Robotic lawn mowers drive faster 2Q growth, profitability recovery beats expectations

Overview

Ninebot Ltd.'s 2Q 2026 results exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations, with growth momentum mainly coming from robotic lawn mowers, electric two-wheeler share gains, and steady growth in electric scooters and all-terrain vehicles. 2Q revenue and net profit YoY growth improved to 28% and about 2%, respectively, while core operating profit grew 22% YoY. The rising revenue contribution from high-margin robotic lawn mowers improved the product mix, but raw material costs, euro FX losses and continued increases in R&D investment still pressured margins.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes Ninebot Ltd. is positioned to grow into an emerging global leader in micro-mobility and robotic lawn mowers. The domestic electric two-wheeler business benefits from smart technology R&D, a dual-brand product matrix, channel expansion and membership fee contributions, providing a basis for continued share gains; robotic lawn mowers benefit from the structural trend of replacing traditional lawn mowing equipment and can expand share through brand, product portfolio and offline channels; overseas, electrification of e-bikes in developed markets and electrification of gasoline two-wheelers in Southeast Asia provide room for medium- to long-term growth.

Analysis framework

The report starts from comparing actual results with Goldman Sachs forecasts and YoY/QoQ trends, breaking down revenue, sales volume and gross margin performance for robotics, electric two-wheelers, electric scooters and all-terrain vehicles, while using industry sales volume to assess market share changes; valuation uses a forward exit P/E method, applying a 16x P/E to forecast 2028 EPS and discounting back to 2027 at a 9.5% cost of equity.

Methodology notes

• Earnings analysisActual vs. forecast comparison

  Assess earnings quality through deviations of actual results from Goldman Sachs forecasts as well as YoY and QoQ changes.

  2Q revenue was about 1% above Goldman Sachs' forecast, and net profit was about 8% above; revenue and net profit growth both improved significantly versus 1Q.

• Operating analysisSegment growth and market share analysis

  Identify sources of growth and competitive advantages by combining each business segment's revenue, sales volume, gross margin and industry demand changes.

  Robotic lawn mowers are the main source of incremental growth; electric two-wheelers still achieved sales volume growth against the backdrop of declining industry sales, reflecting market share gains.

• Valuation methodsForward exit P/E method

  Apply a target exit P/E multiple to forward EPS and discount it by the cost of equity.

  The RMB62 12-month target price is based on a 16x exit P/E applied to forecast 2028 EPS and discounted to 2027 at a 9.5% cost of equity.

• M&A assessmentGoldman Sachs M&A ratings framework

  Measure the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3, with 3 corresponding to a low probability of 0% to 15%.

  Ninebot Ltd.'s M&A rating is 3, so M&A factors are considered immaterial and are not incorporated into the target price.

• Research disclosurePotential conflict of interest disclosure

  Evaluate the investment banking business relationship between the research institution and the covered company.

  The report discloses that Goldman Sachs has had an investment banking client relationship with Ninebot Ltd. in the past 12 months and expects or intends to seek investment banking compensation in the next 3 months; the analysts also state under Reg AC that the research views reflect their personal opinions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot Ltd. (689009.SS)

  The Chinese A-share company directly covered by this report, rated Buy.

  Strengths

  High growth in robotic lawn mowers; electric two-wheelers gaining share against the trend; relatively comprehensive product portfolio, brand foundation, R&D capabilities and offline channels; expansion potential in European and Southeast Asian markets.

  Weaknesses

  Profits are relatively sensitive to raw material costs, product mix and exchange rates; gross margins of the electric two-wheeler and robotics businesses were under pressure in 1H; continued increases in R&D investment may limit short-term profit release.

  Comparison

  In 1H, the company's electric two-wheeler sales volume grew about 19% YoY, while industry sales volume declined 13% YoY, showing that its performance significantly outperformed the industry.

  Risks

  Weakening macro consumption, new product launches or new category expansion falling short of expectations, intensified competition at home and abroad, tariffs or anti-dumping duties, rising raw material prices and euro exchange rate fluctuations.

Key data

• 1H 2026 revenueRMB14.358 billion, up 22% YoYAccelerated growth in 2Q was the main support for 1H revenue growth.
• 1H 2026 net profitRMB1.008 billion, down 19% YoY2Q profit returned to positive growth, significantly improving the 1H profit trend.
• 2Q 2026 revenueApproximately RMB8.488 billion, up 28% YoYAbout 1% above Goldman Sachs' forecast; 1Q YoY growth was 15%.
• 2Q 2026 net profitApproximately RMB805 million, up about 2% YoYAbout 8% above Goldman Sachs' forecast; 1Q declined 55% YoY.
• 2Q core operating profitUp 22% YoY1Q declined 22% YoY, indicating a clear improvement in profitability trend.
• Robotics business growthUp about 120% YoY in 1H 2026Mainly driven by sales of new robotic lawn mower products, exceeding both management's full-year guidance and Goldman Sachs' expectations.
• Electric two-wheeler performance1H revenue grew about 10%, sales volume grew about 19%Industry sales volume fell 13% YoY over the same period, with the company significantly outperforming the industry.
• 2Q net margin9.5%, down 2.4 percentage points YoYRising costs and FX losses were drags, while the increased share of high-margin robotic lawn mowers provided a partial offset.
• 2Q FX lossApproximately RMB120 millionMainly related to euro exposure, roughly halved versus 1Q.
• Target price and upsideRMB62, potential upside of 46.4%Current price is RMB42.35, with a 12-month target horizon.

Impact & implications

The 2Q earnings beat validates that Ninebot Ltd. can still achieve relatively fast growth through new products, channel expansion and market share gains even amid weak industry demand. A higher share of robotic lawn mowers is beneficial to the product mix, but sustained profit recovery still depends on easing cost pressure, the effectiveness of FX hedging and the release of economies of scale. If new electric two-wheeler products ramp up smoothly in 3Q and robotic lawn mowers continue to grow above expectations, the gap between the current valuation and the RMB62 target price may gradually narrow.

Risks

• A weakening macro environment may depress disposable income and consumer confidence.
• New product launches or new category expansion may be slower than expected.
• Intensified competition in domestic and overseas markets may affect sales volume, share and margins.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties may weaken the profitability of overseas businesses.
• Higher-than-expected raw material costs may further compress gross margins.
• Euro exposure and exchange rate fluctuations may continue to generate FX losses.

What to watch

• Whether 3Q electric two-wheeler new product revenue contribution and domestic shipment growth continue to accelerate.
• Whether peak-season growth in robotic lawn mowers can be sustained and continue to exceed full-year guidance.
• Changes in raw material costs and the pace of gross margin recovery in the electric two-wheeler and robotics businesses.
• Whether reduced euro exposure and FX hedging measures can further reduce FX losses.
• The pace of expansion in European electric scooters, e-bike businesses and the Southeast Asian electric two-wheeler market.
• Whether increased R&D investment can translate into new product competitiveness, smart technology revenue and overseas market share.