Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating on Ninebot Ltd, sees faster 2Q26 revenue growth and sequential easing of profit pressure

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs preview report on Ninebot Ltd's 2Q26 results. The report expects the company to release its 2Q26 results on August 10. Its core view is that revenue growth will accelerate sequentially, while profit pressure will remain under yoy pressure from foreign exchange and cost headwinds but ease significantly qoq. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and Rmb62 target price, believing that the structural growth thesis, improving product mix, recovery in domestic E2W demand, and easing cost pressures in 2H will drive a re-rating of the stock.

Core views

Goldman Sachs expects Ninebot's 2Q26 revenue to grow 27% yoy, above 1Q26's 15%, with incremental growth mainly from robotic lawn mowers and 2B electric scooters, while E2W, 2C scooters, and all-terrain vehicles continue to deliver strong growth. 2Q26 net profit is expected to decline 5% yoy, a significant improvement from the 55% decline in 1Q26, due to a lower trade balance at European subsidiaries, reduced foreign exchange volatility, enhanced hedging strategies, and a product mix shift toward higher-margin robotic lawn mowers and 2B electric scooters. The report slightly lowers 2026E-2028E EPS by 1%-3%, but believes that the revised cost and foreign exchange assumptions are partly offset by product-mix improvements and that the structural growth thesis remains unchanged.

Analysis framework

The report combines a segment-by-segment preview, a breakdown of profit drivers, and a valuation review: it first assesses revenue trends across E2W, robotic lawn mowers, and electric scooters, then analyzes the impact of cost inflation, foreign exchange, and product mix on margins, and finally uses an exit P/E valuation approach to validate the target price and risk-reward profile.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsexit P/E discounted back

  Exit P/E valuation

  The Rmb62 target price is based on a 16x exit P/E on 2028E EPS, discounted back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  The Goldman Sachs factor profile compares the stock with the covered-stock universe and industry peers across four dimensions: growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

• event_catalystearnings preview catalyst analysis

  Earnings catalyst analysis

  The report focuses on the impact of upcoming quarterly results, improving domestic E2W demand, easing cost and foreign exchange pressures, and developments in the EU anti-dumping investigation into robotic lawn mowers on a potential stock re-rating.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot Ltd (689009.SS)

  Core covered stock

  Strengths

  Accelerating revenue growth, rising E2W share, strong growth in robotic lawn mowers, improving product mix, valuation below historical averages, and support from dividends and buybacks.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term profit remains pressured by foreign exchange and costs, with 2Q26 net profit still expected to decline yoy.

  Comparison

  The share price rose 11% after Investor Day, versus -5% for the CSI300 and 0% for Goldman Sachs coverage on average; valuation is 15.5x 2026E P/E, below the approximately 20x average forward P/E over the past two years.

  Risks

  Weakening macro consumption, slower-than-expected product launches or new-category expansion, intensifying domestic and overseas competition, potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties, and higher-than-expected raw material costs.

• E2W business

  Core domestic growth business

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects 2Q26 growth in the low-to-mid teens yoy despite industry demand pressure, continuing to outperform peers.

  Weaknesses

  Industry demand remains in the recovery phase, with domestic demand down 13% yoy in 1H26.

  Comparison

  The decline in domestic demand narrowed from -17% in 1Q26 to -13% in 1H26, and narrowed further to -4% in June.

  Risks

  The fading of front-loaded demand driven by replacement subsidies and the transition to new national standards; if new products contribute insufficiently, the 2H recovery could fall short of expectations.

• Robotic lawn mowers business

  Structural high-growth business

  Strengths

  Peak-season sales are expected to more than double in 2Q26, supported by rising robot penetration, product mix, and offline channel advantages.

  Weaknesses

  Seasonality is expected to weaken in 2H, and sales contribution may be lower than in 2Q.

  Comparison

  The report views this as a structural growth driver and cites SensorTower app download growth as a demand-tracking indicator.

  Risks

  The EU anti-dumping investigation remains ongoing; final duties could pressure profitability.

• Electric scooters business

  Business contributing to revenue acceleration

  Strengths

  2C growth is supported by rising energy prices in Europe, while 2B is expected to contribute yoy growth in 2Q due to delayed revenue recognition in 1Q.

  Weaknesses

  2B growth may normalize in 2H.

  Comparison

  2Q sales are expected to accelerate from 1Q.

  Risks

  European demand, the timing of revenue recognition, and normalization of 2B orders could affect subsequent growth.

Key data

• 2Q26 expected revenue growth+27% yoyAbove 1Q26's +15% yoy, driven by accelerating growth in robotic lawn mowers and 2B scooters.
• 2Q26 expected net profit growth-5% yoyA significant improvement from 1Q26's -55% yoy.
• Recurring profit excluding foreign exchange effectsDouble-digit growthThe report expects recurring profit to grow by double digits yoy in 2Q26 after excluding foreign exchange losses and the approximately Rmb180mn foreign exchange gain in the same period last year.
• Current valuation15.5x 2026E P/EBelow the approximately 20x average forward P/E over the past two years.
• Dividend yield4%The report identifies the dividend yield as one of the factors supporting the risk-reward profile.
• Share buyback planRmb150-300mnFor cancellation, implying approximately 0.5%-1% shareholder returns.
• Target priceRmb62The 12-month target price remains unchanged.
• EPS forecast revisionDown 1%-3% for 2026E-2028EReflecting adjustments to cost and foreign exchange assumptions, partly offset by product-mix improvements.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implications are positive overall: in the short term, a narrower 2Q26 profit decline and marginal improvement in demand, costs, and foreign exchange in 2H could serve as re-rating catalysts; over the medium to long term, the company's scope for share gains in domestic E2W, robotic lawn mowers, overseas E-Bikes, and electrification in emerging markets continues to support growth. Key uncertainties include weak macro consumption, intensifying competition, tariffs or anti-dumping duties, higher-than-expected raw material costs, and slower-than-expected expansion of new products or businesses.

Risks

• A weaker macro environment could reduce disposable income and consumer confidence.
• Product launches or new-category expansion could be slower than expected.
• Competition could intensify in domestic and overseas markets.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties could pressure profitability.
• Raw material costs could be higher than expected.
• Foreign exchange could remain a yoy drag, particularly given the high foreign exchange gain base in the same period last year.

What to watch

• Whether the improvement in revenue growth and sequential profit performance materializes following the 2Q26 results release on August 10.
• Whether domestic E2W demand continues to recover in 2H26, particularly through new-product contributions and base effects.
• Whether cost inflation gradually eases following price increases, product-mix improvements, and declining input prices.
• The impact of EUR/CNY volatility, European subsidiary trade balances, and hedging strategies on financial expenses.
• The final outcome of the EU anti-dumping investigation into Chinese robotic lawn mowers.
• Progress in executing the Rmb150-300mn cancellation share buyback and delivery of shareholder returns.