Ninebot's E2W demand recovery, new product ramp-up, and overseas expansion support the Buy rating

Overview

This report summarizes the main views from Ninebot Ltd's investor call on May 13, 2026, with a focus on updates in the electric two-wheeler business, product and channel strategy, demand and margin outlook, and overseas expansion. The report argues that although the market previously worried about weak domestic E2W demand and margin pressure from cost inflation, management's comments reinforced the view that both demand and profitability are improving.

Core views

The core views are: first, domestic E2W demand is showing signs of recovery, and the pre-buying effects caused by replacement incentives and changes to the new national standard are expected to fade gradually in 2H26; second, Ninebot is still likely to outperform the industry and narrow the share gap with leading players thanks to its new product cadence, relatively complete electric motorcycle lineup, and channel upgrades; third, price adjustments and product mix can ease cost pressure, with margin improvement more likely to become visible in 2H26; fourth, Vietnam may become the first scalable market for overseas E2W expansion; fifth, the current low valuation of 16x 2026E P/E already reflects much of the short-term pressure, and a demand recovery plus new product ramp-up could drive re-rating.

Analysis framework

The report combines management call information, industry demand timing, product mix changes, channel-upgrade progress, cost and pricing pass-through, overseas market entry paths, and relative valuation. The valuation section is based on 2028E EPS and a 16x exit P/E, discounted back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity to derive the 12-month target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsExit P/E method

  Derive the target price from forward EPS and an exit P/E multiple

  Goldman Sachs applies a 16x exit P/E multiple to 2028E EPS and discounts it back to 2027E at a 9.5% cost of equity to arrive at the 12-month target price of Rmb62.

• Fundamental analysisDemand, product, channel, and margin framework

  Assess the inflection point from demand recovery, new product contribution, channel upgrades, and cost pass-through

  The report incorporates domestic E2W demand recovery, the summer peak season, new product sales contributions, the rollout of 2.0 stores, price adjustments, and cost pressure, and expects improvement to begin in 2Q26 and become more visible in 2H26.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  The report discloses that Goldman Sachs Factor Profile uses forward sales growth, EBITDA growth, EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and P/E, P/B, and other metrics to compare the stock versus the market and peers by percentile.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot Ltd (689009.SS)

  Coverage name; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating

  Strengths

  Strong product development capability, with smart features and a complete product lineup supporting domestic E2W share gains; channel expansion and a dual-brand strategy broaden coverage; lawn robots and overseas e-bike businesses have structural growth potential.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic E2W demand has previously been weak, cost inflation has pressured gross margin, and same-store sales in some higher-tier cities were affected by the transition to the new national standard.

  Comparison

  Management expects the company to continue outperforming the industry and further narrow the share gap with leading players; versus traditional E2W players, Ninebot has a competitive edge in the completeness of its electric motorcycle lineup.

  Risks

  A weaker macro environment could reduce disposable income and consumer confidence; new product launches or new business expansion could be slower than expected; competition could intensify domestically and overseas; potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties may hurt profitability; raw material costs could be higher than expected.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report reiterates a Buy rating.
• 12-month target priceRmb62Based on a 16x exit P/E on 2028E EPS and discounted to 2027E.
• Current priceRmb40.76Chart-disclosed price basis; the table also shows the April 2, 2026 closing price of Rmb43.48.
• Implied upside52.1%From OCR information in the report chart.
• 2026E revenueRmb26,071.6mnShown in the GS Forecast chart.
• 2026E EPSRmb2.48Shown in the GS Forecast chart.
• 2026E P/E16.4xThe report believes valuation near historical lows already reflects short-term pressure.
• 2028E EPSRmb4.52Forward earnings forecast used as the valuation basis for the target price.
• 2028E P/E9.0xThe GS Forecast chart shows that the valuation multiple declines as earnings grow.

Impact & implications

If management's expectations for demand recovery, new product contribution, and channel upgrades materialize, Ninebot's E2W business is likely to make a positive incremental contribution to financial performance starting in 2Q26, with a more visible release in 2H26. Near-term catalysts include summer peak-season sales, higher contribution from new electric bicycle products, a rising share of electric motorcycles, and the rollout of store upgrades; longer-term themes include continued domestic share gains, structural growth in lawn robots, and overseas expansion in ASEAN and developed markets.

Risks

• A weaker macro environment could reduce disposable income and consumer confidence.
• Product launches or new category expansion could be slower than expected.
• Competition could intensify in domestic and overseas markets.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties could weaken profitability.
• Raw material costs could be higher than expected.
• Overseas expansion requires adaptation to local consumer preferences, and insufficient localized products could affect progress in Vietnam and ASEAN markets.

What to watch

• The intensity of E2W sales during the July-to-September 2026 summer peak season.
• The extent to which new electric bicycle products boost sales after the end of May.
• Changes in the share of electric motorcycles within 2026 revenue mix.
• Same-store sales improvement and the pace of replication to other major cities after the full operation of 2.0 store pilots at the end of May.
• 2Q26 and 2H26 E2W gross margin response to price increases, product mix changes, and cost inflation.
• Progress in dealer partnerships, localized product launches, and electric-vehicle penetration in the Vietnam and ASEAN markets.
• The impact of anti-dumping uncertainty and potential tariffs on overseas margins.