequency launches, satellite/computing hardware supply, and real computing demand.

  Comparison

  The report argues that valuing the company using only 2028 EBITDA would mainly reflect launch, ground computing, and near-term Starlink, and would not fully capture the value of orbital data centers.

  Risks

  If orbital data centers cannot be operationalized, semiconductor supply is insufficient, or computing demand is lower than expected, valuation realization would be constrained.

Key data

• RatingOutperformBernstein's stock rating on SPCX.
• Target price239.00 USDThe one-year target price for SpaceX given in the report.
• Closing price131.11 USDSPCX closing price as of 2026-07-16.
• Implied upside82%The upside calculated based on the closing price and target price.
• Market capitalization1,725.30 USD bnMarket capitalization disclosed in the report table.
• Enterprise value1,738.94 USD bnEV disclosed in the report table.
• Starship 2031 launch forecast3,543 timesBernstein forecasts the number of Starship launches in 2031, nearly 90% of which would be used for orbital data centers.
• Starship V3 low Earth orbit payloadapproximately 100 metric tonsThe report states that the V3 design has low Earth orbit payload capacity of about 100 tons, with future V4 expandable to about 200 tons.
• Number of Raptor engines39The Starship V3 configuration includes 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster and 6 on the upper-stage ship.
• Starship project investment>15bn USDThe report states that SpaceX has invested or plans to invest more than USD 15 billion in Starship development.
• 2027E revenue84,990 USD m2027E revenue disclosed in the report's financial table.
• 2027E adjusted EBITDA43,447 USD m2027E adjusted EBITDA disclosed in the report's financial table.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that a single test flight scrub has limited impact on Bernstein's long-term investment framework, because its model already includes schedule slippage assumptions; however, Starship has extremely high valuation leverage for SpaceX. If it achieves high-frequency reusable launches, it would significantly strengthen Starlink V3, orbital data center, and deep-space mission capabilities. Conversely, if engine, reusability, regulatory, or supply chain issues cause major delays, SpaceX's growth path and realization of the target price would face pressure.

Risks

• Starship's launch capability needs to increase substantially over time and depends on the engineering realization of full two-stage reusability.
• Starship is the key enabler of SpaceX's future growth, but also a single-point risk; major delays could affect the entire SpaceX ecosystem.
• Orbital data centers must be operationalized to support the report's long-term valuation framework.
• Semiconductor supply and other supply chain issues may limit deployment of AI computing satellites or orbital data centers.
• Launch accidents and regulatory restrictions may slow Starship test flights, commercialization, and the pace of high-frequency launches.
• If computing demand is lower than market expectations, the growth assumptions related to orbital data centers will face downside revision risk.

What to watch

• Whether the renewed attempt for Starship's 13th launch takes place as scheduled early next week.
• Whether replacing the two engines reveals broader reliability issues with Raptor or the launch system.
• Whether the 13th flight completes objectives such as ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, landing burn, Starlink V3 deployment, on-orbit relight of a single Raptor engine, and controlled splashdown on reentry.
• The completion status of the next three Starship test flights and their impact on the commercialization timeline.
• Whether SpaceX can advance Starship from the test-flight stage to high-frequency, fully reusable, and rapid-turnaround operations.
• Whether deployment of Starlink V3, orbital data centers, and AI computing satellites progresses in line with the long-term model.