Ninebot Ltd (689009) Report Interpretation

Overview

This earnings review argues that Ninebot’s 2Q26 performance was stronger than expected as robotic lawn mowers accelerated growth, while operating-profit recovery exceeded expectations despite cost inflation and foreign-exchange losses. Goldman Sachs retains Buy and bases its Rmb62 target price on a 16x exit P/E multiple on 2028E EPS.

Core views

Ninebot reported above-expectation 2Q26 results after the market close on 10 August. In 1H26, revenue and net profit were Rmb14,358mn and Rmb1,008mn, respectively, up 22% and down 19% year on year. The second quarter marked a substantial improvement: implied revenue and net-profit growth reached 28% and 2% year on year, compared with 15% and negative 55% in 1Q26. Revenue and net profit were 1% and 8% above Goldman Sachs estimates, while core operating profit grew 22% year on year after declining 22% in 1Q26. The report views this as evidence that Ninebot can continue to gain share despite weak industry demand, with more favorable industry conditions and easing cyclicality apparent in 2Q. The principal driver of the revenue acceleration was the robot business, mainly robotic lawn mowers. Revenue in this business rose about 120% year on year in 1H26, surpassing management’s annual guidance and Goldman Sachs’ expectation for growth to double. The report attributes the strength to new-product sales and says the outcome implies sequential acceleration during the 2Q peak season. It frames robotic lawn mowers as a structural adoption opportunity versus traditional alternatives, where Ninebot is positioned to gain share through its product portfolio, brand and offline-channel presence. Electric two-wheelers also continued to outperform the industry. Ninebot recorded positive year-on-year growth in 2Q, with 1H sales and volume up 10% and 19%, respectively, while industry volume fell 13%. Although growth moderated sequentially against a high base, Goldman Sachs expects it to recover in 3Q as new-product revenue contribution increases. Domestic E2W shipments exceeded 13mn by the end of July, which the report interprets as indicating further growth acceleration into 3Q26. Electric scooters and off-road vehicles retained robust momentum, growing more than 10% and about 30% year on year in 2Q, respectively. Consumer electric-scooter sales rose 27%, supported by strong European demand and Ninebot’s market-share gains. Profitability beat expectations despite pressure from costs and currency. Second-quarter gross and net margins declined 1.0 percentage point and 2.4 percentage points year on year to 20.0% and 9.5%, mainly because of cost inflation and euro-related foreign-exchange losses. A more favorable mix from higher-margin robotic lawn mowers partly offset these pressures. The FX drag roughly halved sequentially to about Rmb120mn in 2Q, which Goldman Sachs attributes to lower exposure and enhanced hedging. In 1H, E2W and robot-business gross margins fell 6.5 percentage points and 7.7 percentage points to 17.2% and 46.6%, respectively, due to higher costs; electric scooters and off-road vehicles achieved margin expansion through better scale economies. The company is also increasing R&D intensity in E2W and robotic lawn mowers to support future growth, especially overseas. Goldman Sachs’ longer-term thesis combines domestic E2W share gains, increasing membership-fee contribution, and dual-brand channel and product expansion with rapid robotic-lawn-mower growth. It also sees near-term revenue and profit opportunities from e-bikes in developed markets, supported by policy-led electrification and consumer preference for environmentally friendly products. Over the medium to long term, it identifies ASEAN as a further opportunity because of large internal-combustion two-wheeler ownership, low current E2W adoption and policy support for electrification. The Rmb62 12-month target price applies a 16x exit P/E multiple to 2028E EPS and discounts it back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs compares reported 2Q26 results with its estimates and prior-quarter trends, then traces revenue and margin outcomes by business line. Its investment case links product launches, market-share gains, mix, cost and FX effects to earnings recovery, and values the company using an exit P/E multiple on 2028E EPS discounted to 2027E.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Exit P/E valuation

  Goldman Sachs applies a 16x exit P/E multiple to its 2028E EPS forecast, then discounts the result back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity to derive the Rmb62 target price.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Business-line growth and margin analysis

  The report separates sales and volume growth in E2W and evaluates growth, gross margins and mix effects across robots, E2W, electric scooters and off-road vehicles.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot Ltd (689009.SH)

  Primary covered company; Goldman Sachs sees growth from domestic E2W share gains, robotic lawn mowers and overseas expansion.

  Strengths

  Robotic-lawn-mower growth, product R&D, comprehensive portfolio, established brand, offline presence, and continued share gains in E2W and European electric scooters.

  Weaknesses

  E2W and robot-business gross margins faced cost-driven pressure in 1H26.

  Comparison

  Ninebot’s 1H E2W sales and volume growth of 10% and 19% contrasted with a 13% decline in industry volume.

  Risks

  Consumer demand weakness, slower product launches or category expansion, competition, tariffs or anti-dumping duties, and higher raw-material costs.

Key data

• 1H26 revenueRmb14,358mnUp 22% year on year.
• 1H26 net profitRmb1,008mnDown 19% year on year.
• 2Q26 revenue growth28% yoyVersus 15% yoy in 1Q26; 1% above Goldman Sachs estimates.
• 2Q26 net-profit growth2% yoyVersus negative 55% yoy in 1Q26; 8% above Goldman Sachs estimates.
• 2Q26 core operating-profit growth22% yoyVersus negative 22% yoy in 1Q26.
• Robot-business growth~120% yoy in 1H26Mainly robotic lawn mowers; above management’s annual guidance and Goldman Sachs’ doubling-growth expectation.
• 2Q26 gross margin / net margin20.0% / 9.5%Down 1.0ppt / 2.4ppt year on year, affected by cost inflation and FX losses.
• FX losses~Rmb120mn in 2Q26About half the 1Q level, according to the report.
• Domestic E2W shipmentsOver 13mn by end-JulyThe report views this as implying growth acceleration into 3Q26.

Impact & implications

The report argues that stronger robot-business growth and resilient E2W share gains can offset weak industry demand and support a recovery in growth and profits. It also sees product mix, improved FX hedging, new launches and overseas expansion as important supports, although margins remain exposed to costs and currency effects.

Risks

• Weaker macro conditions could reduce disposable income and consumer confidence.
• Product launches or new-category expansion could be slower than expected.
• Competition could intensify in domestic and overseas markets.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties could reduce profitability.
• Raw-material costs could be higher than expected.

What to watch

• Whether robotic lawn mowers sustain growth above management guidance and Goldman Sachs expectations.
• The pace of E2W growth recovery in 3Q26 as new-product revenue contributions increase.
• Domestic E2W shipment momentum following the more than 13mn shipments reported by end-July.
• Margin effects from raw-material costs, product mix, euro exposure and FX hedging.
• Progress in e-bike expansion in developed markets and longer-term E2W adoption in ASEAN.