South Korea memory pricing Report Interpretation

Overview

This South Korea memory-pricing tracker compares TrendForce's August forecasts with Goldman Sachs estimates for DRAM and NAND. The report finds broad alignment with a still-positive memory-price outlook, while identifying a temporary slowdown in mobile DRAM momentum.

Core views

TrendForce raised its 3Q26 PC DRAM pricing forecast to 18–23% quarter-on-quarter from 15–20%, slightly above Goldman Sachs's 17% estimate for the average PC DRAM price of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In August, DDR4 8GB and DDR5 8GB contract prices each increased 2% month-on-month, to US$142 and US$133 respectively. DDR5 therefore remained at a 6% discount to DDR4, unchanged from July. The report treats the revised PC forecast as supportive of its own broadly constructive memory-price assumptions. For server DRAM, TrendForce maintained a 13–18% quarter-on-quarter 3Q26 pricing-growth forecast. Goldman Sachs's expectation for the average server DRAM price at Samsung and SK Hynix is 18%, placing its view at the upper end of that range. August DDR4 64GB module pricing was unchanged at US$1,295, while DDR5 64GB rose 1% month-on-month to US$1,500. The resulting DDR5 premium over DDR4 widened by 1 percentage point to 16%, from 15% in July. Spot-market indicators cited in the report also show DDR5 16Gb spot pricing at a 16% premium to the latest contract price and DDR4 8Gb spot pricing at a 43% premium. Mobile DRAM is the main area of relative moderation. TrendForce forecasts 8–13% quarter-on-quarter growth in 3Q26, below its 70–83% growth estimate for 2Q26 and slightly below Goldman Sachs's 14% expectation for Samsung and SK Hynix. TrendForce attributes the deceleration to temporarily weaker procurement momentum caused by higher customer inventory. It nevertheless expects positive pricing to persist because suppliers are directing capacity toward server DRAM and HBM, and forecasts mobile DRAM growth to slow further to 0–5% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q26 while solid pricing continues into 2027. For mobile NAND, 3Q26 eMMC/UFS 256GB contract pricing rose around 20% quarter-on-quarter. This is consistent with Goldman Sachs's 15–20% quarter-on-quarter forecast for overall NAND pricing. On the combined evidence, the report concludes that its DRAM and NAND estimates are largely in line with TrendForce and reiterates Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The report also states company-specific valuation approaches. For Samsung Electronics common shares, Goldman Sachs uses a 12-month 2026–2027E EV/EBITDA-based sum-of-the-parts target price of W490,000; the preference-share target is W360,000, based on a 27% target discount to common shares. For SK Hynix, it uses a 2026E/27E average P/E-based 12-month target price of W3,500,000 using a 9.0x target P/E multiple.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs tracks contract and spot memory-price indicators, compares TrendForce's segment-level quarterly forecasts with its own estimates, and explains differences through demand conditions, customer inventories and supplier capacity allocation toward server DRAM and HBM. It applies company-specific valuation frameworks for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Memory supply-demand analysis

  The report links pricing to demand, customer inventory and suppliers' allocation of capacity toward server DRAM and HBM.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  EV/EBITDA-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Samsung Electronics

  Goldman Sachs derives Samsung Electronics' common-share target price using a 12-month 2026–2027E EV/EBITDA-based SOTP framework.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  P/E-based valuation for SK Hynix

  Goldman Sachs derives SK Hynix's 12-month target price from the average of its 2026E and 2027E P/E valuation using a 9.0x target multiple.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  Explicitly Buy-rated memory supplier expected to benefit from constructive DRAM and NAND pricing.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects average PC and server DRAM prices to rise 17% and 18%, respectively, in 3Q26.

  Weaknesses

  Mobile DRAM pricing momentum is expected to slow as customer inventories remain elevated.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs's segment price expectations are largely aligned with TrendForce; its 14% mobile DRAM estimate is above TrendForce's 8–13% range.

  Risks

  Major deterioration in memory supply/demand, sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and mobile OLED market-share loss.

• Samsung Electronics (Pref) (005935.KS)

  Explicitly Buy-rated preference share linked to Samsung Electronics' common-share valuation.

  Strengths

  The report assigns a W360,000 12-month target price based on a 27% target discount to common shares.

  Weaknesses

  Its valuation depends on the preference-share discount to common shares.

  Comparison

  The target discount is derived by averaging the two-factor-model preferred discount and the average preferred-share discount over the prior month.

  Risks

  Major deterioration in memory supply/demand, sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and mobile OLED market-share loss.

• SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

  Explicitly Buy-rated memory supplier expected to benefit from constructive DRAM and NAND pricing.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs forecasts 17% PC DRAM, 18% server DRAM and 14% mobile DRAM average-price growth in 3Q26; its 12-month target price is W3,500,000 based on 9.0x average 2026E/27E P/E.

  Weaknesses

  Demand for conventional memory is sensitive to smartphones, PCs and servers.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs's mobile DRAM assumption is slightly above TrendForce's 8–13% forecast, while server DRAM assumptions are aligned.

  Risks

  Memory supply-demand deterioration, delayed technology migration, weaker end-market demand, stronger Samsung HBM progress, and lower AI-related capital expenditure.

Key data

• PC DRAM 3Q26 pricing forecast+18–23% QoQTrendForce forecast, raised from +15–20%; Goldman Sachs estimates +17% for Samsung and SK Hynix average PC DRAM pricing.
• Server DRAM 3Q26 pricing forecast+13–18% QoQTrendForce forecast; Goldman Sachs expects +18% for Samsung and SK Hynix average server DRAM pricing.
• Mobile DRAM 3Q26 pricing forecast+8–13% QoQTrendForce forecast versus +70–83% in 2Q26; Goldman Sachs estimates +14% for Samsung and SK Hynix.
• Mobile DRAM 4Q26 pricing forecast+0–5% QoQTrendForce expects further deceleration, while expecting solid pricing to continue in 2027.
• Mobile NAND 3Q26 pricingAround +20% QoQeMMC/UFS 256GB contract pricing; consistent with Goldman Sachs's +15–20% overall NAND forecast.
• DDR5 server-module premium16%DDR5 64GB priced at US$1,500 in August versus DDR4 64GB at US$1,295; premium rose from 15% in July.

Impact & implications

The report's segment forecasts support Goldman Sachs's constructive memory-price assumptions for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The key near-term qualification is a mobile DRAM slowdown caused by elevated customer inventories, partly offset by suppliers prioritizing server DRAM and HBM capacity.

Risks

• Memory supply-demand could deteriorate materially.
• A sharp contraction in smartphone margins or loss of mobile OLED market share could affect Samsung Electronics.
• Delayed technology migration or weaker smartphone, PC and server demand could reduce conventional-memory demand for SK Hynix.
• Stronger Samsung HBM progress or lower AI-related capital expenditure could reduce SK Hynix HBM revenue and profit.

What to watch

• Whether PC DRAM pricing achieves TrendForce's revised 18–23% quarter-on-quarter 3Q26 forecast.
• The extent and duration of mobile DRAM procurement weakness caused by elevated customer inventories.
• Whether supplier capacity allocation toward server DRAM and HBM sustains pricing into 2027.
• Mobile DRAM's expected deceleration to 0–5% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q26.