MLCC market and electronic components sector: August MLCC exports dipped seasonally, but AI-led demand and rising ASPs keep JPMorgan positive

Overview

This trade-statistics update assesses August 2026 MLCC demand through Japan’s exports by end market and destination. JPMorgan concludes that the monthly decline reflects Obon holidays and a reversal after strong July growth, while year-on-year growth, higher selling prices and Taiwan’s AI-related demand continue to support the industry outlook.

Core views

Japan’s August MLCC exports weakened sequentially, but JPMorgan does not view this as a change in the underlying growth trend. Total export volume was 88.198 billion units, down 6.1% year on year and 16.5% month on month; export value was US$461.2 million, up 15.5% year on year but down 12.3% month on month. The report notes that the typical 10-year August seasonal pattern is a 4.0% month-on-month increase in volume and a 4.8% increase in export value, making the August outcome unusually weak. It attributes this to Obon and other summer holidays as well as a pullback after July’s sharp rise. Despite the monthly decline, export value remained in double-digit year-on-year growth and continued to rise on trend in both yen and US-dollar terms. ASP increased to US$0.52, up 23.0% year on year and 4.9% month on month, supporting the view that value growth remains intact. IT-related destinations are the main source of strength. Across China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and India, export value totaled US$354.4 million, up 24.4% year on year despite a 10.1% monthly decline; ASP was US$0.48, up 34.0% year on year and 7.2% month on month. The August sequential decline was below the historical seasonal norm, but JPMorgan sees the trend line as strongly upward. Taiwan was the standout: export value rose 43.8% year on year to US$85.9 million, while ASP reached US$0.64, up 56.0% year on year and 14.3% month on month. July and August Taiwan exports reached unprecedented levels, which the report interprets as confirmation of strong AI-related demand. Hong Kong export value rose 42.1% year on year, China rose 13.1%, South Korea rose 9.5%, and Vietnam rose 21.0%, although all declined month on month except India, where export value increased 1.9%. Automotive-linked exports present a contrasting picture. For Europe, principally Germany and the Netherlands, and the US, volume was 8.853 billion units, down 3.1% year on year and 15.2% month on month. Export value was US$64.5 million, down 13.2% year on year and 14.8% month on month, while ASP was US$0.73, down 10.4% year on year and broadly flat sequentially. Both volume and value fell short of historical August patterns that normally show month-on-month increases. JPMorgan sees US exports as broadly range-bound and Europe as in a slight downtrend, creating a modest regional divergence rather than a broad automotive recovery. The report also links overseas trade data to company production and demand indicators: South Korean exports may reflect SEMCO’s domestic-plant activity; China imports are viewed as an indicator of overall MLCC demand; Taiwan imports help gauge IT and AI demand; and Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore trade statistics may help track production at Murata Manufacturing’s Thailand and Singapore plants and Taiyo Yuden’s Malaysia plant. The July-August average dollar export value was about 12% above the April-June average, leading JPMorgan to infer continued strong quarter-on-quarter sales growth in July-September. It further argues that overseas MLCC producers’ progress in price negotiations raises the likelihood that Japanese manufacturers will also begin raising prices. On that basis, it maintains a positive stance on Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden and TDK, with Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden as top picks.

Analysis framework

JPMorgan uses Japanese and overseas MLCC trade statistics to separate demand by IT and automotive applications and by destination. It compares monthly and annual changes in export volume, value and ASP against 10-year seasonal patterns, then uses regional trade flows as indicators of AI demand, automotive demand and selected manufacturers’ production activity.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Trade-data analysis of MLCC export volume, export value and average selling price by application and destination.

  The report separates changes in units, dollar value and ASP to determine whether demand strength reflects shipment volumes, pricing, or both. Rising ASPs, especially for Taiwan, are central evidence for its positive demand interpretation.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Regional MLCC export and import flows as indicators of end-market demand and manufacturing activity.

  JPMorgan uses IT-oriented Asian destinations, automotive-oriented Europe and US destinations, and selected overseas trade flows to infer demand conditions and production trends across the MLCC supply chain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Murata Manufacturing (6981)

  Top pick and Japanese MLCC manufacturer positioned to benefit from sustained MLCC demand and potential price increases.

  Strengths

  JPMorgan cites strong IT and AI-related demand, rising ASPs, and Thailand and Singapore trade data as useful production references for Murata.

  Comparison

  One of JPMorgan’s preferred Japanese MLCC names alongside Taiyo Yuden; the report maintains a positive stance on Murata, Taiyo Yuden and TDK.

  Risks

  Exposure to weaker automotive-linked demand, particularly in Europe.

• Taiyo Yuden (6976)

  Top pick and Japanese MLCC manufacturer positioned to benefit from sustained MLCC demand and potential price increases.

  Strengths

  JPMorgan cites strong IT and AI-related demand and identifies Malaysia trade data as a useful production reference for Taiyo Yuden.

  Comparison

  One of JPMorgan’s preferred Japanese MLCC names alongside Murata Manufacturing; the report also maintains a positive stance on TDK.

  Risks

  Exposure to weaker automotive-linked demand, particularly in Europe.

• TDK (6762)

  Japanese MLCC manufacturer included in JPMorgan’s maintained positive stance.

  Strengths

  Potential benefit from continued MLCC value growth and a higher likelihood of Japanese producer price increases.

  Comparison

  JPMorgan maintains a positive stance on TDK together with Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden, but identifies Murata and Taiyo Yuden as top picks.

  Risks

  Exposure to weaker automotive-linked demand, particularly in Europe.

Key data

• Total MLCC export volume, August 202688.198 billion units-6.1% YoY and -16.5% MoM.
• Total MLCC export value, August 2026US$461.2 million+15.5% YoY and -12.3% MoM.
• Total MLCC ASP, August 2026US$0.52+23.0% YoY and +4.9% MoM.
• IT-related MLCC export valueUS$354.4 million+24.4% YoY and -10.1% MoM.
• Taiwan MLCC export valueUS$85.9 million+43.8% YoY and -8.6% MoM.
• Taiwan MLCC ASPUS$0.64+56.0% YoY and +14.3% MoM.
• Automotive-related MLCC export valueUS$64.5 million-13.2% YoY and -14.8% MoM.
• July-August average export value versus April-June averageAbout +12%US-dollar basis; supports JPMorgan’s view of strong July-September quarter-on-quarter sales growth.

Impact & implications

The report argues that AI-related IT demand and improving MLCC pricing outweigh the temporary August export decline. It sees potential price increases by Japanese MLCC manufacturers as an additional support, while weak European automotive-linked demand remains the principal area of relative softness.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan-bound MLCC exports and ASPs remain at elevated levels as an indicator of AI-related IT demand.
• Whether overseas producers’ price negotiations lead Japanese MLCC manufacturers to raise prices.
• Whether export trends to Europe continue to weaken relative to the broadly flat US automotive trend.
• Regional MLCC trade flows in China, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore as indicators of demand and production conditions.